This may have been a one and done. Hopefully calm going forward, BUT stimulating Iran's most critical air defenses and getting their up-to-date electronic order of battle prior to something larger is a very real tactic, especially using vulnerable decoys. I think the likelihood is that this is not the case, but it still must be considered. Israel is the absolute king of this exact tactic set and wrote the book on it using drones. They have systems specifically designed for this.

Iran has set Netanyahu up for what he has been wanting for decades. Will he take the opening and go big against Iran’s nuclear program (capacity dependent) or go for a limited operation aimed at hurting iran in other ways, especially economically. If the latter, oil infrastructure could be top target. Hitting standoff weapons production and installations (much tougher than oil) is another possibility. No way to know but this is new territory. Next 48 hours will be absolutely pivotal. Ball is now in Israel’s court. The Iran’s display/demonstration of potential delivery systems, and willingness to employ them on Israel directly, even if largely unsuccessful, has also given him better backing to go after their nuclear program.

Wonder how long Iran’s support/sea base ship that has been sitting in the Red Sea for a long time and now i believe may be in the Gulf of Aden, very likely a conduit of intel for Houthi anti-ship attacks, will be above the water? We are rapidly heading toward a direct confrontation with Iran. In the end, that’s who is behind all this. Avoiding such a confrontation is logical on many levels, but the time may come when that’s no longer politically acceptable. Israel took a swing at the one that this one replaced: thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…

Remember, every time a anti-ship ballistic missile, and in most cases anti-ship cruise missile, was fired by Houthi forces, we new its launch location via spaced based infrared warning satellites. We have been watching these launch patterns for weeks. This is in addition... to many other forms of intelligence gathered on where these missiles are being fired and where they are being stockpiled or moved around like a shell game. This is still imperfect. Funding mobile missile systems and striking them is very challenging. It will be interesting...

Remember Hezbollah is sitting on a stock of anti-ship missiles. They scored a hit on a Sa’ar 5 class corvette off Lebanon 17 years ago. Their capabilities have evolved significantly since then thanks to Iran. They also have many types of loitering munitions that have been used against ships. The US Navy will not be operating in an uncontested environment if Hezbollah joins the conflict. A carrier strike group is the most defended piece of territory on the planet, but non state actors with these weapons have been proven to be a threat (see the Houthis and activities around the southern end of the Red Sea). And even targeting of US Navy vessels may not be intended if they look to deny/disrupt naval activities in the E. Med. Anti-ship missiles, in many cases, do not work on assured targeting, especially the stuff they have.

If Hezbollah attacks there is nothing in history that will compare to how heavily taxed an integrated air defense system will be like then. Israel’s IADS is the most advanced and layered on earth, but the scale and variety of what will be sent south is unlike anything we’ve seen. Long range rockets, cruise missiles, suicide drones, etc etc. Iran has armed them to the teeth for many years with increasingly advanced weaponry. The numbers are bewildering. Overwhelm is that strategy.

An update on the supposed attack on Saky Airbase in Crimea yesterday. New satellite imagery shows no visible damage to any aircraft/major infrastructure (PRELIMINARY analysis). But, just today, within a span of hours between images, it does look like an attack occurred... 1/X

You can see a fire burned the field and there appears to be a crater near the small building and the items near it appear to have been disrupted/destroyed. It is possible that this was caused by a failed air defense missile or some other accident, but that seems unlikely...

The threat of cruise missile attacks on the Black Sea Fleet in port has become very real. These missiles (Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG/Neptune land attack variant) use infrared imaging with scene/imaging matching for terminal homing. Hence why Russia painted their ships to break up their IR silhouettes. This was not done to make it hard to spot them in satellite imagery. That does not work even in mediocre commercial imagery nor does it necessitate the sides of the hulls being painted to match. If the missile does not match its target based on preset threshold parameters it aborts its attack. These ships began being painted like that just as Storm Shadow arrived. Now land attack Neptune in play with greater range. Also note the two ships hit were a submarine and a amphib that was not painted in that manner. They were also static in drydock where not much changes in their surroundings between initial targeting and attack. We have written about this for months now, see linked posts in this thread, but the Black Sea Fleet could be under extreme threat after this attack, especially if indeed cruise missiles were employed. More reading:
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r…

Examining high-res sat imagery taken this AM of Russia's airbase in Kursk that supposedly came under mass drone attack shows nothing outright in terms of damage. No aircraft appear destroyed. This is a cursory look, analysis could change. That base has heavy ADs to overcome. Photo © 2023 Planet Labs inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted by permission (yes we pay a lot for this access and must abide by our contract terms including this copyright disclaimer)

AP gave us no credit on this. Now everyone is crediting them.

thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r… Contrast their 'report' apnews.com/article/south-…

The U.S. is incredibly well equipped for fighting short high-end wars, but sustaining those efforts over longer terms, not so much. The enemy is fully aware of this. If you don't get the job done before the capacity/capability curve reverses on you, you are in big trouble.

