Thread by @RachelBitecofer

Hotdog! Who's ready for the Sept Forecast Update. Y'all are gonna love it, bc it introduces a revised & better model created by @sam_epstein which expands on my OG vision: 3 measures of neg partisanship, 3 of realignment. It's fancy!!! niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-epst…

Look- it even has a simulator for potential Electoral College outcomes! As you can see, the fundamentals are STRONG for Biden. And the new prez map offers you a rating on the race, the prob, plus a neg partisanship effect and a realignment effect for each state. There is a lot

to check out & play around w on there. Same for the senate map, which you can find here. Our senate model is very bullish on a controlled flip. It's nice to be able to quantify that better for you y'all. There is a long write-up talking about the pandemic, the pandemic effects &

most imp- the intro of massive uncertainty, what I call "known unknowns" that simply didn't exist in this cycle (or any other) prior to the pandemic. 1st, though, in terms of pandemic effects, we present probabilities of individual voters' vote choice based on 7pt party. We want

people to understand how powerful party is as a voter determinant. As I say in the write-up, practitioners & journalists segment voters by all kinds of demos (vet/business owner/suburban mom). Political scientists don't bother w that unless we're already segmented down to just

"pure" indies. The graph above shows why. Read the analysis to learn more and also to learn about how those little expanded areas of blue in the Weak Rs are potential @ProjectLincoln/@RVAT2020 effects, bc the pandemic screw-up has intro'd more persuasion than normal. pretty cool!

So, what ARE these "known unknowns?" We have a pandemic disrupting the entire voting system, disruptive even under a government trying its best to ensure the election goes smoothly- we don't have that kind of fed gov't bc the guy heading it AND HIS PARTY have declared open war

on universal & widespread suffrage. Certainly, suppressive voting systems are always a factor- but the widespread, sustained, full-court press Trump & the RNC are waging in a cycle in which access is already stressed is introducing a significant amount of uncertainty, esp since

Trump has stricken at the USPS delivery system directly. Google RNC voting lawsuits- its a party-wide, full-court press. This model, like Silver's and Morris' model, measures voter sentiments & fundamentals- all of which heavily favor Biden/Democrats based on the assumption of a

free and fair, democratic election. We cannot model some other type of election. Additional uncertainty: geographic displacement of college students & city workers. Another known, unknown- the decision by the Biden campaign & the DSCC and DCCC to unilaterally "disarm" and suspend

field, while the RNC is maintaining their field. We simply have no idea what a cycle where 1 side is doing field and the other is basically inert looks like bc we've never seen it. Another known unknown: digital asymmetry. The Biden campaign's digital effort is small and archaic

The Trump campaign's digital effort is massive and sophisticated. Many on consultants on the left laugh off this advantage but if these are the same people that told the Dems NOT to spend the 4 years between 2016 & now developing an indestructible infrastructure for Latinos- well

which is the last and final known unknown. How much better will the GOP's turnout operation end up being. The Ds are going to win the majority of Pure Is, as I said they would 13 mnths ago. + turnout of Is is going up. Turnout of white, college edus is surging. The other 2 known

unknowns for me is just how badly underdeveloped is the Biden campaign on outreach to voters under 30. Since every one of my worst nightmares about Latino voter infrastructure was correct, I'm going w "tragically." At least they have the Harris VP pick to pull up AA turnout.

2016 ended up being a story of third party defection and late breakers. There is little issues of that in 2020. Instead, 2020 is going to be a story of who's ballots get counted. That's the whole enchilada right there.

Also, don't @ me w any typos. Email me all of them at once, please.

I can no longer see straight!!