Hotdog! Who's ready for the Sept Forecast Update. Y'all are gonna love it, bc it introduces a revised & better model created by @sam_epstein which expands on my OG vision: 3 measures of neg partisanship, 3 of realignment. It's fancy!!!…
Look- it even has a simulator for potential Electoral College outcomes! As you can see, the fundamentals are STRONG for Biden. And the new prez map offers you a rating on the race, the prob, plus a neg partisanship effect and a realignment effect for each state. There is a lot
to check out & play around w on there. Same for the senate map, which you can find here. Our senate model is very bullish on a controlled flip. It's nice to be able to quantify that better for you y'all. There is a long write-up talking about the pandemic, the pandemic effects &
most imp- the intro of massive uncertainty, what I call "known unknowns" that simply didn't exist in this cycle (or any other) prior to the pandemic. 1st, though, in terms of pandemic effects, we present probabilities of individual voters' vote choice based on 7pt party. We want
people to understand how powerful party is as a voter determinant. As I say in the write-up, practitioners & journalists segment voters by all kinds of demos (vet/business owner/suburban mom). Political scientists don't bother w that unless we're already segmented down to just
"pure" indies. The graph above shows why. Read the analysis to learn more and also to learn about how those little expanded areas of blue in the Weak Rs are potential @ProjectLincoln/@RVAT2020 effects, bc the pandemic screw-up has intro'd more persuasion than normal. pretty cool!
So, what ARE these "known unknowns?" We have a pandemic disrupting the entire voting system, disruptive even under a government trying its best to ensure the election goes smoothly- we don't have that kind of fed gov't bc the guy heading it AND HIS PARTY have declared open war
on universal & widespread suffrage. Certainly, suppressive voting systems are always a factor- but the widespread, sustained, full-court press Trump & the RNC are waging in a cycle in which access is already stressed is introducing a significant amount of uncertainty, esp since
Trump has stricken at the USPS delivery system directly. Google RNC voting lawsuits- its a party-wide, full-court press. This model, like Silver's and Morris' model, measures voter sentiments & fundamentals- all of which heavily favor Biden/Democrats based on the assumption of a
free and fair, democratic election. We cannot model some other type of election. Additional uncertainty: geographic displacement of college students & city workers. Another known, unknown- the decision by the Biden campaign & the DSCC and DCCC to unilaterally "disarm" and suspend
field, while the RNC is maintaining their field. We simply have no idea what a cycle where 1 side is doing field and the other is basically inert looks like bc we've never seen it. Another known unknown: digital asymmetry. The Biden campaign's digital effort is small and archaic
The Trump campaign's digital effort is massive and sophisticated. Many on consultants on the left laugh off this advantage but if these are the same people that told the Dems NOT to spend the 4 years between 2016 & now developing an indestructible infrastructure for Latinos- well
which is the last and final known unknown. How much better will the GOP's turnout operation end up being. The Ds are going to win the majority of Pure Is, as I said they would 13 mnths ago. + turnout of Is is going up. Turnout of white, college edus is surging. The other 2 known
unknowns for me is just how badly underdeveloped is the Biden campaign on outreach to voters under 30. Since every one of my worst nightmares about Latino voter infrastructure was correct, I'm going w "tragically." At least they have the Harris VP pick to pull up AA turnout.
2016 ended up being a story of third party defection and late breakers. There is little issues of that in 2020. Instead, 2020 is going to be a story of who's ballots get counted. That's the whole enchilada right there.
Also, don't @ me w any typos. Email me all of them at once, please.

I can no longer see straight!!