The US cluster munitions for Ukraine issue is something we have explored a lot. Yes, it’s very controversial. Submunition dispensing artillery shells have clear applications for Ukraine. The most pressing being the ability to deal with open trench networks without initially… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… More reading thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u…

Among the big questions now are who will actually fight who? Will Russian regular troops kill their fellow Russians? Will the federal security services? Who will join Prigozhin? The longer this lasts the worse it is for Putin. The next hours will be historic & crucial. Prigozhin has likely known his days were numbers for some time. We have watched his statements get more damning every day. He now has nothing to lose and a private army behind him as well as a docile stronghold. Krelmin not stopping him before he took Roston was massive failure.

Basic somewhat accurate reminder of Titanic's size versus the monstrosity fun ships that are plowing the seas today. Positively quaint in terms of beam. https://t.co/oCyvo8YgWitwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Once again, just a general idea here in terms of comparison, this time length.

I just might be done w/Marvel's stuff. Just hard to be interested in it. Not some super fan, but I have seen the shows & movies. Just don't find it really interesting anymore & the quality now is... mostly bad. Very derivative. Collapsing under the weight of its own universe. I have not seen Guardians 3, so there's that. And sure a good story I am still down for. But not investing in it like they require you to. DC will rule the comic cinema roost going forward I think. JG is the man. Peacemaker was GREAT.

Plenty of M2 Bradleys to replace losses in Ukraine. We have a surplus. People talk like they're exquisite weapon systems available in tiny numbers or something. Losing a dozen or so in the 1st week of hitting a reinforced Russian front hundreds of miles long is a win, not loss. I think the public thinks they are rare or something because the decision to send them was such a long, high profile ordeal. But that was not because we have small numbers of them available, it was mainly a geopolitical one, not one of supply. Ukraine is not the first country… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

"They have no reason to lie" is a statement for people not in this business or who are and have an agenda. Red flag immediately when you hear that. I don't mean in passing or anecdotally in conversation, that's fine, but as some sort of definitive statement.

People lie or buy… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… And of course, people are terrible witnesses. They interpret things the best they can and can be totally wrong (and often are). This includes dog walkers and fisherman and fighter pilots and everyone in between. It's just part of the human condition. Past experience, personal… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Every day this war goes on Ukraine's kinetic reach expands in magnitude and frequency. Taking the war to Moscow IS the goal. Little drones will turn into way more drones of increasingly complexity, then into cruise missiles, then ballistic missiles... They have relatively advanced indigenous ballistic missile tech. If you don't think they aren't doing everything they can to get what they set aside a few years ago up operational we are living in different universes. And they are likely getting help. thedrive.com/the-war-zone/d…

There is some speculation on a possible hit on a Patriot battery near Kyiv. Key points:

First, while that’s entirely possible, Patriots, like every missile, do fail, sometimes spectacularly right on launch (see example below). So a flash of light or something near a battery… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… For instance
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/1…

I wrote a big piece six or so years ago about the need for a stealth tanker. People thought I was nuts then. Not so much anymore. It was a painful thing to write because there really shouldn't be such a urgent need for that capability. The USAF continuing to invest very heavily… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Here is that piece, the time stamp is wrong due to a CMS update. We have done many, many follow ups sense then. But this was the case then and now:
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/7…

The drop in quality of The Mandalorian this season is astonishing. Terrible choices starting with Book Of Boba Fett, but by now they reset everything that was earned by the end of season 2. Such a rich story could have been had. Just terrible writing, dumb filler, and the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… What changed? They probably stretched the production players too thin with all these shows number 1. The effects were so great before, now they look washed out and cartoonish like most everything else. The Volume is readily apparent and distracting now. But I can’t believe the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…