Baseless and false cooling predictions are a regular feature of the smoke screen that climate denialists are putting up - I've seen at least a dozen of those during my career. A couple of examples follow. washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
A main type of false cooling forecasts is due to the fact that solar activity has been trending down for decades. But that only slightly slows down #GlobalWarming. Here I discussed an egregious example, which is even more wrong with recent data added: realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
And then there is the notorious Russian (or Polish or Siberian or whatever) scientist predicts... story. This is a classic example for how these work: realclimate.org/index.php/arch…

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More from @rahmstorf

15 Sep
Und nun die Wettervorhersage für Dienstag, den 15. September...
Es freut mich, dass viele hier auf den Unterschied von Wetter und Klima hinweisen! Aber wussten Sie auch, dass der Klimawandel inzwischen schon im täglichen Wetter nachweisbar ist? ethz.ch/de/news-und-ve…
Wer sich für die langfristige Temperaturentwicklung in 🇩🇪 interessiert:
Read 6 tweets
17 Aug
News about the death of the Greenland Ice Sheet is greatly exaggerated. What the new paper shows is an observed increase in solid ice discharge into the ocean, which has been at a higher rate than before during the past 15 years. The authors basically say: if this continues, ...
...then the Greenland Ice Sheet will continue to lose mass.
But due to that, the ice front retreats from the ocean, as nicely shown e.g. in Andy Aschwanden's detailed simulations:
And when the ice loses contact with the ocean, the ice discharge stops.
The tipping point for losing the Greenland Ice Sheet altogether therefore depends on surface melt permanently exceeding snowfall and does not involve solid ice discharge. Whether this real tipping point of Greenland has been crossed, we do not know.
Read 7 tweets
11 Aug
Gern, aber was genau ist der Fehler? In ihrem Artikel greifen Sie die Grafik ja nur mit zwei Falschbehauptungen an. @AxelBojanowski 1/🧵
Erstens, sie sei nicht in der Fachliteratur publiziert. Stimmt nicht. Sogar sehr prominent, seit vier Jahren, viel zitiert, und ich habe in der Zeit keine Kritik dazu gehört. Ein Fachjournalist sollte das nicht verpasst haben. 2/🧵
Zweitens, die Grafik zeige jährliche Daten. Stimmt nicht, es sind über 30 Jahre klimatologisch geglättete Daten. Niemand hat behauptet, es sei "bereits wärmer als während aller Jahre seit der Eiszeit". Über einzelne Jahre kann man das gar nicht sagen. 3/🧵
Read 11 tweets
7 Aug
Beim Herunterspielen der #Erderwärmung hat die "Welt" offenbar jedes Maß verloren. Sie bezichtigt in Trump-Manier das ZDF der “Desinformation“. Nur weil das ZDF es gewagt hat, eine völlig korrekte Klimadatengrafik zu zeigen. @welt 1/🧵
Die Folgerung, dass wir heute bereits den Temperaturbereich des Holozän (pink) verlassen haben, ist keine "Ente", wie Welt-Autor Axel Bojanowski behauptet, sondern das zeigte schon der Weltklimarat IPCC (Abb. 1.2 des Sonderberichts zu 1,5 Grad) von 2018. 2/🧵
Dass in einer Grafik paläoklimatische Daten zusammen mit modernen Messdaten gezeigt werden ist auch kein "Taschenspieltrick", sondern in der Fachliteratur durchaus üblich. Siehe die aktuellste Holozänanalyse aus Nature Scientific Data: nature.com/articles/s4159… 3/🧵
Read 15 tweets
15 Jul
How can you tell who is a real scientist in the public debate? Scientists do research to find out new things, and document results in peer-reviewed journals. Relevant results are cited in other research articles, and this gets documented in data bases like Web of Science. 1/🧵 Image
My example graph shows some climate scientists who are prominent in public debate, e.g. on Twitter. My point is not ranking or exact numbers, just the fact that the work of experienced climate scientists tends to have been cited thousands of times in other research articles. 2/🧵
At the bottom are two prominent characters who are not distinguished by scientific achievements. They appear in Web of Science mostly as this database covers some non-peer-reviewed articles from New Scientist, Foreign Affairs or Scientific American. realclimate.org/index.php/arch… 3/🧵
Read 6 tweets
22 Jun
Without words.
One man has words for this:
"Slow the testing down, please!"
Spoken at what may well turn out to be a super-spreader event.
Read 4 tweets

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