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Nick Gourevitch Profile picture
@nickgourevitch
Sep 16, 2020 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Latest @NavigatorSurvey out this AM: Three-fifths of voters think Trump has given up fighting coronavirus and just 39% say he's fighting hard to stop the spread.
The public thinks Trump has given up on coronavirus even as half still say the "worst is yet to come" on the crisis and rates as the top priority for the federal government to be working on right now above other issues.
Trump's job approval overall (-12) and on the pandemic (-17) are under water. While down from their low points in July, his ratings remain in low 40s.
We took a look and what is bothering people about the President's behavior in recent weeks and the top two answers are his downplaying of coronavirus and how he's making the situation in cities across the country worse.
Within the coronavirus issue specifically, the top concerns about Trump's recent handling of the issue is the admission of downplaying coronavirus (i.e. Woodward tapes). His push to rush to get a vaccine approved before the election, even if unsafe, is #2.
Some interesting/sobering data on vaccines this week. There is a gap between the number of people who say they are pro-vaccine (71%) and the number who say they would get vaccinated for coronavirus (50%). Will explore why in subsequent tweets...
We asked people who said "not sure" or "no" about getting a coronavirus vaccine: what's your hesitation? Top answer is "I generally support vaccines, but feel unsure about whether the coronavirus vaccine will be safe." In other words, there is unique concern about THIS vaccine.
And when you ask people -- what's the bigger concern, going too quickly on a vaccine or going too slowly -- an overwhelming number say the bigger concern is going too quickly. 70%+ of voters support vaccines, but they want one that's healthy, safe, and not politically motivated.
Finally, guess who is least trusted on the development and distribution of a coronavirus vaccine? Yes, no surprise there, our President. Far more trust in Fauci, FDA, drug companies.
Full report can be found here. navigatorresearch.org/navigating-cor…

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More from @nickgourevitch

Nick Gourevitch Profile picture
Nov 6, 2022
Small thread on non-response bias… Most pollsters, myself included, agree the main problem in 2020 was non-response bias, where lower engaged voters responded to polls at lower rates but still voted. These voters were not adequately reflected in the polls in 2020. But 2022…
2022 is a midterm. Probably higher turnout that past midterms but still no presidential. So the big question when you field a poll is — is it non-response bias when people do or don’t answer your poll or is it some indicator of turnout/motivation.
You don’t really know. We model and analyze and do our best to control for all this in fairly sophisticated ways. We look at different scenarios and try to come up with the best answer we can with the data we have because that’s the job. But it’s impossible to really know…
Read 7 tweets
Nick Gourevitch Profile picture
Dec 4, 2020
Inspired by @leedrutman's excellent, bookmarkable, 2016 voter study group analysis in 2016, the team at @NavigatorSurvey created a similar chart on it's post-election survey.
There continues to be more people in the social conservative/economic liberal quadrant where the GOP continues to do well than the Acela social liberal, economic conservative quadrant. Though it appears there was more Biden-GOP ticket-splitting going on in the latter group.
The sample size of Biden-GOP voters is tiny so this deserves more study. But from this it appears that these voters were closer to straight Dem ticket voters on coronavirus issues and furthest away on economics (and some cultural issues).
Read 7 tweets
Nick Gourevitch Profile picture
Aug 5, 2020
Latest @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll out: Today's release hit an unfortunate milestone in that more than half of Americans (51%) now say they know someone who has been infected with coronavirus.
It's taken some time, but the public has now largely concluded that the United States' response to the coronavirus is worse than most other countries in the world. 63% now say that, up from 57% in late June and 51% in mid-May.
As such, the President's pandemic approval rating remains deeply under water -- 38% approve, 60% disapprove, with roughly half of voters (49%) "strongly" disapproving.
Read 9 tweets
Nick Gourevitch Profile picture
May 27, 2020
Week 10 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: The great mask debate of 2020 isn't much of a debate at all. A classic case of a silent majority. 74% of the country self-identifies themselves as "pro-mask" while just 18% say they are "anti-mask."
Trump is out of step on masks as 65% disapprove of his not wearing masks, while just 27% approve. It's rare to see a 60%+ disapprove on any Trump metric because GOP voters typically hold strong for him. Voters also strongly support requiring elected officials to wear masks.
Meanwhile, our tracking poll this week continues to show Trump's approval rating on the pandemic deeply under water -- 55% disapprove and 41% approve.
Read 10 tweets
Nick Gourevitch Profile picture
May 20, 2020
Week 9 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: Trump approval for handling of pandemic at a new low, 40% approve/56% disapprove, with approval at 11% with Democrats, 32% with Independents, and 77% with Republicans.
47% report hearing mostly negative things about Trump's handling vs. 17% who say mostly positive (and 32% mixed). The negative conversation on Trump has been around reopening, testing, masks, ignoring experts. (NOTE: interviews completed before his hydroxychloroquine declaration)
On reopening, 35% think their state is moving too quickly, 41% getting timing right, 17% not quickly enough. In states that respondents say are "more open than closed", a plurality say things moving too quickly. In states where things are "more closed" a plurality say about right
Read 12 tweets
Nick Gourevitch Profile picture
May 9, 2020
Day 35 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: Since hitting it's peak in early April, there has been a steady decline in the number of people who say "the worst is yet to come." However, in recent days, that number has started to tick back up as worry over a "second wave" is high.
Coverage of mask-wearing is being covered like the new "culture war" -- just another blue vs. red divide. But something is different here as 2/3 of the country is wearing masks regularly. The divide is really within the GOP as roughly half of Republicans are and half aren't.
And those mask-wearing Republicans hold attitudes in line with the rest of America on the degree we are in a crisis, worry over infection, and whether we should re-open. This puts them closer to Dems and Independents on these things than their non-mask wearing GOP counterparts.
Read 6 tweets

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