Britain is nearing the end of an "integrated review" of its defence (and foreign, security & aid) policy. Its contours are looking clearer: focus on a wider range of threats, including in "greyzone", and shift from "mass" to "speed & readiness". My piece:…
'Though Russia is ranked as the biggest military threat to Europe, China is looming as a problem. “China poses the greatest threat to world order,” says General Hockenhull, “seeking to impose Chinese standards and norms and using its economic power to influence and subvert.”...'
'...In place of “mass and mobilisation”, said [UK defence minister @BWallaceMP], “this future force will be about speed, readiness and resilience, operating much more in the newest domains of space, cyber and sub-sea” ...'…
"the emphasis on greyzone threats ... is fraught with risk ... @blagden_david ... points out that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is often held up as a canonical example of greyzone war, involved several armoured divisions and veiled nuclear threats"…

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More from @shashj

9 Sep
"The Indian troops, armed and present in larger numbers, used the portable public address system to warn Chinese troops that if they did not halt their advance, India would be forced to fire ... Chinese troops fired shots in the air."…
"Sources said the fact that the Indian presence was numerically stronger than China’s and that the soldiers had been instructed to follow the new rules of engagement — which is shoot if under threat — prevented a repeat of what happened in Galwan June 15."…
If both sides draw the lesson "shoot under threat" then things will get rockier (despite the chorus of voices who have been telling us since May that this is all alarmism, the situation is a storm in a teacup, etc)
Read 4 tweets
2 Sep
India-China developments 🧵
"The Chushul subsector in eastern Ladakh remained tense on Tuesday, with Chinese troops within firing range of Indian soldiers who have occupied heights along a key ridgeline"…
"Indian troops have taken dominating positions along the southern bank of Pangong and have carried out deployments in Chushul ... include heights overlooking the Spanggur gap, which is being defended by T90 tanks and positions at Rezang La and Rechin La"…
Read 17 tweets
21 Jul
ISC: "We have not been provided with any post-referendum assessment of Russian attempts at interference. This situation is in stark contrast to the US handling of allegations of Russian interference ... where an intelligence community assessment was produced within two months"
"written evidence provided to us appeared to suggest that HMG had not seen or sought evidence of successful interference in UK democratic processes or any activity that has had a material impact on an election"… "not ... sought"???
ISC: "Twenty years ago, MI5 devoted around 20% of its effort to Hostile State Activity ... by 2008/09, only 3% of effort was allocated by MI5 to all its work against Hostile State Activity. t was not until 2013/14 that effort began to increase significantly, rising to 14.5%"
Read 10 tweets
6 Jul
"With Flournoy as senior adviser, Boston Consulting Group’s defense contracts grew from $1.6 million in 2013 to $32 million in 2016. Before she joined, according to public records, BCG had not signed any contracts with the Defense Department."…
"Flournoy ... had also become CEO of the Center for a New American Security in 2014. The think tank had $48 million on hand, and defense contractors donated at least $3.8 million while she was CEO. By 2017, she was making $452,000 a year."…
'WestExec says they do not lobby. “We’ll tell you who to go talk to, but we’re not going to go in there for you, and we’re not going to facilitate the introduction,” said one staffer. One of their offerings ... is an “on-call National Security Council.”'…
Read 4 tweets
16 Jun
My piece in @TheEconomist on "the first combat fatalities on the mountainous border between India and China in 45 years, drawing to a close an era in which Asia’s two largest powers had managed their differences without bloodshed."…
"Indian military sources" to The Wire: “The area where they met is very treacherous and mountainous. In the pushing and shoving, the three seem to have slipped. We don’t know if it was deliberate or it happened during the pushing and shoving”…
"Sources said the Indian Army patrol had set out to check on positions of the Chinese troops to ensure they had retreated. The troops were attacked by a much larger group of Chinese soldiers, said the sources, who did not wish to be identified."…
Read 39 tweets
2 Jun
A fresh thread on the India-situation (Tuesday June 2nd), to avoid cluttering too many. Yesterday's thread is below.
.@horror06 in the Times of India. "The India-China standoff is likely to drag on through the summer, sources have said. As troops dig in on both sides, India expects this to last for some time"…
"At this point, the two sides are facing off at four points — three points in Galwan, one at Galwan junction or Patrol Point 14, PP 15 and Gogra PP 17. The fourth face-off point is at Pangong Tso"…
Read 19 tweets

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