Moat: 1. $TDOC $LVGO: First Mover Advantage with Self Insured Companies, Providers and Payers who want a single contact to provide all of Telehealth and monitoring. Once in with engagement, chances of churn is very limited due to patient stickiness.
.. $ROKU ..will post tomorrow.
$TDOC has increased their moat by aggregating all services under one umbrella including Second Opinion, Hospital Remote Services, Remote Monitoring for chronic conditions with Livongo etc. With this comes pricing power as patient engagement cost gets optimized
$TDOC $LVGO has the best business with predictable revenue forecast because selling with self insured clients, payers etc. is done in advance and engagement levels can be predicted quite accurately based on data analytics.
For $TDOC $LVGO selling season is usually Sept -Dec and this year's COVID needs, will put them in a much better pricing and negotiation power with their clients as contracts are awarded and renewed. Once this is done, they can monetize this next year irrespective of COVID outcome
$TDOC has the most extensive provider network compared to any of their competition which is a very big moat as well.
Recent regulation supporting telehealth reimbursements and relaxing physician in person supervision requirements are huge tailwinds for $TDOC
$TDOC $LVGO Mental Health Management through digital app and remote session is a blockbuster service that will be a high growth revenue generator . The remote model is more private and accessible . Growth in this sector is scorching . Teladoc will be the leader
Increasing patient engagement models using $LVGO data science ( Deep reinforcement learning AI models ) will be another revenue driver as Livongo charges based on per engaged patient
Septum has allocated most to $TDOC $LVGO due to predictable sustained growth of the business model , huge TAM, management caliber, lack of able competition .
A really close call on what is number 1 choice for us was between $TDOC and $SE as both are the best bets currently we feel .
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A tweet on my real estate buying. I invested in Colorado home because : 1. Familiarity factor with the region 2. Historic price appreciation with increasing proven demand 3. Long term, climate change impact for Colorado is one of the lowest across all US States.
contd.
4. Property taxes are also one of lowest across all US states. 5. State income tax is moderate to low at around 4%. Combines with low property taxes, best combination available. 6. Parts where I invested had price appreciation even in real estate crash in 2008.
contd.
7. Besides diversification of my concentrated growth equities portfolio, I also am able to use leverage ( 4:1 with 25% down) on asset inflation. The market I invested is expected to go up by 10% by 2022 which gives intrinsic 40% returns besides some cashflow from rentals
1> $SKLZ Here is what I am aware in terms of market dynamics. Some of it based on discussion with other experts -
Archegos held a huge number of swaps of Skillz. Credit Suisse is still selling them.
This
2> Best estimate is Archegos swaps were equivalent to 20 M shares of Skillz that has been going forced selling. Even today Credit Suisse seems to be putting up blocks of SKLZ to sell. This coupled with Short sellers ( who piled on to the downtrend ) is putting sell pressure.
3> Short sellers are very active. 35% of float has been shorted in 6 weeks with 20 days to cover. Day to cover is short interest divided by average daily volume. The 20 day to cover is worse than GME situation it seems. So my take is that any solid good news from the company...
1> $GDRX Earnings Call Insights : There is a high growth business embedded in GoodRx business model which is ad spend by branded drugs ( 30B market) on searches done by consumers inside GoodRx. 20% of those searches are for brand medications. During 2020, this business grew 4X.
2>All revenue from this business directly goes to bottomline. "..provides us with a high contribution since there is typically no incremental consumer acquisition costs given we already have over 18 million monthly visitors to our platform and have ample inventory" - CFO on call
"We're working on a significant multi-brand partnership with a leading manufacturer, which we hope to formally announce soon." - Earnings call
1> $SKLZ Insights - It is clear that the company is focusing on finding and keeping the profitable cash paying players in the ecosystem ( paid MAUs) rather than investing in keeping the entire set of players engaged monthly ( MAUs). It makes sense. See below..
2> Supposed you acquire 100 users, and you find through algos that 30 users potentially can pay while other 70 are hard to convert. So you will investing engagement dollars in converting say 16 out 30 to a paid monthly active user and not spend much to retail all. 70...
3> This strategy has two effects. You now have 16 paid MAUs out of say 100 originally acquired users. But since you are not investing much in retaining other 70 , you may end up losing 10 out of that 70 free users. So while MAUs may not grow but the profitable paid segment grows.
1>Earlier, I stressed the importance of doing your own Due Diligence on stocks before buying. My Key Steps :
A.) Review Financials B.) Read Investor Deck C.) Listen to Earnings calls/ read transcripts D.) Listen to Investor conferences E.) Check Institutional Holdings ...contd.
F) Check Insider Transactions/Activities G) Technical analysis of stock ( RSI, Moving averages etc.) H) Options Activity (IV, Skew, Put/Call etc.) I)Read S-1 and other key SEC filings J)Analyst Ratings, Reports K)Earning Estimates and Surprise Record L) Comps with Peers ...
M)Employee Feedback ( Glassdoor, Blind etc.) N) Customer Feedback ( Gartner Reviews , Forrester etc.) O.) Management history and track record P.) Quant Indicators including Dark Pool, Investor Sentiment, Factors like Momentum, Quality, Correlation with Peers etc. Q) Blogs etc..
Merry Christmas to all of you. Based on what I have seen in my 3-4 months stint here at FinTwit, here would be my year end advice: 1) Do your own DD. Invest the time. Do not follow a trade just because a FinTwit guy with a ton of followers said that.
2.) I have seen by looking at tweets on stocks that a lot of FinTwit do not invest the time to understand a stock deeply. This is critically important for you, if you want to be successful over long term.
3.) It is not possible to do DD on all key stocks. So having a process to do DD is important even if you are full time or part time investor. I do this full time and I still find it difficult to keep up. So use as many tools , data, reports as possible