Tiho Brkan Profile picture
15 Sep, 12 tweets, 3 min read
1/ One of the strangest things, at least for me, to read on FinTwit is the following statement:

“Even though stocks are expensive, bonds yield next to nothing, so there are is alternative.”

Umm 🤔... yes there is.

They are called alternative assets for a reason.
2/ • single family & multifamily RE
• self storage & multi-use property
• precious metals
• precious metal mining companies
• litigation financing
• invoice financing
• senior private credit
• private equity & venture capital
• art & collectables
3/ • construction senior debt
• construction mezzanine debt
• agricultural private equity
• farmland (grains & softs)
• joint ventures & partnerships
• long/short hedge funds
• volatility based hedge funds
• star manager hedge funds
• emerging market tourism RE
4/ • international cash deposits
• infrastructure private equity
• infrastructure private debt
• alternative energy investments
• crowdfunding & peer2peer
• small & medium sizes businesses
• e-commerce private business
• foreign exchange investments
• energy MLPs
5/ I’m sure I’ve missed a lot. Here are some background stories.

A German family I know invest into beef + avocado farms & soybean crops in Argentina.

Gentleman I talked with last week left AU to Silicon Valley with nothing, did a start up, made millions on a successful exit.
6/ My own family focuses on importing high end materials around the world & helping clients build/renovate luxury homes. We also do our own projects, too.

My best friend started a mining exploration company, later expanded it to mining traffic control company. Made millions.
7/ I rent my penthouse in Malta. My landlord owns the whole building, and several other buildings around the island. He made a fortune in multifamily real estate.

I was on a boat sailing local islands last week with a son of a family that made wealth in energy & oil business.
8/ Today I was a on telephone conversation with a gentleman from the States who is interested to diversify his portfolio into UK real estate debt.

My mentor made a fortune in Sydney (Aus) real estate & passed away at an old age with $150 million having never touched stocks.
9/ Ex-client from German made a fortune investing in renewable energy and wind farms. He did projects in Australia, South Africa and few other places.

My ex-girlfriend in HK is half Chinese half America. Her father moved from Boston to Shanghai in 1974, everyone said his crazy.
10/ He ended up making over 500 million and IPO his company on the exchange several years back. Was originally a lawyer, speaks perfect Mandarin & English, had a client called Proctor & Gamble (you might know them) and when he couldn’t find them a fragrance supplier...
11/ ...he ended up started his own company / manufacturing business in Tainjin and eventually grew it to a monster. Never invested in stocks.

What’s the point of the list I made and the stories I shared?

Firstly, wanted to share these stories as inspiration of what’s possible!
12/ Secondly, Wall Street is trying to convince you stocks are the only way to invest.

I have travelled half of the world!& met many successful people. Obviously, I’m still young but I’m yet to meet a person who got RICH of stocks.

No one used shares as a vehicle to success.

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More from @TihoBrkan

20 Sep
Interview worth reading for all.

“Within the next 5 years you could see a situation in which foreigners who have been lending money to the US won’t want to, and the dollar would not be as readily accepted for making purchases in the world as it is now.”

For example, the United States lost a lot of the education advantage relative to other countries, our share of world GDP is reduced, the wealth gap has increased which has contributed to our political and social polarization.
The U.S. is in the late stages of a debt cycle and money cycle in which we’re producing a lot of debt and printing a lot of money. That’s a problem. As a reserve currency status, the U.S. dollar is still dominant though its being threatened.
Read 18 tweets
9 Sep
1/ Is there a way to gauge future expected returns for the US stock market?

What could the returns look like a couple of years from now, and more importantly, 5-year or even 10-year from today?

How could we gauge the risk to reward conditions in the US stocks today?

Thread. 👇
2/ In this thread, we are going to leave bullish & bearish narratives aside, and just focus on valuations — which have historically been the most reliable indicator of future returns.

Please keep in mind that no indicators are perfect & history doesn't necessarily repeat.
3/ We are going to start off with short term predictability, which is extremely difficult to trust.

Let's face it, markets can be swayed by sentiment & macroeconomic shifts over the short term, however, they eventually mean-revert over the very long term.
Read 19 tweets
30 Aug
1/ Thread on the US technology sector. $QQQ $XLK

Every man & his dog know tech is outperforming other sectors, the market cap of several tech companies has exceeded the GDP of many countries & the retail investors are jumping on the easy money bandwagon.

So, is tech a bubble?
2/ The short answer: I don't know.

The long answer?

Let us have a look at charts, data points & trends to decide whether the Tech sector — at this moment in time — is a good long term investment opportunity based on the "weight of evidence approach."
3/ Before I start, it is worth noting that we aren't expert growth investor, nor married to this narrative alone.

So while we lack expertise & god-given status, we allocate capital to many different sectors (for diversification) based on a bit of common sense & objectivity.
Read 23 tweets
27 Aug
In personal finance, we discuss disciplined spending, forced saving, frugality, the FIRE movement, investing strategies, asset classes, emergency funds & so forth.

But you don't see many financial advisors discussing the "utility of money" at different ages.

If you keep on dollar-cost averaging into your 401k, by 65 or 70 — yes — you probably will have enough to retire on, but the utility of that money is going to be very low.

You might have the time & the money, but you won't have the energy or excitement like your younger self.
On the other hand, at 32-38 the utility of money is possibly at its peak.

You are in your prime, still extremely healthy & strong, enough stamina, and even some wisdom.

At this point in your life, being frugal & denying yourself wonderful experiences is just silly.
Read 7 tweets
26 Aug
Real estate has incredible flexibility & optionality.

Maximize returns?

Invest with equity, add high leverage, focus on add value or development.

Protect downside?

Expose to the (senior or mezz) debt during times when valuations are too high, locking in a fixed return.

Invest in different sectors such as residential, commercial, industrial or mixed-use.

Exposure yourself to different parts of the capital stack, either earning interest or airing capital gains.

Focus on different cities, countries regions, currency denominations.
Build a team and a business?

Develop a team of worthy assistants, partners, and consultants from agents/brokers to risk underwriters, contractors, bankers & lawyers.

All of them are there to help you see your investment succeed and/or your project vision through.
Read 5 tweets
13 Aug
I tweet a lot about finances. Here is a tweet that won’t make you rich, but might be of very high benefit:

• walk 10,000 steps a day

• exercise everyday

• read something outside of your interest or career field

• live by sea/ocean at some stage in your life

• don’t live to work (Western capitalism) but instead work to live (European la dolce vita)

• travel

• worth saying it again: travel and see the world, try new foods, meeting new people or experience different cultures, religions & traditions (you’ll grow)
• learn to be a contrarian, at least sometimes (don’t follow or be part of group think)

• spend money and time on experiences & relationships, because 10 years from now you’ll still remember & talk about them (not your fancy watch)
Read 12 tweets

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