Here’s a prediction. Saudi Arabia will sign a peace treaty with Israel in the next 24 months, but unlike today’s agreements, it will have to be preceded by ending the state of war between KSA and Israel. Major factors: US elections and Iran front.
Saudi Arabia, having been created prior to Israel, declared war against Israel in 1948. That was never ended and Saudi remains one of 7 nations Israel is enemies with, as per Israeli law. A technicality but it needs to be dealt with
Israel can unilaterally remove Saudi from the Israeli list of enemy states, which can be seen as a first step taken by Israel, or it can be a mutual signing of recognition (like Jordan and Egypt). It’s very different from UAE and Bahrain
KSA / Israel relations have nothing to do with “who we are” but rather legal technicalities that are quite complicated.
If I’m not mistaken, charges against Israeli fugitive Azmi Bishara who fled to Qatar after accusations in Israel that he dealt with Hizbollah including his trip to Syria, which was & still is as per Israeli law, an enemy state. So ball really in Israel’s court - at least legally
Politically, those legalities will be solvable in a few hours, but they can be both a hindrance or a sign of good will. I’m not sure whether Knesset needs to vote on removing Saudi from list of enemy states? That’s Israeli law
If I’m also not mistaken, there was a Saudi consulate in East Jerusalem in 1967 (which was then part of Jordan) but is now part of Israel’s “enemy properties”...no doubt, a lot of private Saudi properties inside Israel proper and areas occupied by Israel in 1967.
In other words, a Saudi Israeli peace treaty is a complicated one that is not as complicated as Jordan’s (but exactly same issues), but not as straight forward as UAE.
Kuwait is an interesting one in that it became independent in 1964, so not enemy of Israel but before 1967. Many Kuwaitis had properties in East Jerusalem and sent their kids to boarding school there, mainly St George’s which my family is closely connected to.
St George’s is the Anglican school in Jerusalem, in Arabic referred to as the “Bishop’s school”, as in the Anglican Archbishop of the Middle East etc. My father, uncles and later I briefly attended it.
My father recalls how pre 1948, they would sing the National Anthem (UK’s God Save the King then), in Arabic using totally different words (homeland instead of “King”). محبة الاوطان
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Most interesting points about Hamas ceasefire response:
1. Reconstruction of Gaza in 3 years; 2. Includes return to Al Aqsa pre 2002 status quo 3. Guaranteed by US, Russia, Turkey, Egypt & Qatar
It’s not only about Gaza…they’re clearly either totally delusional or speaking from a position of strength
Hamas is already negotiating on a Palestinian Israeli deal that goes beyond the current Gaza war. The PA is totally sidelined…this in itself was an aim for Hamas and they have already successfully achieved it
It was clear from 7 Oct that Hamas did not launch its horrible attacks to negotiate about ending this war. It’s about putting Hamas in the primary negotiating position on behalf of the Palestinians, and so far, they have succeeded.
Extraordinary President Sisi live on TV effectively lecturing Blinken. Addressed him as “Jewish citizen…” said he grew up in a Cairo neighbourhood with Jewish neighbours who were never attacked in Egypt or Arab world like what happened in Europe…
This is the video. Approx min 6. Also worth noting that President Sisi condemned the Hamas terrorist attacks (also in video)
For the record, I’m not an expert on Jews or antisemitism in Egypt. There is no doubt that Jews were discriminated against across Arab world but nowhere like in Europe. Important now to continue rebuilding bridges and fight antisemitism in Muslim communities.
I was asked about whether the Jordanian Royal wedding had any political significance esp in relation to Jerusalem (Jordanian future king to a Saudi national with a Palestinian grandmother). The simple answer is yes and no, which is why it has and hasn’t political significance.
This is not the first wedding between a Jordanian royal and a Saudi national but the first since the Awadallah incident. It certainly kills off any such alleged (and totally unfounded conspiracy theories) but it is not a marriage of dynasties.
Even marriages of dynasties in the Middle East have not necessarily ended harmoniously, but they never led to wars. There was never a prospect of a Hashemite Saudi conflict anyway, only idiots who believe in conspiracies thought that. But this Royal wedding is a good sign… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Ad from Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines advertising 3 daily flights from Beirut to Jerusalem. Pre 66, Jerusalem Qalandya/Atarot was only international airport in Jordan until Jordan decided to build a new airport south of Amman (QAIA opened in 83). Most international flights from… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Post 67 war, Jerusalem airport was no longer accepted as an international airport by international community and foreign airlines stopped using it. It was used till late 80s as domestic Israeli airport. Now it’s just a disused runway and checkpoint between Jerusalem and Ramallah.
My father (who flew on military planes to Britain in the 50s) flew for the first time on a civilian plane on a Pan Am flight from Beirut, with a connection originating at Jerusalem airport…incredible to see how this horrible checkpoint now was origin of international flights… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Qatar had an amazing opportunity to modernise btw getting awarded the World Cup in 2010 & now. It could have made itself the Switzerland of the East. Sadly,it chose not to. It employed criminals, extremists & spies only interested in £$€ rather than in Qatar’s future. #Qatar2022
What a waste of $200 billion. For a country of Qatar’s size, that like the Qatari govt giving each Qatari family US$4 million. Instead, it wasted its national resources on the most corrupt World Cup in history, trashing its own and FIFA’s reputation in the process #Qatar2022
We are talking of extreme corruption, never seen on this level anywhere. Plundering the national wealth of Qatar and in the process killing thousands of innocent workers, funding Hamas and Alqaeda and industrial scale human rights abuses, all enabled by FIFA. #Qatar2022