An interesting essay on how US intelligence agencies judged Soviet intentions and capabilities & how that changed over time. "...probably incorrectly believing there was also a Soviet proclivity to prepare to launch a war if conditions seemed propitious" cia.gov/resources/csi/… "...considerable [Soviet] exaggerations of Western bellicosity and capabilities, including planning for initiation of war. Soviet intel estimates, like those of the United States and NATO, were always predicated on initiation of war by the other side" cia.gov/resources/csi/…

I've been reviewing many of the past year's US & European military & intelligence assessments of how long it would take Russia to rebuild its military capability and the timeline on which any threat to NATO could unfold. A brief thread below which summarises these assessments.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1907348916959326296

Norway intel service: "At the earliest, Moscow may be able to fully realise these plans [for military expansion e.g. Karelia] five to ten years after the war in Ukraine is over." In some areas Russia has "next to no reserves" for the next two years. etterretningstjenesten.no/publikasjoner/…

I wrote a piece on China’s evolution into a bigger, more sophisticated and more threatening cyber power over the past decade, and particularly in the last few years. I also look at the pivotal role played by China’s private sector ecosystem in that shift. economist.com/china/2025/03/… A few sources. Ciaran Martin’s very good survey from a few days ago gazumped mine. rusi.org/explore-our-re…

Absolutely incredible. The Trump admin accidentally adds the editor of the Atlantic to a Signal group. Then Pete Hegseth sends him details of the US strikes on Yemen hours ahead of time incl. "precise information about weapons packages, targets & timing" theatlantic.com/politics/archi… Walz: "it will have to be the United States that reopens these shipping lanes [Red Sea]. Per the president’s request we are working with DOD and State to determine how to compile the cost associated and levy them on the Europeans" theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

Witkoff on UK troop proposals. “it’s a combination of a posture and a pose and…simplistic. I think there’s this … sort of notion of we’ve all got to be like Winston Churchill, the Russians are gonna march across Europe. I think that’s preposterous” singjupost.com/transcript-of-… Witkoff transcript is just eye popping: “Why would they want to absorb Ukraine? For what purpose, exactly? They don’t need to absorb Ukraine. That would be like occupying Gaza…They want stability there… But the Russians also have what they want” singjupost.com/transcript-of-…

America’s main negotiator with Russia appears to be completely captured by Russian propaganda. Witkoff: “there have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule.” pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/… The Russians must be dumbstruck they their opponents have managed to find perhaps the most gullible man on the planet. Putin “told me a story, Tucker, about how when the president was shot, he went to his local church and met with his priest and prayed.” pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/…

“The multinational task force envisioned does not need to be everywhere in Ukraine. It needs to have a presence on three directions, and with sufficient mobility to redeploy as necessary along the front.” But is UK/Fr intention really a force that wd deploy to front in a crisis?

https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1896548043132199246

Kofman/Watling: “the initial force deployed could be as few as three combat brigades, … force may need to grow over time as Russia reconstitutes. This would amount to perhaps 15,000 to 20,000 personnel in country, with another 30,000 to 40,000 required for sustained rotation”

🧵 This UN resolution vote on Ukraine is worth paying attention to. A brief thread on the Trump administration's bullying under way in the background.
reuters.com/world/europe/u… Every year the US has backed a UN General Assembly vote noting the principles of the UN Charter & Russia's violation of those in Ukraine. Now the US is threatening to vote against that & is pushing a new resolution in the Security Council.

‘The IDF requires an officer to sign off on any recommendations from its “big data processing" systems, according to an intelligence official … The Gospel and other AI tools do not make decisions autonomously, the person added.’ washingtonpost.com/technology/202… “Another machine learning tool, called Lavender, uses a percentage score to predict how likely a Palestinian is to be a member of a militant group, allowing the IDF to quickly generate a large volume of potential human targets”
washingtonpost.com/technology/202…

The Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power is out. It has a number of interesting things in it. media.defense.gov/2024/Dec/18/20… It deals extensively with the corruption purges in the Chinese armed forces—at least 15 high ranking officers or industry execs removed July-Dec 2023—concluding that this "may have disrupted its [PLA] progress toward stated 2027 modernization goals" media.defense.gov/2024/Dec/18/20…

Senior US admin official says Assad wouldn't have been toppled absent US support for Ukr & Israel. No "serious" outreach from Assad to USG. US urged Iraq to "stay out of it". And: "future here will be written by Syrians. We are not coming up with a blueprint from Washington" Asked if USG is in contact with HTS, the US official says: " it's safe to say there's contact with with all Syrian groups". Says HTS is a "broad kaleidoscope" and US has to be "smart" in dealing with it, "mindful and pragmatic about about the realities on the ground."

