Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Sep 16, 2020 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I think people are looking at this NGAD demonstrator a little differently than they should. Technology demonstrators are used to reduce risk and prove various technologies so that they can be incorporated into an operational system down the line. This can include everything 1/X
from sensor systems to propulsion systems to aerodynamic shaping and production methods. Often times, multiple aspects can be rolled into a single demonstrator. We have examples of this, like Have Blue, Tacit Blue, Bird of Prey etc but the reality is that far far more...
Technology demonstrators have existed than we really can imagine. They are built for limited flight time and in some cases in a rapid iteration series. There are dozens of highly classified programs ongoing out A51 and elsewhere at any given time, some do not involve...
Full up unitary test articles/demonstrators, some do. For the few that have been declassified, there are many many more we will probably never know about, some of which are buried in unmarked graves out there. This has been the process for over half a century so...
imagine how fast we can iterate test articles and demonstrators now with modern manufacturing and rapid prototyping. Some of the methods in doing so are closely guarded secrets themselves. Large span composite structures and digital design reduce time and cost in doing so...
Considering the strategic challenges that lay ahead of us, and the fact that the future of air combat will cooperative, leveraging advanced networks and intertwined families of systems, not just a new do all missions/carry all sensors super fighters, it is only logical that...
These new concepts of thinking have been iterated in demonstrators and test articles. In fact, this is the way of the future, not just spending years designing and building a YF anything and then putting into production years later...
What would be far more troubling and surprising is if there was no demonstrator flying, or demonstrator for some of the technologies and concepts behind what will be a family of new air combat systems. We should expect far more demonstrators and test articles now than ever...
And even ones that have existed before the NGAD program came to be could be re-roled to support testing of aspects of that program. As far as I understand it, this type of 'recycling' is not rare. That being said, could a more mature demonstrator...
of a tailess, supercruising, long-range quasi-'fighter' (in name only, like the B-21 is 'bomber') be flying? Yes. That is possible. But it is unlikely to be a prototype as some have called it and other articles likely support other aspects of the program...
... Including for one airframe that will makeup NGAD. Even parts of the B-21 program could have worked to reduce risk for NGAD. So, the bottom line, there is a ton of this happening. We don't see it so it seems new. With modern manufacturing capabilities that should only
accelerate, using rapid iterations of test articles to define requirements and then move to a more complex technology demonstrator. The F-35 saga has taught everyone that the old way of doing things will not work fiscally or strategically. So adopting a Skunk Works model...
for development of these new aircraft is only logical. Even testbed aircraft that would support these programs will likely be less highly modified and costly aircraft, instead their testing functions spread across more platforms. So, the bottom line, if the USAF wasn't testing...
its hunches and different aspects to support new technologies surrounding air dominance with flying demonstrators, that would be highly troubling. But it's still nice to get a confirmation of what we should already know.

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More from @Aviation_Intel

Sep 13
A year ago we published this very deep dive about the development of Anduril's Fury CCA. At the time I got a LOT of hate mail & comments saying this was vaporware and 'they have zero shot.' Lot's of folks from the big primes told me the same...

twz.com/the-rise-of-fu…
We developed this story over years, many interviews, transition after the Anduril acquisition & change from adversary drone to CCA. We had no doubt in our minds that this had a shot.

It was subsequently selected alongside General Atomics in competition for phase 1 CCA contract.
CCA & the larger advanced autonomy uncrewed space it will help open the door to is in many ways a bigger opportunity than any crewed platform. While the contract $ may be smaller early on, whoever gains supremacy here has the best shot at a far less volatile & larger future market
Read 7 tweets
May 27
Seeing this widely reported. Satellite imagery doesn't confirm a successful strike on another strategic Russian early warning radar site & low res imagery appears to be misinterpreted by some. Below is an image we obtained from Planet Labs taken at 0500 UTC this morning... 1/x
Image
It shows no outright signs on an attack or major damage to the array or the facility. We must highlight that commercial satellite imagery is limited as to what it can show. Small shrapnel damage could exist that is not apparent, but nothing really looks out of place....
The dark spots on the pavement which some claim from low res imagery are evidence of an attack reduce in size between this image and an image taken an hour later, pointing to them being residual water, not impact or fire damaged areas...
Read 5 tweets
Apr 19
This may have been a one and done. Hopefully calm going forward, BUT stimulating Iran's most critical air defenses and getting their up-to-date electronic order of battle prior to something larger is a very real tactic, especially using vulnerable decoys. I think the likelihood is that this is not the case, but it still must be considered.
Israel is the absolute king of this exact tactic set and wrote the book on it using drones. They have systems specifically designed for this.
The date on this is wrong, i believe I wrote this in 2016 or 2017, before the suicide drone craze, but here's the background: twz.com/4760/meet-isra…
Read 7 tweets
Apr 14
Iran has set Netanyahu up for what he has been wanting for decades. Will he take the opening and go big against Iran’s nuclear program (capacity dependent) or go for a limited operation aimed at hurting iran in other ways, especially economically. If the latter, oil infrastructure could be top target. Hitting standoff weapons production and installations (much tougher than oil) is another possibility. No way to know but this is new territory. Next 48 hours will be absolutely pivotal. Ball is now in Israel’s court.
The Iran’s display/demonstration of potential delivery systems, and willingness to employ them on Israel directly, even if largely unsuccessful, has also given him better backing to go after their nuclear program.
Lowest risk response and well within IDF’s organic capabilities is going after IRGC and proxy targets all over the neighborhood, but that may be the least likely option at this point. Still possible.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 28
Wonder how long Iran’s support/sea base ship that has been sitting in the Red Sea for a long time and now i believe may be in the Gulf of Aden, very likely a conduit of intel for Houthi anti-ship attacks, will be above the water? We are rapidly heading toward a direct confrontation with Iran. In the end, that’s who is behind all this. Avoiding such a confrontation is logical on many levels, but the time may come when that’s no longer politically acceptable.
Israel took a swing at the one that this one replaced: thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…
And please remember an outright war with Iran would be extremely dangerous/deadly, potentially VERY expensive, and economically highly disruptive. And what’s the endgame? It would come at a time when the US military is drowning in priorities elsewhere.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
Remember, every time a anti-ship ballistic missile, and in most cases anti-ship cruise missile, was fired by Houthi forces, we new its launch location via spaced based infrared warning satellites. We have been watching these launch patterns for weeks. This is in addition...
to many other forms of intelligence gathered on where these missiles are being fired and where they are being stockpiled or moved around like a shell game. This is still imperfect. Funding mobile missile systems and striking them is very challenging. It will be interesting...
what they actually got tonight and how much remains in play. Most of it will likely be the latter as the Houthis have been planning for retaliation and have dealt with fighting the Arabs time sensitive strike efforts for years. But now that the gloves are off, if the Houthis...
Read 8 tweets

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