The missing link for the USAF is and always has been (for basically a decade and a half+, a proper very low-observable, long-range, 4,500lb payload-class UCAV. We can only hope that's what's hiding in the darkness. It's HIGHLY doubtful it exists in any significant combat mass if it is out there, it's more likely it is being rushed into service... Finally.

Fingers crossed. 1/X Full background on this issue you need to read. This was published in 2016 (date stamp is wrong). twz.com/3889/the-alarm…

People on here stating “see I predicted China could launch drone swarms from ships off the coast two years ago!” are so funny. Bro some of us have been on this for well over a decade. And in great detail, not a tweet. The cruise missile threat from a similar vector tis literally a 25 year old issue the DoD has been working. You think F-15s got AESA radars 20 years ago just because it’s just a better radar for shooting down fighters? Everyone suddenly a drone expert. It’s like clockwork. Love the guys that shit on it or dismissed it for years now suddenly all knowing visionaries on it.

For over a decade I have outlined the exact scenario as we just saw in Russia. It could happen in the U.S. tomorrow. This was a pivotal event. U.S. military and political leadership cannot live in partial denial of this threat anymore. Our most prized aircraft are sitting ducks. I have focused on this issue above all else in my career. I care deeply about it. The failure of the DoD to foresee what was totally foreseeable, with obsessions with yesterday's threats is such a failure. We need to educate our non military leaders on what this is, a huge issue as well (see New Jersey). So much work to be done. Hardened aircraft shelters is still be debated in the Pacific. We are really in a bad spot here.

Lockheed’s NGAD entrant revealed! For the FH-45 Skunk Works came to the conclusion that airfield independence was MOST important, paired with stealth, supersonic cruise and unlimited magazine depth!

Absolutely nothing that has happened in terms of drones over US bases is a surprise. The DoD and other agencies totally failed on this and my team have documented this in extreme detail for a decade+.

Thank you 60 Minutes for giving us the credit we deserve. It took Langley AFB to get invaded for them to really wake up (and we broke the Langley story just like all the other incursion stories, but it was later stolen/repackaged without credit by WSJ months later). This should be very alarming and troubling.

Posted this in January. You don't need a 'kill switch' to severely hamper the utility of an exported weapons system, you just stop providing support for it and it will wither away, some systems very quickly. The more advanced the faster the degradation. This is in addition...

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1882975663382286432

the impact from being locked out of centralized cloud-based system like F-35's ODIN (ALIS) that does so many things, including mission planning w/threat intel integration. Your jets would be far more vulnerable to loss without it...

As we noted in our story last night on the H-60/CRJ collision, the Capital Region is the most highly surveilled area of sky in the United States. Beyond radar, including ATC, military fire control, CUAS microwave radar systems, electro-optical/infrared sensors and passive detection systems also thickly blanket the area. There is nowhere else like this in the United States. So the data on these flights, specifically off-board telemetry, will far more detailed and plentiful than in a normal accident investigation. Stories for background... 1/X twz.com/37582/the-lase…

They will end up pulling this back/correcting it.

https://twitter.com/foxnews/status/1884315643329273950

It was vastly people reporting airplanes and helicopters and a few drones (hobbyist, LE) mixed it. This was either very poorly worded or very carefully worded, either way it avoids the bottom line reality.

Just a reminder that the U.S. military has one of the most advanced aerial surveillance capabilities on planet earth, the latest and greatest, sitting right there in New Jersey — literally an Aegis destroyer's sensor suite on land.
twz.com/40718/heres-wh… And they would not see anything of scale because this is a silly farce. YES, U.S. military installations have had sporadic but very concerning drone incursions. Positive ID's objects. NO, New Jersey is not being invaded by mystery drones. YES, the news media is a joke on these issues by and large and you are being swindled by engagement farmers on social media showing you airplanes and mundane garbage with spooky captions.

You want to see a glaring example of how some of mainstream media has totally lost its credibility, look at the drone story. They aren't even trying to get it right because the answers are not very exciting and you can't keep slapping the red button that is drawing audience.

Also understanding any of it takes work. Same reporter that covered a dog show or a car crash yesterday is covering this today. It's bad. Really bad. And the UFO angle means they don't even have to take it seriously at all, which is an unfortunate thing we have seen forever. Really makes you think it's a futile exercise at this point.

A year ago we published this very deep dive about the development of Anduril's Fury CCA. At the time I got a LOT of hate mail & comments saying this was vaporware and 'they have zero shot.' Lot's of folks from the big primes told me the same...

twz.com/the-rise-of-fu… We developed this story over years, many interviews, transition after the Anduril acquisition & change from adversary drone to CCA. We had no doubt in our minds that this had a shot.

It was subsequently selected alongside General Atomics in competition for phase 1 CCA contract.

