There is a certain type of Christian leader who recognizes that Western civilization and American culture have produced a government and society particularly conducive to human flourishing, yet out of guilt for the past failures of this culture ...
(including failures of the white American church), he wants to see this culture taken down a notch. He wraps his appeals in the language of humility, but is actually seeking to abdicate the responsibility of cultural and political influence. ...
He wishes this knowing full well that any successor regime would likely be worse—not only for us but for the very groups he's claiming we must make amends to—because such a successor would abandon much of what has made our government and society so appealing. ...
But out of guilt (and failure to appreciate grace), he lacks the will to defend our culture and its virtues—which have provided such blessings to those born here and to generations of immigrants—and would instead surrender this great treasure with which we've been entrusted. ...
He wants to atone for the sins of our ancestors and the imperfections of our present regime by handing our cultural and political inheritance to those he recognizes would destroy it, rather than stewarding this responsibility and working to glorify God by expanding its blessings.
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1/ The extractive industries are critical to reinvigorating our industrial base.
Two key drivers of improvement in these sectors: innovative tools and effective use of data.
New Founding has made a big bet to help realize this—highlighted by a $100M mining case study. 🧵
2/ Today the US is the leading producer of oil & gas. But for critical minerals, the US is dependent on other countries that oppose our interests.
China produces 6x more rare earths than the US, 2x more gold, 1.5x more copper, 6x more iron ore.
3/ In March, the White House issued an executive order “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production” to streamline the permitting process and open up federal land for mining.
1/ I started my career with a bet on distressed multifamily in Florida and Texas based on a Sunbelt macro thesis. We acquired 7,000 apartments within 4 years, and returned >$200mm in profits to investors.
At New Founding, we have a new rural & small town thesis. 🧵
2/ In 2011, I moved to Florida with an HLS classmate and his brother to launch Avesta (now InvestRes) to buy distressed apartment buildings.
Though general market sentiment was poor—with fears of a double dip recession—and vacancy high, we saw an exceptional buying opportunity.
3/ We bought distressed multifamily properties at <25% of replacement cost, believing durable migration to Sunbelt states was certain to reduce vacancy and drive a convergence toward replacement cost.
Now ironically, this is the sort of system the OP, who is a self-declared socialist, wants over every aspect of society.
This sort of arbitrary bureaucratic government has been the nature of socialist regimes everywhere.
In the digital age, I expect we see this sort of algorithmic bureaucratic government eclipse every other model anywhere a centralized platform exists—or at least any platform lacking a strong executive willing to firmly resist regime pressure.
Possible consequence of these New York Trump lawsuits:
NY has long been a trusted hub for commercial law, with its laws and courts often chosen by contracting parties around the world.
Very public cases like this cast doubt on the integrity of those courts, and may lead parties to seek a more trustworthy legal forum.
This in turn could help undermine New York’s status as a global financial hub.
This Trump case is just one example of the themes of my annual letter.
It shows how political conflict could contribute to the collapse of institutional trust—with knock-on effects that undermine the globalized system and resonate around the world.
My 2023 investor letter—outlining macro themes that define our strategy at @NewFounding:
As we enter 2024, I see three interrelated themes that explain contemporary societal fear, malaise, and conflict, and that frame the opportunity for a true positive alternative vision.
Each of these themes touches a key contemporary problem, and each reflects a pervasive underlying ideology. Together, they contribute to a broader breakdown in societal trust and order. Likewise, I see three corresponding solutions that must define a positive future. Many people emphasize one or two of these problems and/or solutions. I believe all three problems are deeply linked, and that successful responses will often include solutions to all three.
Global disruption:
Driven by an ideology of globalism, leaders in all segments of society have pursued connection with and dependence on distant counterparties. The decades surrounding the collapse of the Soviet Union saw an unprecedented growth of global trade and information flow and political openness. But as competition with China escalates, wars emerge in Europe and the Near East, and militias threaten trade routes with weapons that impose asymmetric costs, there is a rising awareness of the risks of such a system—fragility inherent in any sort of external or distant dependency. Moreover, the system of globalism creates a tragedy of the commons; tighter aligned groups, who are less focused on universal ideals, often politically outmaneuver those who are committed to the universalism necessary to sustain a global market.