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More from @RachelBitecofer

26 Sep
1. Yes, listen to @BarbMcQuade people- its a party-wide effort, a coordinated & most importantly, a carefully crafted PRE-EMPTIVE plan to create what'll look like an organic "legitimacy" crisis to contest the election results. Then they hope a partisan SCOTUS will overturn lower
2. fed court decisions- based on REALITY- in a moment that (this not rhetorical bullshit) will mean the end of real democracy in America). But we can still head it off. We need to act. And I want rank and file Reps to join the rest of us and say "hell no" but that won't happen
3. Bc few rank & file Reps live in this reality, know these facts, understand this basic truth. At least as of Sept. 26 2020 at 9:19am. And the hour has grown very f'ing late to count on them. Instead, we need to look at helping our damn selves w those we've got. We need to stop
Read 7 tweets
26 Sep
1. Ok, now that I'm a free agent here's my 1st General Bitecofer Field Assignment. Fellow Gen in The Army of the Decent @SarahLongwell25 & her org @RVAT2020 did America a solid encouraging @OliviaTroye to go public. Not only do I need anyone willing & capable of it to thx them w
2. Donation (they struggle compared to their shinier cousins @ProjectLincoln but do equally critical work). But more importantly, I can tell listening to her there is SO MUCH more info the civilian work force in the WH has that can help save us, but coming out is devastating
3. You lose everything, become a pariah, get serious death threats that impact children, &having worked w Never Trump closely i can tell you life will never ever be the same. Unless, of course, he's vanquished. What would help us do that would be to help HER survive this. If
Read 4 tweets
26 Sep
1. So the youtube/economist poll is an online survey, which means its technically not a random prob sample (like the other onlines). These onlines (morning consult is another) make up for that downside by being FAR cheaper to run & thus being able to provide large n- which is
2. critical, bc in surveys w n less than really 800 (and that is pushing it) no one should be talking about cross tab data unless its a result in which a particular result is like a 15pt spread. Anything 7 pts is pushing it, bc the margins of error on crosstabs are about double
3. the overall survey n (this is a dirty little secret of polling) which is why I kinda cringe through the whole time TV analysts or threads are running through cross tabs and NOT telling you this and running through them AT ALL off of a survey with a 500 or 600 n size. Shouldn't
Read 35 tweets
26 Sep
1. These are not distractions @tomperez- Barr & @GOP are laying the groundwork that Ds are/have election corruption efforts w mail ballots in PA. They will then cite this stuff as "evidence" in Nov, Dec as they work to make vote-by-mail ballots "disappear."
2. They did the same thing w the Russia investigation to ensure that by the time the Mueller Report was released, at least among their own voters, anything Mueller found would be discounted by at least their own voters (including R leaners). This took time. They had to destroy
3. the credibility of Bob Fucking Mueller among Republicans for God's sake! And @TomPerez- let me ask you something. Did they do it? Yes, yes they did. Almost every Rep now believes the entire Russia investigation was a "witch hunt" that found nothing, that it vindicated Trump.
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
1. This is bc the experts in '16 missed a MASSIVE firealarm in polling- the 2-3Xs higher than normal "undecideds" in the data. It left a big % of the 2-party vote share "unexplained. " It's 1 reason the forecasts blew the swing states so badly. And here, it presents a certainity
2. that was totally erroneous but between this presentation and the one media was getting off 538 and NYTs the narrative was Clinton is a dominant frontrunner. The problem is that with 10-15% of the 2-party vote still in flux, that's not the right narrative! And this is 1 of the
3. problems w "herding." Not shown is the "EXPLAINED vote share"- which is the amount of the eventual, inevitable 100% of the vote explained by totaling Clinton & Trump's vote share. I knew about this vote bc in my VA polling, I was working to mitigate the unexplained vote
Read 10 tweets
23 Sep
1. OMG. I've been restrained here. Remarkably, frankly, given...

I'm assuming Elliott was blocked for pointing out that @NateSilver538's model is expanding prob even as polls stay flat bc "days until," which he used to suppress his model's probability, are disappearing quickly.
2. As those days disappear his model will inevitably march towards a high probability. One that @gelliottmorris' more honest model is already. And you know what? I'm guessing since Morris released his Congress forecast today & its honest account produces the honest prob of 99%
3. (But note, not 99.5%-LOL, sorry couldn't resist) anyway, the 99% is the more honest account then what the 538 modeling is accomplishing. You know how you can tell? Look at which 1 is making their data and methodology available. And as you all know, I have no incentive here.
Read 6 tweets

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