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Chad Pergram Profile picture
@ChadPergram
Sep 15, 2020 • 13 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
1) Trump sometimes touts the possibility of Pelosi becoming President if there is election chaos this fall. It's a remote, remote possibility. But not out of the question. Regardless, it wouldn't happen right away.
2) States have a statutory December 14 deadline to decide which electors to send to Washington. But what happens if a state .is still counting? In 1960 Hawaii sent in two electoral slates signed by the governor. One for Kennedy and one for Nixon.
3) It's up to Congress to settle these disputes in a Joint Session of Congress in early January. But first, keeping with the Pelosi theme, several things have to happen.
4) Pelosi must win re-election to her seat in San Francisco. The Democrats must hold control of the House. And then, in January, the House would have to re-elect Pelosi has Speaker. It's doubtful that any of those scenarios wouldn't come to pass
5) So in January, the House/Senate meet in a Jt Session of Congress to certify the electoral slates from each state. The magic number is 270 to win the presidency. Congress is the ultimate arbiter of the electoral college.
6) But if Congress can't establish which candidate got 270, electoral votes, the 12th Amdt to the Constitution dictates the House elects the President in what is called a "contingent election."
7) The House has elected 2 Presidents via a contingent election Thomas Jefferson in 1801 and John Quincy Adams. in 1825. Each state votes by delegation. One vote per state. In other words, California. with 53 House seats..is equal to South Dakota with 1 seat.
8) Even though Dems have a majority in the House, GOPers currently hold a slight edge in control of state delegations: 26 GOP. 22 Dem. 2 are essentially tied. Control of state delegations could change based on a few key Hse races this fall.
9) In short, if the GOP voted as a bloc controlling more state delegations right now, it's likely Hse could re-elect Trump in a contingent election.
10) But, the contingent election of 1801 in the Hse, which elected Jefferson as President took 6 days & 36 ballots. What happens if the House has not elected a president by noon on Jan 20, the Constitutionally mandated time for a presidency to begin?
11) At that point, there is no President and no Vice President. The terms of Trump & Pence expired. But, there is a Speaker of the Hse. The Presidential Succession Act would kick in. The Speaker would be next in line to the presidency
12) The Speaker becomes "Acting President" and serves until a president is chosen, either via the electoral college or a contingent election in the House. The Speaker must resign their seat in Congress and the Speakership
13) These scenarios are remote. But the question is whether the public would support any of these scenarios if there is election chaos this fall which drifts into January?

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More from @ChadPergram

Chad Pergram Profile picture
Apr 30
1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To How Democrats Support for Johnson Could Backfire On the Speaker

An astonishing email just hit inboxes around Capitol Hill from the House Democratic leadership team of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA):

“We will vote to table Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Motion to Vacate the Chair. If she invokes the motion, it will not succeed.”
2) So you have DEMOCRATIC leaders telling their rank-and-file members they support short-circuiting an effort to unseat House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

Here’s why this is a big deal:

It was thought that House Democrats would protect Johnson in some form if Greene were to trigger her resolution. That hasn’t happened yet. But it was believed that a small number of Democrats might vote to table or kill Greene’s motion, thus protecting him. Or, Democrats might just “take a walk” during that vote, diluting the voting pool in the House. That would protect Johnson by having fewer Democrats vote. Thus, Democrats could inoculate Johnson – without ever taking a vote.
3) But it is a MAJOR DEAL when the entire Democratic leadership team and rank-and-file Democrats say they would vote to protect Johnson.

Great for Johnson, right?

Maybe immediately. But there is a BIG downside here.

Such a maneuver could embolden the smaller coterie of Republicans who want to oust Johnson. And even some rank-and-file Republicans could see that Johnson is only in the job because of the Democrats. Thus Johnson is a “Democratic” Speaker. Especially since he largely did the Democrats’ bidding passing the Ukraine aid bill a few weeks ago, avoided multiple government shutdowns and passed nearly every major bill in recent months with lots of Democratic support – often with more Democratic votes than from Republicans.

This might not undercut Johnson now. But it could give those who might want his job – potentially House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) – an opportunity to use Democratic support as a wedge and perhaps challenge Johnson for Speaker next year or a leadership post in the new Congress if Republicans lose the majority.
Read 5 tweets
Chad Pergram Profile picture
Mar 25
1) User's Manual to how control of the House could flip to the Democrats before the election.

Control of the House has never changed in the middle of a Congress. But if it’s going to happen, the 118th Congress is as ripe for that possibility.
2) House Republicans face chaos in their conference. Members who planned to retire next January are now ditching Capitol Hill early. The House is an acrimonious place with yet another move afoot to dethrone the Speaker.
3) Fox is told that other Republicans are angling to get out as soon as they can. A big payday in the private sector could lure some members to cash in their voting card early.

First, let’s talk about the length of a given “Congress.”
Read 25 tweets
Chad Pergram Profile picture
Mar 22
A) From colleague Kelly Phares. There is sparring between Cotton and Tester about who is holding up an agreement to vote on the minibus spending bill.
B) Off the Senate floor, the two men came face to face while speaking to separate groups of reporters. Sen Cotton yelled at Tester over all the reporters: "Why don't you ask Senator Tester why we aren't voting?"

Sen Tester yelled back: "You can ask me anything you want!"
C) Tester then spoke to reporters: "Did Cotton say that they're holding amendments because of Jon Tester? Because if he did, he might be full of something that comes off the back of a cow"
Read 4 tweets
Chad Pergram Profile picture
Mar 22
1) There is no agreement between senators on a voting on a host of amendments related to border, migration and the Laken Riley Act. The mood in the Senate has grown increasingly dark over the past two hours and time slipping off the clock.
2) Even if the sides were to get a deal now, it would be hard to finish up before the 11:59:59 pm et deadline to align with the House.
3) “I thought we’d have it by now,” said Sen. John Hoeven (R-ND), looking at his watch, noting that deals like this usually come together around the 7 pm et hour.

When asked what the Republicans were offering, Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT) replied “nothing good.”
Read 8 tweets
Chad Pergram Profile picture
Mar 20
1) Fox has learned that the Attorney General for the District of Columbia has dropped charges against Steve Nikoui for disrupting Congress during the President’s State of the Union speech earlier this month.
2) Nikoui is the father of Kareem Nikoui who was killed during the Biden Administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Fox learned of the decision this evening. The decision to drop the charges was confirmed by the Speaker’s Office.
3) Fox was told the DC AG’s office decided not to prosecute in this case just as they have in the cases of protesters in the past.

Steve Nikoui was a guest of Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL) for the speech and interrupted the President, shouting “Abbey Gate!”
Read 6 tweets
Chad Pergram Profile picture
Mar 12
1) House GOP and could mean the House is down to a one-seat majority soon, not long after Buck resignation

It is ALWAYS about the math.

That is augmented by the resignation of Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) next week.
2) Buck tells me he will remain a member until the end of the day on March 22.

That is also the deadline for the next batch of spending bills to avoid a shutdown.

Also, the GOP majority could even shrivel more before it gets better.
3) The next special election is for the seat occupied by former Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) on April 30. If that seat stays in Democratic hands, the new breakdown is 432 members with 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats.
Read 4 tweets

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