Nick Gourevitch Profile picture
Sep 16, 2020 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Latest @NavigatorSurvey out this AM: Three-fifths of voters think Trump has given up fighting coronavirus and just 39% say he's fighting hard to stop the spread.
The public thinks Trump has given up on coronavirus even as half still say the "worst is yet to come" on the crisis and rates as the top priority for the federal government to be working on right now above other issues.
Trump's job approval overall (-12) and on the pandemic (-17) are under water. While down from their low points in July, his ratings remain in low 40s.
We took a look and what is bothering people about the President's behavior in recent weeks and the top two answers are his downplaying of coronavirus and how he's making the situation in cities across the country worse.
Within the coronavirus issue specifically, the top concerns about Trump's recent handling of the issue is the admission of downplaying coronavirus (i.e. Woodward tapes). His push to rush to get a vaccine approved before the election, even if unsafe, is #2.
Some interesting/sobering data on vaccines this week. There is a gap between the number of people who say they are pro-vaccine (71%) and the number who say they would get vaccinated for coronavirus (50%). Will explore why in subsequent tweets...
We asked people who said "not sure" or "no" about getting a coronavirus vaccine: what's your hesitation? Top answer is "I generally support vaccines, but feel unsure about whether the coronavirus vaccine will be safe." In other words, there is unique concern about THIS vaccine.
And when you ask people -- what's the bigger concern, going too quickly on a vaccine or going too slowly -- an overwhelming number say the bigger concern is going too quickly. 70%+ of voters support vaccines, but they want one that's healthy, safe, and not politically motivated.
Finally, guess who is least trusted on the development and distribution of a coronavirus vaccine? Yes, no surprise there, our President. Far more trust in Fauci, FDA, drug companies.
Full report can be found here. navigatorresearch.org/navigating-cor…

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More from @nickgourevitch

Nov 2, 2024
There is a discourse right now presented as pollsters who are nefariously herding vs. pollsters who are honest. Some pollsters may be nefariously herding (I am NOT picking that fight w/ @NateSilver538!), but taking steps to try to reduce variance is not inherently nefarious.
If you view the purpose of polls as to produce a random draw for the polling aggregators, then taking steps to reduce variance caused by known phenomenon like partisan non-response bias is unacceptable herding. I get that POV from the purists but it’s not the only POV.
A different, also reasonable view, is that the purpose of a poll is to use the best methods available to predict the outcome. Taking methodological steps to reduce variance, like weighting on partisan variables to turnout models, is not inherently herding.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 26, 2024
There's some good and important discussions about weighting on vote recall on polling Twitter. At @GSG, we have found that doing it made our polls more accurate in '22, and would have made them more accurate in '20. We've put out reports on it (links at end of thread). I am...
I'm sympathetic to the idea that vote recall weighting is restrictive and we should let polls float around more and let the data tell us things like who is going to turn out. I'm especially sympathetic to the public pollsters who feel that way since they have a different role.
The "holy grail" of polling is building some kind of mechanism that uses voters responses to questions like vote likelihood, or motivation, or disposition rates, to tell us more about who is going to turn out. Sadly, I'm not convinced anyone has found that "holy grail." And...
Read 9 tweets
Nov 6, 2022
Small thread on non-response bias… Most pollsters, myself included, agree the main problem in 2020 was non-response bias, where lower engaged voters responded to polls at lower rates but still voted. These voters were not adequately reflected in the polls in 2020. But 2022…
2022 is a midterm. Probably higher turnout that past midterms but still no presidential. So the big question when you field a poll is — is it non-response bias when people do or don’t answer your poll or is it some indicator of turnout/motivation.
You don’t really know. We model and analyze and do our best to control for all this in fairly sophisticated ways. We look at different scenarios and try to come up with the best answer we can with the data we have because that’s the job. But it’s impossible to really know…
Read 7 tweets
Dec 4, 2020
Inspired by @leedrutman's excellent, bookmarkable, 2016 voter study group analysis in 2016, the team at @NavigatorSurvey created a similar chart on it's post-election survey.
There continues to be more people in the social conservative/economic liberal quadrant where the GOP continues to do well than the Acela social liberal, economic conservative quadrant. Though it appears there was more Biden-GOP ticket-splitting going on in the latter group.
The sample size of Biden-GOP voters is tiny so this deserves more study. But from this it appears that these voters were closer to straight Dem ticket voters on coronavirus issues and furthest away on economics (and some cultural issues).
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5, 2020
Latest @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll out: Today's release hit an unfortunate milestone in that more than half of Americans (51%) now say they know someone who has been infected with coronavirus.
It's taken some time, but the public has now largely concluded that the United States' response to the coronavirus is worse than most other countries in the world. 63% now say that, up from 57% in late June and 51% in mid-May.
As such, the President's pandemic approval rating remains deeply under water -- 38% approve, 60% disapprove, with roughly half of voters (49%) "strongly" disapproving.
Read 9 tweets
May 27, 2020
Week 10 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: The great mask debate of 2020 isn't much of a debate at all. A classic case of a silent majority. 74% of the country self-identifies themselves as "pro-mask" while just 18% say they are "anti-mask."
Trump is out of step on masks as 65% disapprove of his not wearing masks, while just 27% approve. It's rare to see a 60%+ disapprove on any Trump metric because GOP voters typically hold strong for him. Voters also strongly support requiring elected officials to wear masks.
Meanwhile, our tracking poll this week continues to show Trump's approval rating on the pandemic deeply under water -- 55% disapprove and 41% approve.
Read 10 tweets

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