Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Sep 16, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Thread: It's interesting that some commentators who expressed concern over the Abraham Accords not doing enough to get concessions from Israel on a Palestinian state...are often the SAME ones who appeased Iran (and often Turkey too) and thus drove Israel and the Gulf together.
What people don't understand about appeasing aggressive countries like Iran is that when you do it, there is unforeseen blowback. When threatened, countries will come together, and thus you achieve the opposite of what you thought "engaging moderates" would do
Imagine for instance if Ankara had been stopped before invading Afrin...it might have worked more peacefully in EastMed, instead of pushing a crisis that rapidly led to military and defense ties, end of arms embargo for Cyprus etc...
If you signal to an aggressive, militarist country it can do what ever it wants, eventually those it threatens will unite, usually fearing for their own survival if they don't. Threats against Israel, for instance, never achieved anything for the aggressors.
Western countries have too often thought that "engagement" by "diplomacy" will achieve results. But look at the Syria's conflict. It was the Astana process that achieved results, never John Kerry and his "process"...because actions lead to results, not talk.
If you create a vacuum of power through not being willing to stand up to aggression, then something will fill the vacuum. Each action has a reaction. This is science and international relations. Ignoring the need to be tough in the face of threats leads to policy missteps.
This idea that you always have to give regimes like Iran everything they want or they might be "more extreme" is predicated on false notions that to stop extremism, you have to give it things. All that does is lead to the opposite goal that was intended.

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More from @sfrantzman

Apr 23
These three paragraphs incapsulate the whole Gaza war and Hamas genocidal dictatorship there. Numerous hostages said they were held at a hospital, as part of the Hamas illegal massacre. “Medical officials” deny this…clearly because there is an omertà among them to never mention Hamas or its criminal use and exploitation of medical facilitators. The genocidal group, which is backed Iran and western allies, systematically used hospitals to move hostages…and no one “saw” anything. The Hamas regime is empowered and supported by international organizations and their omertàImage
Notice none of the medical people say “we saw Hamas moving hostages into the hospital but it’s our duty to provide care”…which would have been a normal excuse. Imagine if a cartel moved hostages to a hospital in Sinaloa…you could imagine that medical professionals might explain it that way. But Hamas has such control that the medical people will never mention their presence due to non-disclosure agreements that clearly have been agreed with these medical folk. They treated hostages but have an omertà with the authoritarian regime that the west empowered and cemented in control.
What did western countries know and when did they know it about October 7? What do they know via their contacts in Gaza about the location of hostages? How much of the Hamas holding of hostages in hospitals was known by western NGOs? Did western doctors in Gaza treat hostages and help Hamas? How much is Hamas empowered by the west and its allies and covered for by them? Hostages don’t get taken to hospitals in Gaza and no one sees anything. They knew. And they didn’t do anything. It’s like that movie Spotlight. They knew.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 19
Emma is heroic here. It is a shame on the audience they are not applauding here but rather trying to hide. There was a time when people would stand up and applaud and demand the release of Tsurkov who is illegally kidnapped in Iraq. What a shame. A shame on the audience. It speaks volumes about the amorality of today. The lack of heroism and ethics and decency and humanity.
This is shame. Instead of standing up and supporting the kidnapped Tsurkov. Why is it so hard to support a researcher illegally held by this vile regime. Stand up and applaud. Stand up and be counted. Image
Remember when people talked about “speaking truth to power.” Here it is. A woman speaking truth to power while men squirm in their chairs afraid of a woman’s voice demanding the release of her sister by this chauvinist regime.

Shame. Shame. Shame.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 17
This may seem an unlikelt conclusion, but my sense is that the Hezbollah "Radwan" force and Hamas "battalions" are sort of symptoms of the same problem in analyzing the conflicts. In both cases Israel has focused a lot of attention on these entities, as if defeating them is a measurement of achievement.
Here is why this is problematic.
Hamas didn't used to have "battalions." It used to be a much smaller terror group. It grew into a terror army with "battalions" primarily because it was allowed to. Israel's numerous wars in Gaza each ended with Israel claiming achievements against the Hamas "metro" or something else. And in each case Hamas rapidly recovered and expanded.
The 24 "battalions" are thus an example of the whole problem of managing the conflict with Hamas. It became exponentially stronger. And when the war began after the Hamas attack, I think a lot of battalions dispersed and went to ground...so the "defeat" of the battalions was only partial and partly on paper.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 16
There should be a kind of "alternate history" article(s) on how Iran and its proxies were empowered to grow exponentially in the region and it should include Israel's policies, which were ostensibly against Iran and the proxies...but explain how this ended up with Iran in an unprecedented and strong position on Israel's borders.
What I mean is the aphorism, when everyone is thinking the same thing, someone isn't thinking. It requires a critical reading of the history to explain the policies that enabled Hamas to become exponentially more powerful than it was 20 years ago.
And it requires some explanation why Israel's conception of strategy decided that having an increasingly powerful Hezbollah on the northern border, especially after the challenges of 2006...became "this is fine." Even as it became clear that Hezbollah was not deterred, but rather Israel was becoming deterred.
Read 19 tweets
Apr 15
I just realized that one outcome of Iran launching such a massive unprecedented attack using drones and missiles is that it wanted to create a new bar for such attacks in the future so it can attack Israel with fewer projectiles directly and then have it portrayed as normal and acceptable
You see all the people who already went to bat for this narrative claiming this was just a symbolic attack not meant to succeed…so they now define 350 missiles as acceptable. And so if Iran launches 20 missiles they will have redefined that as fine
The whole narrative when it comes to Israel is always to define things that are unacceptable in any other context, such as attacks on civilians, as basically normal and acceptable “retaliation” or “resistance” and thus make any Israeli response “escalation”
Read 4 tweets
Apr 15
The worst takes on the Iranian attack of April 13-14 are those who call it “symbolic”. This was a massive, unprecedented attack of historic proportions. Never before in history were so many drones, ballistic, missiles and cruise missiles (350 in total) used at the same time in an attack, and from several different fronts and directions, including attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and from the direction of Yemen and over Iraq and Jordan, and almost all of it timed to arrive within around ten minutes of eachother…

Those who think it was “symbolic” or designed not to succeed either know nothing about the weapons involved, the complexity of planning this, know nothing about history, know nothing about the complexity of the air defenses involved and billions of investment it took over four decades to meet this attack, or are simply being purposely disingenuous (more likely).
I suspect most of those making the comment aren’t purposely ignorant, they know firing 350 drones and missiles that require different times to arrive and targeting different areas of Israel with precision from four directions is incredibly complex and was not designed to fail…they need to downplay it for some reason. Because by their logic if 350 is symbolic then what would 1,000 missiles be?
If Iran wanted a symbolic attack it would have launched a dozen missiles. Does anyone say the attack on Asad base was “symbolic” and it involved two dozen missiles right?
Read 5 tweets

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