1) Trump sometimes touts the possibility of Pelosi becoming President if there is election chaos this fall. It's a remote, remote possibility. But not out of the question. Regardless, it wouldn't happen right away.
2) States have a statutory December 14 deadline to decide which electors to send to Washington. But what happens if a state .is still counting? In 1960 Hawaii sent in two electoral slates signed by the governor. One for Kennedy and one for Nixon.
3) It's up to Congress to settle these disputes in a Joint Session of Congress in early January. But first, keeping with the Pelosi theme, several things have to happen.
4) Pelosi must win re-election to her seat in San Francisco. The Democrats must hold control of the House. And then, in January, the House would have to re-elect Pelosi has Speaker. It's doubtful that any of those scenarios wouldn't come to pass
5) So in January, the House/Senate meet in a Jt Session of Congress to certify the electoral slates from each state. The magic number is 270 to win the presidency. Congress is the ultimate arbiter of the electoral college.
6) But if Congress can't establish which candidate got 270, electoral votes, the 12th Amdt to the Constitution dictates the House elects the President in what is called a "contingent election."
7) The House has elected 2 Presidents via a contingent election Thomas Jefferson in 1801 and John Quincy Adams. in 1825. Each state votes by delegation. One vote per state. In other words, California. with 53 House seats..is equal to South Dakota with 1 seat.
8) Even though Dems have a majority in the House, GOPers currently hold a slight edge in control of state delegations: 26 GOP. 22 Dem. 2 are essentially tied. Control of state delegations could change based on a few key Hse races this fall.
9) In short, if the GOP voted as a bloc controlling more state delegations right now, it's likely Hse could re-elect Trump in a contingent election.
10) But, the contingent election of 1801 in the Hse, which elected Jefferson as President took 6 days & 36 ballots. What happens if the House has not elected a president by noon on Jan 20, the Constitutionally mandated time for a presidency to begin?
11) At that point, there is no President and no Vice President. The terms of Trump & Pence expired. But, there is a Speaker of the Hse. The Presidential Succession Act would kick in. The Speaker would be next in line to the presidency
12) The Speaker becomes "Acting President" and serves until a president is chosen, either via the electoral college or a contingent election in the House. The Speaker must resign their seat in Congress and the Speakership
13) These scenarios are remote. But the question is whether the public would support any of these scenarios if there is election chaos this fall which drifts into January?

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More from @ChadPergram

21 Sep
A) As we always say, it’s always about the math on Capitol Hill.
B) Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Cory Gardner (R-CO) today signaled they believe the Senate should forge ahead and fill the Supreme Court vacancy this fall.
C) Gardner’s statement was silent on specific timing. Just saying that he would “vote to confirm” if/when President Trump puts forth a qualified nominee.

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) said she would “evaluate” the nominee, but did not go as far as Gardner.
Read 10 tweets
21 Sep
A) Grassley: Over the years, and as recently as July, I’ve consistently said that taking up and evaluating a nominee in 2020 would be a decision for the current chairman of the Judiciary Committee and the Senate Majority Leader.
B) Grassley: Both have confirmed their intentions to move forward, so that’s what will happen. Once the hearings are underway, it’s my responsibility to evaluate the nominee on the merits, just as I always have.
C) Grassley: The Constitution gives the Senate that authority, and the American people’s voices in the most recent election couldn’t be clearer.
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
1) The general read on CapHill is that Trump will announce his SCOTUS pick on Saturday. There is concern about alienating Jewish voters. Thus, the family of the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would sit Shiva (the seven day mourning period) through this coming Friday evening.
2) Nothing is etched in stone, but it’s possible the Senate Judiciary Committee could try to conduct a confirmation hearing either the week of Oct 4 or Oct 11. The nomination would not hit the floor for debate and a final vote until either the week of Oct 18 or Oct 25
3) The House Rules Committee today is prepping an interim spending bill which runs through December 11. The government is only funded through September 30. The House plans to consider the bill this week.
Read 8 tweets
21 Sep
1) Manchin: For the sake of the integrity of our courts and legal system, I do not believe the U.S. Senate should vote on a U.S. Supreme Court nominee before the November 3rd election.
2) Manchin: For Mitch McConnell and my Republican colleagues to rush through this process after refusing to even meet with Judge Merrick Garland in 2016 is hypocrisy in its highest form.
3) Manchin: Pursuing an overtly partisan approach to confirming a Supreme Court Justice will only deepen the political tribalism we are witnessing across this country.
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep
1) There is a supposition, suggesting that the House of Representatives could try to impeach President Trump again or impeach Attorney General Bill Barr to inhibit the Senate from moving expeditiously to confirm a Supreme Court Justice.
2) It’s hard to see how any such scenario could impede the Senate. 

Let’s hypothetically that the House does impeach the President or Barr and appoints House managers to handle a Senate impeachment trial.
3) Senate Impeachment Rule I requires the Senate to approve a resolution to receive and exhibit the articles of impeachment. Impeachment Rule II establishes the formal beginning to the trial.
Read 7 tweets
20 Sep
1) The confirmation of the next Supreme Court justice will hinge on two things: timing and math.

How fast can President Trump settle on a nominee? How fast can the administration vet that individual?
2) How fast can the Senate consider the nominee and provide Constitutionally-mandated “advice and consent?” Finally, would a nominee have enough votes?

For starters, everything is on the cusp – ranging from the timing of a confirmation hearing to the roll call vote itself.
3) It is extraordinary to have a Supreme Court vacancy this close to an election. And, past is prologue. Supreme Court nomination battles are always intense. But the melee over the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh exacerbated an already malignant situation.
Read 30 tweets

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