Seeing this widely reported. Satellite imagery doesn't confirm a successful strike on another strategic Russian early warning radar site & low res imagery appears to be misinterpreted by some. Below is an image we obtained from Planet Labs taken at 0500 UTC this morning... 1/x

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1794968658361385114

It shows no outright signs on an attack or major damage to the array or the facility. We must highlight that commercial satellite imagery is limited as to what it can show. Small shrapnel damage could exist that is not apparent, but nothing really looks out of place....

This may have been a one and done. Hopefully calm going forward, BUT stimulating Iran's most critical air defenses and getting their up-to-date electronic order of battle prior to something larger is a very real tactic, especially using vulnerable decoys. I think the likelihood is that this is not the case, but it still must be considered. Israel is the absolute king of this exact tactic set and wrote the book on it using drones. They have systems specifically designed for this.

Iran has set Netanyahu up for what he has been wanting for decades. Will he take the opening and go big against Iran’s nuclear program (capacity dependent) or go for a limited operation aimed at hurting iran in other ways, especially economically. If the latter, oil infrastructure could be top target. Hitting standoff weapons production and installations (much tougher than oil) is another possibility. No way to know but this is new territory. Next 48 hours will be absolutely pivotal. Ball is now in Israel’s court. The Iran’s display/demonstration of potential delivery systems, and willingness to employ them on Israel directly, even if largely unsuccessful, has also given him better backing to go after their nuclear program.

Wonder how long Iran’s support/sea base ship that has been sitting in the Red Sea for a long time and now i believe may be in the Gulf of Aden, very likely a conduit of intel for Houthi anti-ship attacks, will be above the water? We are rapidly heading toward a direct confrontation with Iran. In the end, that’s who is behind all this. Avoiding such a confrontation is logical on many levels, but the time may come when that’s no longer politically acceptable. Israel took a swing at the one that this one replaced: thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…

Remember, every time a anti-ship ballistic missile, and in most cases anti-ship cruise missile, was fired by Houthi forces, we new its launch location via spaced based infrared warning satellites. We have been watching these launch patterns for weeks. This is in addition... to many other forms of intelligence gathered on where these missiles are being fired and where they are being stockpiled or moved around like a shell game. This is still imperfect. Funding mobile missile systems and striking them is very challenging. It will be interesting...

Remember Hezbollah is sitting on a stock of anti-ship missiles. They scored a hit on a Sa’ar 5 class corvette off Lebanon 17 years ago. Their capabilities have evolved significantly since then thanks to Iran. They also have many types of loitering munitions that have been used against ships. The US Navy will not be operating in an uncontested environment if Hezbollah joins the conflict. A carrier strike group is the most defended piece of territory on the planet, but non state actors with these weapons have been proven to be a threat (see the Houthis and activities around the southern end of the Red Sea). And even targeting of US Navy vessels may not be intended if they look to deny/disrupt naval activities in the E. Med. Anti-ship missiles, in many cases, do not work on assured targeting, especially the stuff they have.

If Hezbollah attacks there is nothing in history that will compare to how heavily taxed an integrated air defense system will be like then. Israel’s IADS is the most advanced and layered on earth, but the scale and variety of what will be sent south is unlike anything we’ve seen. Long range rockets, cruise missiles, suicide drones, etc etc. Iran has armed them to the teeth for many years with increasingly advanced weaponry. The numbers are bewildering. Overwhelm is that strategy.

An update on the supposed attack on Saky Airbase in Crimea yesterday. New satellite imagery shows no visible damage to any aircraft/major infrastructure (PRELIMINARY analysis). But, just today, within a span of hours between images, it does look like an attack occurred... 1/X

You can see a fire burned the field and there appears to be a crater near the small building and the items near it appear to have been disrupted/destroyed. It is possible that this was caused by a failed air defense missile or some other accident, but that seems unlikely...

The threat of cruise missile attacks on the Black Sea Fleet in port has become very real. These missiles (Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG/Neptune land attack variant) use infrared imaging with scene/imaging matching for terminal homing. Hence why Russia painted their ships to break up their IR silhouettes. This was not done to make it hard to spot them in satellite imagery. That does not work even in mediocre commercial imagery nor does it necessitate the sides of the hulls being painted to match. If the missile does not match its target based on preset threshold parameters it aborts its attack. These ships began being painted like that just as Storm Shadow arrived. Now land attack Neptune in play with greater range. Also note the two ships hit were a submarine and a amphib that was not painted in that manner. They were also static in drydock where not much changes in their surroundings between initial targeting and attack. We have written about this for months now, see linked posts in this thread, but the Black Sea Fleet could be under extreme threat after this attack, especially if indeed cruise missiles were employed. More reading:
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r…

Examining high-res sat imagery taken this AM of Russia's airbase in Kursk that supposedly came under mass drone attack shows nothing outright in terms of damage. No aircraft appear destroyed. This is a cursory look, analysis could change. That base has heavy ADs to overcome. Photo © 2023 Planet Labs inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted by permission (yes we pay a lot for this access and must abide by our contract terms including this copyright disclaimer)