What Fauci wrote in Feb (before making COVID political):
1. COVID is related to SARS (2002 & 2012)
1a. SARS has CFR 9-10%
1b. COVID has CFR 1.4-2%
2. COVID "case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia" (not just +PCR test) (1/4)
nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…
3. Higher "mortality among the elderly and among those with coexisting conditions"
4. "No cases in children younger than 15"
5. "Children less likely to become infected... or symptoms were so mild that their infection escaped detection" (2/4)
nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…
6. "Asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as higher as the number of reported cases"
7. "Overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza" (3/4)
nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…
8. "Community spread... could require a shift from containment to mitigation strategies... such strategies could include isolating ill persons" (nothing about lockdown, isolating everyone, or wearing masks) (4/4)
nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…

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More from @LenCabrera

9 Sep
Why did the CDC change guidance on who to test? Read the Cohen-Kessel paper on false positive rate (FPR). They reviewed real-world data on RT-PCR tests for RNA viruses since 2004 & estimated 2.3% FPR. (1/6)

bioinvasions.org/wp-content/upl…
That means the specificity is 97.7%, not the fanciful 100% reported by labs (Table S1). Using 99% sensitivity & 97.7% specificity, then using the daily %+ tests to estimate the COVID-19 prevalence of the test population, it's possible to estimate... (2/6)
the number of + tests that were returned for uninfected people (i.e., false positives). Since 2/29, the US has 6.1M +tests, but 1.7M (28%) are likely false+. Also 45K of 77M (0.059%) false- tests (- test returned for infected people). (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
19 Aug
As @SteveDeaceShow says, "Assume you're being lied to." Here's a summary of Florida District 8 medical examiner reports on COVID-19 deaths from @AlachuaCounty: 39 reports, all but 5 list COVID-19 pneumonia or infection as primary cause of death, but... (1/8)
80% (31 of 39) have 4 or more co-morbidities; only 2 list <3 (81 & 82 y/o with dementia); most common: hypertension (31), heart/circulatory disease (30), diabetes (24), kidney disease (15); 17 in long term care facilities; median age was 78; 90% (35 of 39) were 65 or older (2/8)
Discontinuity between state data systems; @HealthyFla case line data (8/18) has 29 C19 deaths in @AlachuaCounty (59 in all of ME District 8); From 39 ME reports 12 can't be matched to case line data; specific examples of "COVID" deaths follow... (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
13 Aug
Wear a mask because
(1) COVID erased years of science & replaced it with "SCIENCE!" (insert @SteveDeaceShow voice)
(2) It shows you care & is cheaper than sending a card to everyone
(3) It's easier to comply with tyrannical government than to fight for liberty
(1/13)
1975: "The wearing of a surgical face mask had no effect upon the overall operating room environmental contamination" (2/13)
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1157412/
1981: "No masks were worn in one operating theatre for
6 months. There was no increase in the incidence of wound infection." (3/13)
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 13 tweets

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