Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Nate Fischer Profile picture
Nate Fischer
@NateAFischer
Founder and investor. CEO @NewFounding: a venture firm focused on disruptive macro dynamics
6 subscribers
May 22 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
1/ The extractive industries are critical to reinvigorating our industrial base.

Two key drivers of improvement in these sectors: innovative tools and effective use of data.

New Founding has made a big bet to help realize this—highlighted by a $100M mining case study. 🧵 Image 2/ Today the US is the leading producer of oil & gas. But for critical minerals, the US is dependent on other countries that oppose our interests.

China produces 6x more rare earths than the US, 2x more gold, 1.5x more copper, 6x more iron ore.
Apr 15 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
1/ I started my career with a bet on distressed multifamily in Florida and Texas based on a Sunbelt macro thesis. We acquired 7,000 apartments within 4 years, and returned >$200mm in profits to investors.

At New Founding, we have a new rural & small town thesis. 🧵 2/ In 2011, I moved to Florida with an HLS classmate and his brother to launch Avesta (now InvestRes) to buy distressed apartment buildings.

Though general market sentiment was poor—with fears of a double dip recession—and vacancy high, we saw an exceptional buying opportunity.
Jan 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Meritocracy is not a conservative idea.

It has always been a technocratic ideal.

While aptitude and qualification are important considerations, we need not be ruled by them. 🧵 Image A clear example:

Say you fully own a company.

You have a job opening that offers both responsibility and upward mobility.

Your son is qualified, but an outside candidate has a far stronger resume.

You have no obligation to choose the outside candidate over your son.
Oct 9, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Thread on life under an arbitrary administrative tyranny.

Closed digital platforms can ban you for any reason without even the most basic due process Americans expect from formal branches of government.

Very risky to build a business under one of these bodies. Now ironically, this is the sort of system the OP, who is a self-declared socialist, wants over every aspect of society.

This sort of arbitrary bureaucratic government has been the nature of socialist regimes everywhere.
Jan 27, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Possible consequence of these New York Trump lawsuits:

NY has long been a trusted hub for commercial law, with its laws and courts often chosen by contracting parties around the world.

Very public cases like this cast doubt on the integrity of those courts, and may lead parties to seek a more trustworthy legal forum.

This in turn could help undermine New York’s status as a global financial hub. This Trump case is just one example of the themes of my annual letter.

It shows how political conflict could contribute to the collapse of institutional trust—with knock-on effects that undermine the globalized system and resonate around the world.
Jan 12, 2024 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
My 2023 investor letter—outlining macro themes that define our strategy at @NewFounding:

As we enter 2024, I see three interrelated themes that explain contemporary societal fear, malaise, and conflict, and that frame the opportunity for a true positive alternative vision.

Each of these themes touches a key contemporary problem, and each reflects a pervasive underlying ideology. Together, they contribute to a broader breakdown in societal trust and order. Likewise, I see three corresponding solutions that must define a positive future. Many people emphasize one or two of these problems and/or solutions. I believe all three problems are deeply linked, and that successful responses will often include solutions to all three.

‍Global disruption:
‍Driven by an ideology of globalism, leaders in all segments of society have pursued connection with and dependence on distant counterparties. The decades surrounding the collapse of the Soviet Union saw an unprecedented growth of global trade and information flow and political openness. But as competition with China escalates, wars emerge in Europe and the Near East, and militias threaten trade routes with weapons that impose asymmetric costs, there is a rising awareness of the risks of such a system—fragility inherent in any sort of external or distant dependency. Moreover, the system of globalism creates a tragedy of the commons; tighter aligned groups, who are less focused on universal ideals, often politically outmaneuver those who are committed to the universalism necessary to sustain a global market.

The solution is household, community, regional, and national self-determination—a fractal approach that recognizes outside connections will remain, but systematically favors local (whether local to a geography or aligned community) interactions when feasible. Successful startups will facilitate such interactions, leveraging existing local networks or enabling new connections, rather than defaulting to the distant and anonymous.

‍Bureaucratic stagnation:
‍Managerialism—the push to professionalize / rationalize / commoditize every process and organization—has redefined the structure of our society over the past century. This process enables scale, a direct complement to globalization. But it also comes at a cost: bureaucratic impediments to decision-making, accountability, and innovation; rationalized processes that feel cold and sterile; commoditization that forces conformity and destroys variety. And it has led to widespread bloat, with outsized growth of administrative jobs in domains from finance to education, and departments like HR in every sector.

he solution is multifaceted—a combination of new frontiers and organizational models more dependent on ownership and skin in the game instead of bureaucratic checks, enabling an elevation of the human spirit even in a complex world. Startups inherently tend in this direction, and startups whose products empower decision-makers in complex environments (in contrast, for example, to those that abrogate human decision-making through hard-coded processes) will see particular appeal. AI will offer particular contrasts between tools that automate oversight mechanisms to allow the expansion of bureaucratic governance, and those that automate creative functions to give leverage to individuals.