Punchy intro to CDS Xmas lecture at RUSI from @MTSavill: “last month's announcement of cuts… is emblematic of a dept. that is struggling to reconcile people and money with existing commitments at a very time when the threats that we face are growing in scale and complexity” Radakin warns North Korean deployments could become a larger flow: “This year's most extraordinary moment was the deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers on the border of Ukraine and the possibility of tens of of thousands more to follow” as part of DPRK-Russia pact

Reading the just released “War and Peace” by General Sir Richard Barrons, who is currently co-writing the UK’s strategic defence review. Barrons on serving in Bosnia. “The experience of working in a broken, rundown, deeply factionalised and occasionally bizarre environment was pretty faithfully replicated by my stints in the Ministry of Defence in London”

An instructive podcast, published six days ago, with Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for the secretary of defence position. A few takeaways:
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/143… Hegseth: "I would probably talk a lot about the military industrial complex... the companies that influence the way we procure weapons and way we fight. Well, there's the veterans industrial complex too...allow the private market to provide for vets ... the VA hates that."

“JPMorgan Chase, a bank, has estimated that a tariff hike half the size of the one Mr Trump is advocating would knock a third to half a percentage point off gdp growth in its first year and increase inflation by 1.5-2 percentage points.” economist.com/briefing/2024/… “Mass deportations of the magnitude that Mr Trump has proposed are also unlikely to happen. The federal government simply would not have the capacity to hunt down and deport millions of people unless Mr Trump were to enlist the armed forces or deputise…law enforcement”

This is a very good discussion with @liscovich, providing a clear picture of what the drone war in Ukraine currently looks like (rather than how it looked a year ago). A few points that stood out to me:

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1848694786141655158

1. We're on to the third generation of First Person View (FPV) drones. "The overall trend has been toward using larger [air]frames that can carry more payload [with] frequency shifting." Bigger antennae—30W v 2W—to strengthen signal and counter impact of Russian jamming.

Big statement by Canadian police. “An extraordinary situation is compelling us to speak about what we have discovered in our multiple ongoing investigations into the involvement of agents of the Government of India in serious criminal activity in Canada” rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/news/2024/r… “there has been well over a dozen credible and imminent threats to life which have led to the conduct of Duty to Warn by law enforcement with members of the South Asian community, and specifically members of the pro-Khalistan movement” rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/news/2024/r…

"despite these achievements, Ukraine’s troops and their commanders are growing concerned over manpower problems, particularly the quality of new recruits and the speed at which they are injured or killed in combat." "ft.com/content/b93961… Grim & will have a knock-on effect on mobilisation and will to fight. "The [Ukrainian] commanders estimated that 50 to 70 per cent of new infantry troops were killed or wounded within days of starting their first rotation." ft.com/content/b93961…

Listening to Richard Moore & Bill Burns at Kenwood House.

https://twitter.com/chiefmi6/status/1832371619345334681

Burns: “we have no better foreign partner in the world than SIS”

I wrote this week on the latest skirmishing in the crypto wars. End-to-end encryption has conquered the world. Governments continue to push back in defence of lawful intercept. But the debate around technical solutions has changed little in years.
economist.com/international/… A few sources for this piece. In 2018 & 2021 a pair of GCHQ officials proposed various solutions for reconciling gov't interception with end-to-end encryption. The first piece proposed that govts could be added secretly to particular communications:
lawfaremedia.org/article/princi…

A CNAS tabletop exercise. "This study finds that a hypothetical, protracted U.S.-PRC conflict creates conditions under which nonstrategic nuclear weapons use is both appealing to the PRC and difficult to manage for the United States" cnas.org/publications/r… "once nuclear escalation in the Indo-Pacific occurs, reciprocal tactical nuclear exchanges may continue, but not necessarily lead to general nuclear war." cnas.org/publications/r…