Hotdog! Who's ready for the Sept Forecast Update. Y'all are gonna love it, bc it introduces a revised & better model created by @sam_epstein which expands on my OG vision: 3 measures of neg partisanship, 3 of realignment. It's fancy!!! niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-epst…
Look- it even has a simulator for potential Electoral College outcomes! As you can see, the fundamentals are STRONG for Biden. And the new prez map offers you a rating on the race, the prob, plus a neg partisanship effect and a realignment effect for each state. There is a lot
to check out & play around w on there. Same for the senate map, which you can find here. Our senate model is very bullish on a controlled flip. It's nice to be able to quantify that better for you y'all. There is a long write-up talking about the pandemic, the pandemic effects &
most imp- the intro of massive uncertainty, what I call "known unknowns" that simply didn't exist in this cycle (or any other) prior to the pandemic. 1st, though, in terms of pandemic effects, we present probabilities of individual voters' vote choice based on 7pt party. We want
people to understand how powerful party is as a voter determinant. As I say in the write-up, practitioners & journalists segment voters by all kinds of demos (vet/business owner/suburban mom). Political scientists don't bother w that unless we're already segmented down to just
"pure" indies. The graph above shows why. Read the analysis to learn more and also to learn about how those little expanded areas of blue in the Weak Rs are potential @ProjectLincoln/@RVAT2020 effects, bc the pandemic screw-up has intro'd more persuasion than normal. pretty cool!
So, what ARE these "known unknowns?" We have a pandemic disrupting the entire voting system, disruptive even under a government trying its best to ensure the election goes smoothly- we don't have that kind of fed gov't bc the guy heading it AND HIS PARTY have declared open war
on universal & widespread suffrage. Certainly, suppressive voting systems are always a factor- but the widespread, sustained, full-court press Trump & the RNC are waging in a cycle in which access is already stressed is introducing a significant amount of uncertainty, esp since
Trump has stricken at the USPS delivery system directly. Google RNC voting lawsuits- its a party-wide, full-court press. This model, like Silver's and Morris' model, measures voter sentiments & fundamentals- all of which heavily favor Biden/Democrats based on the assumption of a
free and fair, democratic election. We cannot model some other type of election. Additional uncertainty: geographic displacement of college students & city workers. Another known, unknown- the decision by the Biden campaign & the DSCC and DCCC to unilaterally "disarm" and suspend
field, while the RNC is maintaining their field. We simply have no idea what a cycle where 1 side is doing field and the other is basically inert looks like bc we've never seen it. Another known unknown: digital asymmetry. The Biden campaign's digital effort is small and archaic
The Trump campaign's digital effort is massive and sophisticated. Many on consultants on the left laugh off this advantage but if these are the same people that told the Dems NOT to spend the 4 years between 2016 & now developing an indestructible infrastructure for Latinos- well
which is the last and final known unknown. How much better will the GOP's turnout operation end up being. The Ds are going to win the majority of Pure Is, as I said they would 13 mnths ago. + turnout of Is is going up. Turnout of white, college edus is surging. The other 2 known
unknowns for me is just how badly underdeveloped is the Biden campaign on outreach to voters under 30. Since every one of my worst nightmares about Latino voter infrastructure was correct, I'm going w "tragically." At least they have the Harris VP pick to pull up AA turnout.
2016 ended up being a story of third party defection and late breakers. There is little issues of that in 2020. Instead, 2020 is going to be a story of who's ballots get counted. That's the whole enchilada right there.
Also, don't @ me w any typos. Email me all of them at once, please.
I can no longer see straight!!
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The Cycle Monday Memo
Live Free. Die fast. Get Digested Slowly
Let’s begin with a quick vibe check. Are you breathing air with an AQI over 300 today? Wearing Crocs in public because it’s too hot for socks but too dangerous to go barefoot? Great. Then you’re ready for this week’s news.
The Elon Musk Civil War: America Party Edition
First up, our favorite discount Bond villain, Elon Musk, declared civil war on the Republican Party this week by suggesting he’s launching the “America Party,” a political vehicle so inspiring it was conceived during a Twitter poll with as much methodological rigor as your drunk uncle asking, “Who wants to go to Waffle House?” at 3am.
Now, Musk says he didn’t actually file an FEC filing for a new party. That’s what his lawyer told him, anyway. So maybe he did, maybe he didn’t. He’s a busy guy juggling at least 6 jobs with a ketamine and video game addiction.
What we know for sure: conservative influencers lost their minds at the idea.
In case you’re wondering how Trump feels about it, he issued his usual sized rant, to which Elon responded: I ain’t reading that.”
Elon Musk has decided America needs a new political party. And not just any party – the America Party, founded on the deeply inspiring and universally unifying mission of… eliminating the national debt??
(Please RT this!)
Don’t get me wrong, there is always decent public support for lowering the debt, theoretically.
Its when you get into the specifics of how to achieve debt reduction, which requires either massive tax increases or massive spending cuts in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, that support drops massively.
🧵🚨🧨🎇🎆U.S. Blues
States Once Ruled Your Mind, Body, and Bedroom.
They Want to Do It Again
Tomorrow is July 4th. Independence Day. Almost 250 years since America went to war to declare itself free from being ruled by a king and created government for the people, by the people.
For the love of democracy, please RT👇
But for the first time since the Civil War, the survival of American democracy is at stake.
100 years ago, Americans were not all that free, and certainly not free in the modern sense.
Most Americans had almost no protection from government overreach – not just from the federal government, but from their state governments.
States could ban birth control. States could segregate schools, buses, and lunch counters. States could make it illegal to publish certain books or possess certain films. States could search your home or tap your phone with few limits. States could shut down your speech. Your liberties were almost entirely at the mercy of state governments.
Shit has hit the fan in LA and other Blue cities as the realities of rounding up millions of people, many of whom have lived in the U.S. for years or came as children and have grown up American begin to take root. thecycle.substack.com/p/the-cycle-mo…
For those of us who’ve spent the last 6 months discussing how Trump would use mass deportations to create chaos is the Blue states and then use that chaos as an excuse to declare a national emergency and seize total power, things are right on schedule.
Although MAGA seems to think Democrats created the illegal immigration problem, the issues with illegal immigration dates back decades and is a byproduct of decisions made by the last 8 or 9 presidents combined.
Here’s the truth they don’t teach in high school civics or scream about on Fox News: America didn’t always have a “border crisis.”