‍Cultural and political alienation:
‍Cultural conflicts have encompassed every institution and area of American life in the past decade. Practices and traditions that were widely accepted have been attacked and deconstructed by ideological narratives—such as DEI and CRT—grounded in radical liberation and egalitarianism. While many see these as irrelevant "politics" that are bolted on to otherwise-neutral businesses, they in fact complement globalism and managerialism (one reason why any solution simply branding itself as “anti-woke” will struggle to meaningfully differentiate itself). They help strip people of familial and cultural attachments to make them more predictable/malleable participants in global bureaucracies, and offer a comfortable moral framework to people in such careers. While this has driven widespread corporate embrace of these ideologies, it has alienated millions of Americans.

The solution is a renewed embrace of the American tradition and Christian ideals. This means a recognition that these are good things, worthy of protection and celebration, and for many businesses and institutions, it means a proactive focus on marketing to and serving individuals and communities who still embrace these values—both because of the short-term opportunity to pick up customers alienated by competitors, and because truly serving these people will mean focusing on real problems and valuable, durable solutions.

‍New Founding's vision:
‍Americans are hungry for a positive vision they can rally around. Many in both politics and venture recognize key problems described above and promote solutions targeted at them. But too often, they approach these in isolation or focus on surface-level phenomena rather than the root issue—leaving doubt as to the viability or sufficiency of proposed solutions.

At New Founding, we see deep relationships among these problems, and believe that solutions that likewise touch multiple themes can be poised for successes that more isolated responses struggle to achieve. For example, a startup that not only markets to alienated conservative customers, but designs its product to be more empowering than bureaucratic alternatives, may parlay success with politically motivated early adopters into broader appeal across its sector. Likewise, the best response to an unreliable dependency on a global tech giant may not be an individualistic, trust-minimized technology (these often struggle to offer a competitive user experience), but rather an approach that builds on the deep trust that still exists in many aligned communities such as churches—creating a solution that is not just a necessary compromise given declining institutional trust, but a higher-trust and more personal alternative. In a world where the risks of scale and distance grow, impersonal bureaucracies stagnate, and culture battles rage, the greatest store of value will be high-trust communities.

We believe new ventures that address the core problems described above will benefit from growing macro tailwinds, and have not just niche appeal, but the potential to transform their sectors. Moreover, as disillusionment with current institutions grows, those who offer real solutions to our underlying problems will tap a hunger that crosses domains from politics to business, and inspire people with the opportunity to build a positive vision for America’s future.

Our ventures:
We are pursuing this vision through several efforts: our venture fund, a new real estate-focused unit, and a new venture we are developing in-house.

More details on these below. First, through the New Founding Venture Fund, we made two early-stage investments:

1) Presidio Healthcare (@PresidioCare)
Oct 19, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
I am thrilled to announce New Founding’s investment into Presidio Healthcare, leading their pre-seed round from our Venture Fund. Presidio is a health insurance startup offering innovative non-ACA policies designed for pro-life customers.

Presidio squarely fits New Founding's thesis: it is developing a competitive product in a sector in need of broad innovation, and is focusing on conservatives and Christians who are particularly dissatisfied by the status quo.

Presidio’s founders, Daniel Cruz and Bob Hogan, combine strong actuarial and regulatory expertise with experience at a successful health insurance startup. Their products will reflect their Catholic ethical commitments, and serve the desires of a broad group of healthcare consumers.

The healthcare sector itself is well positioned for new entrants. In the face of this opportunity, Presidio's founders have an innovative vision for a better and more cost-effective approach to health insurance. With many of the most exciting developments in healthcare happening in the self-pay space, Presidio's model will allow them to embrace these—offering their members better and cheaper care options.

We will see broader shifts in the healthcare space—with millions of Americans alienated by establishment medical trends from gender ideology to vaccine policy—and I believe that Presidio can play a key role in driving change. As Presidio grows, they intend to leverage their membership community to crowdsource a new network of providers who reject these ideologies and offer care that is aligned with our values—making them a natural integration layer for a new ecosystem. 🧵Image Presidio's initial plans will be aimed at individuals and families who buy their own insurance, and they intend to launch in Texas in 2024. You can join the waitlist for their policies here:

2/5
 presidiocare.com
Sep 16, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
I judge politicians on their effectiveness against the left.

In an existential war, you do not remove an effective officer—much less cede his position to the enemy—because an affair or gambling problem comes to light.

We are in a war for our civilization. Paxton and Boebert have been effective in important battles.

I’m open to arguments that flaws may undermine future effectiveness.

We should be judging everyone we choose to represent us, no matter how principled or virtuous, on that basis.
Jun 7, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
When people get upset about theft, it’s not about “protecting corporate profits.”

People are outraged at the offense to justice and order in their society.

