Tiho Brkan Profile picture
Family office with global focus on stock market & direct investing (mezzanine, RE value adds, alternative funds, distressed deals, litigation, emerging markets)
Leo Profile picture Cameron Priest Profile picture Gilbert Bagaoisan 🤖 Profile picture Sumanth Profile picture Mayank Rawat Profile picture 26 added to My Authors
7 Oct
For years, I’ve read macro newsletters which held views of deflationary forces.

These academically gifted people, majority of whom never practiced what they wrote, were convinced deflation would persist because Treasury bonds were rising (yields were falling).
Quick example.

We are fortune enough to be invested in real estate in 4 different jurisdictions, on 3 different continents.

Over the last few years, especially last few months, all I’ve seen is rise in prices.

Even this morning I received a letter from Czech electricity…
…giant telling me they are permanently rising prices from today.

My local builders in various countries tell me the cost of materials is up by 20-30%, in some cases much more.

I run my Twitter as a investing journal of everything I’ve done and learned over the years, and…
Read 5 tweets
2 Oct
Recent HNWI & FO survey takeaways:

• 7 out 10 respondents said achieving capital gains (not income) is the most important aspect when allocating to new alternative assets

• Many families are simply seeking good opportunities wherever they arise (not running a fixed portfolio)
• portfolio diversification (various funds, managers, global regions, asset classes, etc) and generating outsize returns are front of mind for most HNWIs & FOs

• In terms of sectors, Techonology is still the key focus, with the ongoing demand for venture capital deals/funds
• The key for most families is having access to the best-performing managers (most want to know that the fund managers they back are real rising stars)

• In times of crisis special situations & distressed credit funds should be an area of interest, and they have been popular
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
Basic technical analysis notes. $BABA

Weekly first. As oversold today as on two previous occasions: 2015 RMB devaluation & 2018 trade war.

Momentum most oversold since IPO, volumes spikes highest since IPO.

We like to buy oversold when others panic (volume spikes)!
The long-term daily chart next.

A cluster of support levels between $130 and $150 price range.

Recent panic selling saw the lowest relative strength & momentum on record.

Price is very far from the 1-year mean (red line), indicating the possibility of a mean reversion.
Alibaba's HK price is up over 7% today.

Typical price thrust anticipated by bullish divergences everywhere.

Selling exhaustion seems to have run course. Why?

The onslaught of bad news out of China, yet $KWEB not making new lows!

Bears "had" their moment of glory. Is it over?
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
Evergrande should have defaulted years ago, so this isn't a surprise.

As an investor, I do hope the Chinese don't follow the footsteps of the West, especially the Europeans, who bailed everything and everyone out — creating a zombie economy.

Market pain creates opportunities.
Risks haven't been there for only a month, they have been there for a long time.

If the Chinese economy goes through a property market de-leveraging, it will be very painful in the short term, but create a fantastic buying opportunity.

These are the sort of headlines (back in 2012) you can expect near the market lows — exactly when you should be buying.

The worse the news gets for Chinese equities in the short term, the more bullish we become over the long term.

Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
Alibaba and Tencent have been our focus in the public market as of late.

Here is what is important right now:

Successful retest or even a slight dip below August lows, despite the continued news, will be a sign most of the bad news has been discounted.

$BABA $TCEHY
If the price doesn't stop at the August low, and a retest fails, we expect both companies to sell off towards the next support level.

That could mean Alibaba at $130 and Tencent at $40.

Neither of these tweets is a prediction, just our simple probabilistic thinking approach.
Further downside remains a possibility considering S&P 500 $SPX is acting weak right now.

The index breadth is deteriorating and the $VIX is making equal & higher lows since July, not confirm the S&P's rise.

Being prepared for multiple outcomes doesn't hurt a prudent investor.
Read 5 tweets
14 Sep
Trying to make a video of that amazingly famous blood orange sunset in the #Mediterranean.

No filters needed here!
Maltese cliffs and that amazing sunset 🌅
Good food with good wine and a good view = good times!

🌊 ☀️ 🦞 🐟 🏝 🍷
Read 7 tweets
10 Sep
To become a great investor, focus on a multidisciplinary mindset (become a generalist).

"Most of us study something specific and don’t get exposure to the big ideas of other disciplines. We don’t develop the multidisciplinary mindset that we need to accurately see a problem."
"An engineer will often think in terms of systems by default.

