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Sam Scarpino Profile picture
@svscarpino
Sep 16, 2020 • 5 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
SARS-CoV-2 survives longer on common surfaces than does SARS1. Many of us believe this aspect of #COVID19 remains under-appreciated. Today, the @CDCgov released a report documenting the possible high-risk for environmental transmission of this virus. 1/5 wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26… Image
This past spring, an experimental study published in @NEJM found that SARS-CoV-2 survives much longer on cardboard, stainless steal, and plastic than does SARS1. 2/5 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… Image
Using these lab estimates--and a mathematical model fit to data from 17 different countries--Prof. Ogbunu (@big_data_kane) et al., found strong evidence for a role of environmental transmission in #COVID19 epi. 3/5 medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
As Prof. Ogbunu & his team @Yale point out, there are other models which are consistent with the epi patterns seen in these countries. However, given the increasing evidence for the role of environmental transmission in #COVID19, this is something we can't afford to ignore. 4/5
As a co-author on Prof. Ogbunu's pre-print, I'm biased. But, I'll also be the first to admit that, while we may end up being wrong about the importance of environmental transmission, the steady build-up of experimental, observational, & theoretical evidence cannot be ignored. 5/5

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More from @svscarpino

Sam Scarpino Profile picture
Oct 15
1/ We're seeing a concerning rise in H5 wastewater positivity in Turlock CA.

Unlike previous H5 signals, @WastewaterSCAN is showing an exponential rise in H5 (and flu A) concentration that has persisted for almost a month! Figure shows an exponential rise in flu A concentration in wastewater over the past month. The inset shows H5 positive samples. Data from WastewaterSCAN. Location is Trulock CA.
2/ For those following #H5N1 in CA, there have been positive farms there since late Aug.

@globaldothealth we're working w/ @ThinkGlobalHlth and @CFR_org to maintain a timeline of key events. This tracking allows us to better piece together signals. thinkglobalhealth.org/article/timeli…Timeline showing the first announced positive farms in CA on Aug 30th.
3/ I'm concerned about the H5 wastewater signal because it lags far behind the uptick in farms and is better correlated with the rapid rise in human infections. thinkglobalhealth.org/article/timeli…Timeline shows the rise in reported H5N1 human infections beginning in late Sept/early Oct.
Read 9 tweets
Sam Scarpino Profile picture
May 6
1/ New #H5N1 pre-print ⬆️ the threat level for the ongoing outbreak in dairy cows.

Researchers found that cow mammary glands contain the same kind of mixed flu receptors seen in pigs.

This mix of receptors is why scientists call pigs "evolutionary labs for flu host switching". Graphical abstract showing the three cell surface receptors used by influenza in humans, chickens, and ducks. The figure then shows where sampling occurred in cows (brains, trachea, mammary glands), and the distribution of cell receptors in the various organs.
2/ One of the key changes required for avian flu to transmit effectively in humans involves flu's hemagglutinin (HA) host cell receptor preference.

tl;dr The cell surface receptor influenza uses in birds is subtly different from the one in the human upper-respiratory tract. Cartoon from Chauhan & Gordon illustrates influenza's replication cycle. A red arrow indicates where the HA glycoprotein is binding to the host cell receptor triggering uptake into the host cell.
3/ While changes in HA binding are only one of many required, they are thought to be key in governing influenza host range.

journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.11…
Read 13 tweets
Sam Scarpino Profile picture
Apr 24
1/ I've seen many comments along the lines of, "We have no evidence that pasteurization inactivates #H5N1."

We actually have quite a bit of evidence to suggest pasteurization will work and the presence of viral RNA is compatible w/ that evidence.

Why am I not panicked? A🧵
2/ Milk is pasteurized by heating it briefly to ~72 C (161F). This inactivates pathogens, but does filter the milk. As a result, there can be degraded genomic material from pathogens following pasteurization. PCR, as was done by the FDA, can detect these degraded genomes.
3/ Numerous peer-reviewed studies have found that pasteurization will inactivate influenza A virus, including #H5N1. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 6 tweets
Sam Scarpino Profile picture
Apr 1
1/ A human case of #H5N1 was just reported and is linked to the ongoing outbreak in US dairy cattle.

How concerned should we be?

It's good news that the patient is experiencing eye symptoms and had direct exposure to infected cattle.

Why? 🧵
2/ As you may know, avian influenza doesn't readily infect humans (and doesn't transmit well from human-to-human) in part because of subtle differences in key cell surface receptors. journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.11…
3/ However, our eyes actually contain the bird-flu-friendly confirmation of the cell surface receptor. This is why eye inflammation is often a symptom of avian influenza infection in humans. thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Read 10 tweets
Sam Scarpino Profile picture
May 17, 2023
1/ What's the global state of wastewater surveillance?

On behalf of authors from >20 countries & all continents, A Keshaviah, @megan_b_diamond, M Wade, & me survey capacity & what's needed going forward. @RockefellerFdn @MathematicaNow @NUBouve @LancetGH thelancet.com/journals/langl…
2/ Following a convening of @RockefellerFdn's Global Wastewater Action Group, we partnered w/ @MathematicaNow and surveyed representatives of wastewater monitoring programs in 43 countries (16 LMICs, 27 HICs) spanning six continents (when I said "all" I didn't count Antartica). Figure: Population coverage...
3/ In high-income countries, composite sampling at centralized treatment plants was most common, whereas grab sampling from surface waters, open drains, and pit latrines was more typical in low-income and middle-income countries.
Read 9 tweets
Sam Scarpino Profile picture
Jan 31, 2023
1/ Data from @WastewaterSCAN shows that rates of SARS-CoV-2, RSV, and influenza have dropped precipitously from their winter peaks!

We still have a ways to go, but things are clearly headed in the right direction. US national wastewater surveillance data from the wastewater
2/ Although for SARS-CoV-2 we've been hovering at peak levels for over a month and we need to see at least another month of continuously falling prevalence before we're back to more "baseline" levels. US national wastewater surveillance data from the wastewater
3/ And note how *LONG* the RSV outbreak has been in the US.

We've been above 25% of the peak height for >3 months! US national wastewater surveillance data from the wastewater
Read 4 tweets

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