And they sense how quickly unchallenged crime can spiral. This is similar to debates when someone intervenes against harassment of a third party on a subway.

It may not always be prudent, but the impulse is admirable.
Apr 28, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
It’s always smart to debate the prudence of tactics and messages we use.

But it would be wrong attribute the rise of the term “Christian nationalism” solely to hostile media. 🧵



1/9 The first National Conservatism conference was in 2019, elevating use of “national”/“nationalist” as terms of political identity—in clear opposition to globalism.

There has also been much discussion of the limitations of “conservatism” as a primary political identity...

2/9
Apr 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I am thrilled for the launch of our new center supporting Christian high education, to be led by @PJesseRine.

As broader higher ed faces serious headwinds, there is an exceptional opportunity for colleges that offer a faithful and distinct path. 1/4 As Josh notes, the need is great in this space. 2/4
Mar 13, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Bitcoin has been criticized for failing to move as an inflation hedge over the past few years.

I think this is both inaccurate and misses the point. 🧵 1/6 Bitcoin launched in January 2009—in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis—and is designed to offer protection against a fragile banking system even more than against inflation. 2/6
Mar 11, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The bull case for Bitcoin:

🧵 1/5 Cascading loss of trust in financial institutions leads to more bank runs.

Bank deposits viewed as less desirable; self-custody more desirable.

Fed pivots back to looser policy to avoid financial crisis.

2/5
Mar 4, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Many object to an atheist at a pastor’s event. That is not my primary concern here.

This is a political event. Its purpose is to court and equip pastors for a political movement. In the political domain, coalitions must cross theological lines. 🧵 1/6
What matters in politics is savvy political coalition-building.

An event like this will have attendees with diverse theological convictions. In the ecclesial domain, ecumenical compromise can threaten fidelity.

It is in politics where they can unite around a common cause. 2/6
Feb 22, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
New Founding is helping build the institutions needed for true cultural change.

Talent placement is central to this—to both professional fulfillment and mission success.

We are excited to expand our talent program with a new digital platform. 1/6 🧵
We have already connected co-founders, executives, and other key talent matches.

Open roles include CEO and other C-level jobs and a wide range of engineering and professional opportunities.

Our network includes highly skilled candidates motivated to join aligned orgs. 2/6 Image
Feb 10, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Good piece by @nic__carter describing alarming regulatory moves against crypto.

We must politically resist these attacks. But we should also consider emphasizing parallel and more resilient alternatives to the dominant financial regime. 1/10 🧵
piratewires.com/p/crypto-choke… There is a real possibility the US will become one of the most hostile jurisdictions for any crypto project—in line with warnings in The Sovereign Individual that the most developed countries would most violently resist the paradigm shift that threatens their central power. 2/10
Jan 26, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
It should be obvious that dogmatic liberals will not be reliable partners in a political coalition against the left.

They may at times be co-belligerents, but they reject both core right-wing values and an approach to politics itself that allows deeper partnership. It’s also not hard to see how so many liberals slid into woke illiberalism. There are still a few true liberals, but in many ways dogmatic liberalism—in its anathematization of many right-wing ideas—is closer to wokeism than it is to anything conservative.
Jan 8, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A sobering account of how the digital domain is largely governed in ways antithetical to the Anglo-American legal tradition.

As the digital layer of life grows, we will be more subject to opaque bureaucratic rule—unless we choose a different approach to digital age governance. This cannot be an afterthought: once we are invested in a network—as a user/consumer or business—the network effect gives its owner power over us.

The governance of a network must be a consideration in our decision to choose it (and grant it such power) from the start.
Jan 2, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I expect Twitter’s acquisition will be seen as a major turning point in political history.

Until this, digital platforms were treated primarily as “tech” companies.

@elonmusk recognized that Twitter is effectively an important layer of government. 🧵 1/8 While Musk is not an expert at governance, he is probably a far more capable statesman than most in Silicon Valley.

And unlike many there, he recognizes digital governance is more than an engineering problem, or even one of competent bureaucratic administration. 2/8
Jan 1, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This is a grim chronicle of the consequences of wokeness. Conventional politics offers limited hope of changing this.

Our focus must be building alternative networks and institutions that let Americans opt out of these schemes. And I believe this offers a path to victory. 🧵 1/7 The most important alternatives will be digital networks and intermediaries that curate, credential, and scale trust.

While the corruption of such institutions distorts everything they govern, aligned alternatives can free aspects of life to operate under them unmolested. 2/7
Dec 28, 2022 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
Missions to trendy/elite destinations (urban churches and college ministries) have several risks:

1) The draw of these high-status communities creates a stronger temptation to compromise on unpopular issues (and to attract people prone to compromise). 🧵 1/18 2) These ministries are in centers of cultural influence, and often attract well-credential staff, giving them disproportionate influence in the church/Christian discourse (even though as net recipients they should arguably instead defer to well-established churches). 2/18