A psychologist will think in terms of incentives.

A business person might think in terms of opportunity cost & risk-reward.

Through their disciplines, each of these people sees part of the situation."
Applying a "multidisciplinary mindset" forces inspiring portfolio managers to have knowledge in psychology & human behavior, ancient & modern history, fundamental securities analysis, accounting, macroeconomics, experience in negotiating, running a business, and so much more.
Read 10 tweets
7 Sep
Our portfolio allocation is somewhat planned, but to a great extent very much accidental, as it's based upon "value" offered in different assets, regions & capital stack positions at any given time in the cycle.

In other words, it is more of an art than science.
It can be added that many other market participants do not behave under such mandate, since they are far more authoritarian in their allocation approach.

Rather than searching for value currently on offer, they'll keep buying overpriced assets as it's within their comfort zone.
Flexibility & patience are our edges to mitigate risks & outperform.

As public equities become overpriced we're likely to sidestep into real estate. And when it becomes overpriced, we'll consider special niches like litigation funding, mezzanine debt, or distressed PE deals.
Read 5 tweets
5 Sep
US gov subsidies mortgage lending. At that point, rates drop meaningfully. Credit is extremely easy to get. It leads to constant boom & bust cycles.

In the AU, UK, Singapore, NZ & parts of the EU, private lenders fill the funding gap & demand appropriate levels of compensation.
Furthermore, the tax code dictates how capital allocators behave in the real estate market in general.

In the US, equity is the preferred way of playing because it has exemptions on CGT via 1031. Plus depreciation advantages, too.

No other country has that...
...so many sophisticated players, who try to gauge the risks (and not just the rewards), switch between equity & debt allocations.

Equity has more upside but comes with more risk & higher taxes (unlikely in the US). Debt has less upside, more downside protection & lower taxes.
Read 4 tweets
5 Sep
One of our favorite strategies is a bridging or mezzanine loan as a 2nd registered lien, yielding over 15% pa (we did even up to 22%).

These are very attractive investments benefiting from experienced sponsors, great locations & collateral asset backing.

Few examples. 👇
Read 5 tweets
31 Aug
If we think in probabilities we conclude US stocks rarely crash or underperform for long periods. Most of the time, it's a good bet.

However, this might be one of those rare times just like 1929, 37, 68, 99 & 2007.

Is the probability in the bull's favor, by taking a bet here?
Clearly not. But the chart by @TaviCosta has some drawbacks.

1. made by an investor who is biased: favors gold over stocks for many years

2. situation looks risky but could get even worse, especially because it's in CB's interest

3. while I doubt it, could end up a non-event
How are we playing things at this stage?

Despite being extremely expensive by any historical metric, US stocks could continue to rally. I would never bet against them, that's a sucker's game.

Instead, we are focused on uncorrelated alternative assets & are also buying things...
Read 9 tweets
30 Aug
Many investors have decided markets cannot be beaten.

“Even Warren Buffett is often wrong” with his investments, they say.

But to quote George Soros, “it’s not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.”
We study great investors like Soros, Buffett, Munger, Icahn, Tepper, Ackman, Druckenmiller, Burry, Lu…

not as gurus who will get everything right, but to analyse how they managed to execute large wins, when probability was in their favour, by making concentrated bets.
If you want an average return for 40 years with a nest egg in your 401k at retirement, index funds are good for you.

If you want extraordinary returns, you will only need a few “sure things” or home runs in your lifetime.

Everything else can be small losses or break evens.
Read 5 tweets
28 Aug
Mohnish Pabrai nails this:

"If you have $10,000 and you haven't been able to compound it at 30-40% for a long time, then you shouldn't even think about starting a fund or raising capital."

But of course, asset gathering & AUM is a shortcut to wealth in the finance industry. 😂
He continues:

"If you have an engine which is getting you high CAGR the power of compounding is such that if you never raised any funds, you will still be enormously wealthy.

The criteria for getting into the fundraising business is you should already be independently wealthy."
I completely agree with this!

This is also why I disagree with so many hedge fund managers, real estate GPs, newsletters, and those selling courses encouraging others to get fast riches on the back of other people's savings without a proven track record with their own money.
Read 4 tweets
28 Aug
Over $9 billion of futures turned net long the $USD this week, while the greenback turned south.

