Living at the intersection of Deep Learning and Financial Markets
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Sep 7, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
A tweet on my real estate buying. I invested in Colorado home because : 1. Familiarity factor with the region 2. Historic price appreciation with increasing proven demand 3. Long term, climate change impact for Colorado is one of the lowest across all US States.
contd.
4. Property taxes are also one of lowest across all US states. 5. State income tax is moderate to low at around 4%. Combines with low property taxes, best combination available. 6. Parts where I invested had price appreciation even in real estate crash in 2008.
contd.
Apr 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1> $SKLZ Here is what I am aware in terms of market dynamics. Some of it based on discussion with other experts -
Archegos held a huge number of swaps of Skillz. Credit Suisse is still selling them.
This
2> Best estimate is Archegos swaps were equivalent to 20 M shares of Skillz that has been going forced selling. Even today Credit Suisse seems to be putting up blocks of SKLZ to sell. This coupled with Short sellers ( who piled on to the downtrend ) is putting sell pressure.
Mar 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1> $GDRX Earnings Call Insights : There is a high growth business embedded in GoodRx business model which is ad spend by branded drugs ( 30B market) on searches done by consumers inside GoodRx. 20% of those searches are for brand medications. During 2020, this business grew 4X.
2>All revenue from this business directly goes to bottomline. "..provides us with a high contribution since there is typically no incremental consumer acquisition costs given we already have over 18 million monthly visitors to our platform and have ample inventory" - CFO on call
Mar 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1> $SKLZ Insights - It is clear that the company is focusing on finding and keeping the profitable cash paying players in the ecosystem ( paid MAUs) rather than investing in keeping the entire set of players engaged monthly ( MAUs). It makes sense. See below..
2> Supposed you acquire 100 users, and you find through algos that 30 users potentially can pay while other 70 are hard to convert. So you will investing engagement dollars in converting say 16 out 30 to a paid monthly active user and not spend much to retail all. 70...
Dec 28, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1>Earlier, I stressed the importance of doing your own Due Diligence on stocks before buying. My Key Steps :
A.) Review Financials B.) Read Investor Deck C.) Listen to Earnings calls/ read transcripts D.) Listen to Investor conferences E.) Check Institutional Holdings ...contd.
F) Check Insider Transactions/Activities G) Technical analysis of stock ( RSI, Moving averages etc.) H) Options Activity (IV, Skew, Put/Call etc.) I)Read S-1 and other key SEC filings J)Analyst Ratings, Reports K)Earning Estimates and Surprise Record L) Comps with Peers ...
Dec 25, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Merry Christmas to all of you. Based on what I have seen in my 3-4 months stint here at FinTwit, here would be my year end advice: 1) Do your own DD. Invest the time. Do not follow a trade just because a FinTwit guy with a ton of followers said that.
2.) I have seen by looking at tweets on stocks that a lot of FinTwit do not invest the time to understand a stock deeply. This is critically important for you, if you want to be successful over long term.
Dec 18, 2020 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
1> $SKLZ I share my convictions but I try to stay away from long discussions & arguments about the thesis mainly because it is time consuming especially when the time investment to do the DD is not uniform across the group. Every phenomenal investment started like this.
2> For $SHOP in 2017, I had seen arguments that most of their merchants are just reselling goods from AliExpress which was also true at some point. For $TWLO there was talk about $5 customers in 10s of thousands that made up their customer base. Judging them early is a fallacy.
Dec 4, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$FSLY Takeover rumors today. They are almost always false unless coming from reputed sources like WSJ or FT . These rumors are spread by traders to spike the price up and profit from it ( probably riding up and then down ). I had seen this happen with $NTNX $CLDR so many times
seekingalpha.com/news/3592285-n…
Oct 21, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1>A thread on ARK Invest. I like most of their investments but I would never invest in a stock just because someone else did because their investment horizon, portfolio risk, return expectation, liquidity needs may be different from mine. Ark does not equate to guaranteed returns
2>Ark made some great investments over time and notably among them are Tesla and Nvidia. But do you know mid 2018 ( if I remember correctly), what was Ark's biggest portfolio stock with largest allocation? It was $SSYS and it is still there but declined in price over time.
Sep 16, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Moat: 1. $TDOC $LVGO: First Mover Advantage with Self Insured Companies, Providers and Payers who want a single contact to provide all of Telehealth and monitoring. Once in with engagement, chances of churn is very limited due to patient stickiness.
.. $ROKU ..will post tomorrow.
$TDOC has increased their moat by aggregating all services under one umbrella including Second Opinion, Hospital Remote Services, Remote Monitoring for chronic conditions with Livongo etc. With this comes pricing power as patient engagement cost gets optimized
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