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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
@shashj
Sep 15, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Britain is nearing the end of an "integrated review" of its defence (and foreign, security & aid) policy. Its contours are looking clearer: focus on a wider range of threats, including in "greyzone", and shift from "mass" to "speed & readiness". My piece:
economist.com/britain/2020/0…
'Though Russia is ranked as the biggest military threat to Europe, China is looming as a problem. “China poses the greatest threat to world order,” says General Hockenhull, “seeking to impose Chinese standards and norms and using its economic power to influence and subvert.”...'
'...In place of “mass and mobilisation”, said [UK defence minister @BWallaceMP], “this future force will be about speed, readiness and resilience, operating much more in the newest domains of space, cyber and sub-sea” ...' economist.com/britain/2020/0…
"the emphasis on greyzone threats ... is fraught with risk ... @blagden_david ... points out that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is often held up as a canonical example of greyzone war, involved several armoured divisions and veiled nuclear threats" economist.com/britain/2020/0…

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Apr 19
Well. Israel apparently took out a radar site which was part of the air defence for Natanz nuclear facility. That is one hell of a shot across the bow.
And here is proof. Pretty clever target: allows Iran to wave away the strike, while sending a clear message that nuclear sites are at credible risk in future escalation cycles. (FWIW Iran’s barrage also struck balance between calibration & signalling, though with less finesse)
Re-posting with a newer version of @CSBiggers’ analysis below.
Read 5 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Apr 3
“The strike that killed seven WCK aid workers in Gaza was a result of lack of discipline on the part of commanders on the ground, and not due to coordination problems between the army and the humanitarian organization, sources in the IDF told Haaretz.” haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
‘IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi …said that the attack was "a mistake that followed a misidentification - at night during a war in very complex conditions. It shouldn't have happened," he added’ haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
‘Israeli army sources later refuted their claims [of poor co-ordination] saying the incident has 'no connection to coordination' and was caused by the fact that 'every commander sets the rules for himself'…’ haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Mar 27
Robert Gates on visiting Russia as CIA director: "One of my most vivid memories, they have this wonderful guest house at KGB headquarters where they have their dinners...We sit down and I ate the worst piece of beef I’ve ever had in my entire life" millercenter.org/the-presidency…
"It was like the reject from an American butcher shop...it was all fatty. I mean, it was just a lousy piece of meat. I thought, if the director of the KGB can’t get a better steak than this, they’re in worse trouble than I thought." millercenter.org/the-presidency…
Gates: "in the post Cold War period...our highest priority targets were not...people we were going to meet in cocktail receptions...I wanted to radically change the nature of the DO away from its dependence on cover of embassies and into nonofficial cover" millercenter.org/the-presidency…
Read 39 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Mar 18
A good reflection on Russia’s attritional way of war and why West isn’t prepared for it. But notable that the word “nuclear” doesn’t appear at any point. How does NATO-Russia nuclear dynamic affect the likelihood & impact of war protraction & attrition? rusi.org/explore-our-re…
“In an attritional war characterised by heavy casualties, there simply isn’t time to replace lost NCOs or generate them for new units … Only time can generate leaders capable of executing NATO doctrine” rusi.org/explore-our-re…
“A key difference between the models is that NATO doctrine cannot function without high-performing NCOs. The Soviet doctrine was enhanced by experienced NCOs but did not require them” rusi.org/explore-our-re…
Read 7 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Mar 12
"The United States should adopt a 4+2 posture beginning in 2025 that consists of four U.S. BCTs—in Poland, Italy, Germany, and Romania—and two headquarters, in Germany and Poland" csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/20…
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"the conventional balance in Europe favors the United States and Europe today. This advantage includes forces currently deployed to NATO’s eastern flank, as well as forces that Russia and NATO could deploy"
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/20…
Image
"Russia faces considerable force-to-space ratio constraints in Eastern Europe today. A Russian buildup along NATO’s eastern flank...would likely lead to a rapid NATO deterrent buildup in response—& deny Russia from gaining a forceto-space ratio advantage." csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/20…
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Mar 1
Ukraine "presents the first instance in which both combatants deploy robust, if still largely primitive, reconnaissance-strike complexes (RSCs) that they innovate during wartime. This...allows observers to identify fundamental mechanics of the interaction" press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewconten…
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Not sure this is entirely correct. "These [recon-strike] complexes should also include [AI]; the fact that neither Ukraine nor Russia employs major AI indicates the degree to which their reconnaissance-strike complexes are still primitive." press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewconten…
"It must be noted that Russian forces increasingly replicate Ukrainian [UAS-ISR] practices, though on average w/out commensurate results because of poor training standards, less effective equipment and a lower-quality officer & technical specialist corps" press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewconten…
Read 10 tweets

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