We believe the short squeeze is over, as the DXY index failed to make a higher high.

Plenty of dry powder out there for hedge funds to start piling on short contracts again.
Just a reminder, weak $USD has often helped:

• EM outperform DM
• commodities rise
• miners & oil co's do well
• small caps outperform large caps
• foreign real estate outperform
• precious metals outperform S&P
We continue to hold an overweight to the British Pound since 2019, which we believe has entered long term uptrend.

Assets denominated in GBP include development finance (mezz loans), litigation funding, private equity, and other attractive niche investments made over the years.
Read 4 tweets
25 Aug
My tweets are a journal of where I’m putting my capital, so don’t blindly follow me without DD & research.

I won’t do newsletters, capital raising without skin in the game, fleecing LPs with 50% promotes, gathering AUM masquerading as investors & other dubious finance practices.
Newsletter writers need to promote action, advice, tips and new ideas for their clientele to trade every week or month.

I bought some stocks first time since September last year. No one will subscribe to sub stack where every week I tell them most assets are not attractive. 😂
You also have these real estate GPs & fund managers who are convinced they can find great deals after a 12 year bull market where valuations are at nose bleed levels and CAP rates are at record lows.

Every new deal they raise, your money is making them HUGE fees & promotes.
Read 5 tweets
20 Aug
The way we look at it, the vast majority of the China tech regulation is currently being discounted into the price as investors panic and the sector is down -60% from its all-time high.

When it comes to US & EU tech regulations, that is where REAL risks await at all-time highs.
Amazon is looking very weak here.

The company's stock consolidated for a while & finally attempted to break above the $3,500 resistance only to fail

This is known as a "2b pattern" or a "bull trap."

Bull traps are often followed by sharp moves in the opposite direction. $AMZN
And of course, the cherry on top is Cramer is now recommending Amazon as a buy — the same way he recommended "Alibaba as a buy & hold" before it had its sharp correction due to tech regulation. $AMZN $BABA
Read 4 tweets
19 Aug
It only took a few weeks...
My mentor used to remind me...

"If you get your financial advice from the TV you'll probably lose half of your money, if you get it from the CFO and believe their accounting, you might lose it all."

😂
He liked Alibaba at $220 when we didn't, but doesn't like it near $150s handle when we do.

“There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
Read 5 tweets
16 Aug
"A drop-off in migration rates during the pandemic means Australia has an oversupply of houses. But still, prices are skyrocketing."

Australian housing prices are through the roof even though immigration collapsed, creating a huge oversupply.

The lowest mortgage rates since WW2 are creating artificial speculation. However, local debt can only be fixed for 5 years, after that one is exposed to rate risks.
Some charts to share:

• collapse in net migration since Covid started
• current oversupply of housing
• record-low mortgage rates (fixable up to 5yrs)
• booming house prices around the country
Read 4 tweets
9 Aug
I just put this together in 10 mins.

Give me a few hours and I'll blow your mind regarding how bad the sentiment on Chinese stocks really is.

Do we buy when the news flow is great or do we buy when it is awful? $KWEB $BABA $TCEHY
What is Cathie's track record here?

Let's see, she buys near the top and sells at the bottom.

Over two cycles she purchased millions of $JD shares near or even after the peak, only to dump them in the capitulation bottom.

Buy at the top, sell at the bottom. Sound strategy?
Read 4 tweets
8 Aug
Indonesia and China are closer to reducing their reliance on the US dollar as they plan to start using their own currencies for bilateral trade and investment within weeks.

thejakartapost.com/news/2021/06/2….
The European Commission said it would seek to boost the international role of the euro and build European financial infrastructure so that the EU becomes more independent of outside financial centres and the dominance of the U.S. dollar.

reuters.com/article/us-eu-…
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov began a visit to China with a call for Moscow and Beijing to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar and Western payment systems.

asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter…
Read 8 tweets
7 Aug
Maybe you're a new follower, so just to be transparent — I did buy, right at the bottom in late March.

And we bought some other stuff along the way. Real-time tweets are below. 👇
I personally backed up a truck on small-cap value ETF, which more than doubled from the lows.

Here is the thread. 👇

We were also mega bullish on Oil & Gas small caps between late September and early November of 2020.

Few posts like these were written on the daily, showing just how attractive the sector was.👇

Read 6 tweets