The solution is household, community, regional, and national self-determination—a fractal approach that recognizes outside connections will remain, but systematically favors local (whether local to a geography or aligned community) interactions when feasible. Successful startups will facilitate such interactions, leveraging existing local networks or enabling new connections, rather than defaulting to the distant and anonymous.
Bureaucratic stagnation:
Managerialism—the push to professionalize / rationalize / commoditize every process and organization—has redefined the structure of our society over the past century. This process enables scale, a direct complement to globalization. But it also comes at a cost: bureaucratic impediments to decision-making, accountability, and innovation; rationalized processes that feel cold and sterile; commoditization that forces conformity and destroys variety. And it has led to widespread bloat, with outsized growth of administrative jobs in domains from finance to education, and departments like HR in every sector.
he solution is multifaceted—a combination of new frontiers and organizational models more dependent on ownership and skin in the game instead of bureaucratic checks, enabling an elevation of the human spirit even in a complex world. Startups inherently tend in this direction, and startups whose products empower decision-makers in complex environments (in contrast, for example, to those that abrogate human decision-making through hard-coded processes) will see particular appeal. AI will offer particular contrasts between tools that automate oversight mechanisms to allow the expansion of bureaucratic governance, and those that automate creative functions to give leverage to individuals.
Cultural and political alienation:
Cultural conflicts have encompassed every institution and area of American life in the past decade. Practices and traditions that were widely accepted have been attacked and deconstructed by ideological narratives—such as DEI and CRT—grounded in radical liberation and egalitarianism. While many see these as irrelevant "politics" that are bolted on to otherwise-neutral businesses, they in fact complement globalism and managerialism (one reason why any solution simply branding itself as “anti-woke” will struggle to meaningfully differentiate itself). They help strip people of familial and cultural attachments to make them more predictable/malleable participants in global bureaucracies, and offer a comfortable moral framework to people in such careers. While this has driven widespread corporate embrace of these ideologies, it has alienated millions of Americans.
The solution is a renewed embrace of the American tradition and Christian ideals. This means a recognition that these are good things, worthy of protection and celebration, and for many businesses and institutions, it means a proactive focus on marketing to and serving individuals and communities who still embrace these values—both because of the short-term opportunity to pick up customers alienated by competitors, and because truly serving these people will mean focusing on real problems and valuable, durable solutions.
New Founding's vision:
Americans are hungry for a positive vision they can rally around. Many in both politics and venture recognize key problems described above and promote solutions targeted at them. But too often, they approach these in isolation or focus on surface-level phenomena rather than the root issue—leaving doubt as to the viability or sufficiency of proposed solutions.
At New Founding, we see deep relationships among these problems, and believe that solutions that likewise touch multiple themes can be poised for successes that more isolated responses struggle to achieve. For example, a startup that not only markets to alienated conservative customers, but designs its product to be more empowering than bureaucratic alternatives, may parlay success with politically motivated early adopters into broader appeal across its sector. Likewise, the best response to an unreliable dependency on a global tech giant may not be an individualistic, trust-minimized technology (these often struggle to offer a competitive user experience), but rather an approach that builds on the deep trust that still exists in many aligned communities such as churches—creating a solution that is not just a necessary compromise given declining institutional trust, but a higher-trust and more personal alternative. In a world where the risks of scale and distance grow, impersonal bureaucracies stagnate, and culture battles rage, the greatest store of value will be high-trust communities.
We believe new ventures that address the core problems described above will benefit from growing macro tailwinds, and have not just niche appeal, but the potential to transform their sectors. Moreover, as disillusionment with current institutions grows, those who offer real solutions to our underlying problems will tap a hunger that crosses domains from politics to business, and inspire people with the opportunity to build a positive vision for America’s future.
Our ventures:
We are pursuing this vision through several efforts: our venture fund, a new real estate-focused unit, and a new venture we are developing in-house.
More details on these below.
First, through the New Founding Venture Fund, we made two early-stage investments: