Nick Gourevitch Profile picture
Democratic Pollster. Partner at Global Strategy Group (@GSG). Dad to three.
Nov 6, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
Small thread on non-response bias… Most pollsters, myself included, agree the main problem in 2020 was non-response bias, where lower engaged voters responded to polls at lower rates but still voted. These voters were not adequately reflected in the polls in 2020. But 2022… 2022 is a midterm. Probably higher turnout that past midterms but still no presidential. So the big question when you field a poll is — is it non-response bias when people do or don’t answer your poll or is it some indicator of turnout/motivation.
Dec 4, 2020 7 tweets 4 min read
Inspired by @leedrutman's excellent, bookmarkable, 2016 voter study group analysis in 2016, the team at @NavigatorSurvey created a similar chart on it's post-election survey. There continues to be more people in the social conservative/economic liberal quadrant where the GOP continues to do well than the Acela social liberal, economic conservative quadrant. Though it appears there was more Biden-GOP ticket-splitting going on in the latter group.
Sep 16, 2020 10 tweets 4 min read
Latest @NavigatorSurvey out this AM: Three-fifths of voters think Trump has given up fighting coronavirus and just 39% say he's fighting hard to stop the spread. The public thinks Trump has given up on coronavirus even as half still say the "worst is yet to come" on the crisis and rates as the top priority for the federal government to be working on right now above other issues.
Aug 5, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read
Latest @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll out: Today's release hit an unfortunate milestone in that more than half of Americans (51%) now say they know someone who has been infected with coronavirus. It's taken some time, but the public has now largely concluded that the United States' response to the coronavirus is worse than most other countries in the world. 63% now say that, up from 57% in late June and 51% in mid-May.
May 27, 2020 10 tweets 4 min read
Week 10 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: The great mask debate of 2020 isn't much of a debate at all. A classic case of a silent majority. 74% of the country self-identifies themselves as "pro-mask" while just 18% say they are "anti-mask." Trump is out of step on masks as 65% disapprove of his not wearing masks, while just 27% approve. It's rare to see a 60%+ disapprove on any Trump metric because GOP voters typically hold strong for him. Voters also strongly support requiring elected officials to wear masks.
May 20, 2020 12 tweets 5 min read
Week 9 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: Trump approval for handling of pandemic at a new low, 40% approve/56% disapprove, with approval at 11% with Democrats, 32% with Independents, and 77% with Republicans. 47% report hearing mostly negative things about Trump's handling vs. 17% who say mostly positive (and 32% mixed). The negative conversation on Trump has been around reopening, testing, masks, ignoring experts. (NOTE: interviews completed before his hydroxychloroquine declaration)
May 9, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read
Day 35 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: Since hitting it's peak in early April, there has been a steady decline in the number of people who say "the worst is yet to come." However, in recent days, that number has started to tick back up as worry over a "second wave" is high. Coverage of mask-wearing is being covered like the new "culture war" -- just another blue vs. red divide. But something is different here as 2/3 of the country is wearing masks regularly. The divide is really within the GOP as roughly half of Republicans are and half aren't.
May 8, 2020 8 tweets 4 min read
Day 34 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: This is the first time since we started our daily tracking poll on March 23rd that all four of Trump's approval ratings below are in the red, including economic approval. Ratings of the economy remain sour, and relatively stable over the last few weeks, with 81% saying "not so good" or "poor" including 71% of Republicans (who were the latest movers on this metric).
Apr 30, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
Day 28 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: Negative impressions of Trump's press conferences go up after bleach comments. 56% have negative view, including 85% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 21% of Republicans. Overall, Trump approval on the pandemic remains low, so no doubt that the Trump temper-tantrums about his poll numbers that were reported yesterday are true.
Apr 25, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read
Day 25 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: After 5 weeks of polling during this crisis, Trump's job approval hit a new low in daily tracking -- 42% approve, 56% disapprove. As bad as he was in early March when he was downplaying the crisis. Slightly worse than pre-crisis levels. The trust gap between Trump and state/local government keeps growing. Just 28% of America trusts Trump more than their state and local governments.
Apr 23, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read
Day 23 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: Most Americans oppose declaring the country open soon: 67% oppose and 27% support. And if and when we do open, the public overwhelmingly (91%) supports a cautious reopening, where a handful of businesses reopen but most things stay closed The problem with a grand reopening without a plan to address the health problems is that most people won't comply. We asked what people would do if the country was "declared open in the next few weeks." The answer? 76% would "still spend almost all of my time in my home."
Apr 22, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
Day 22 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: The political fallout for the protests at state capitols lies squarely with those who are egging them on. The American people support the Governors’ stay-at-home orders by a landslide: 77% support them and just 14% support the protesters. And as the president shows blames, distracts, and sympathizes with those who are flaunting these widely supported guidelines, his approval rating on the pandemic continues to fall.
Apr 21, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
Day 21 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: Early in the crisis, the President's response was seen as "serious" by an unusually high portion of the public. That perception has steadily eroded over time, along with similar dips in those who see him as "presidential" and "competent" Trump's economic approval hit a new low in our daily tracking, with now even amounts of voters approving and disapproving.
Apr 18, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
Day 20 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: Trump now below 50% on all four approvals, the low points in our daily tracking across the four weeks we've been doing this. -12 overall, -13 on health care, -6 on pandemic. Below 50% on economy for 1st time. Trump's "liberate" tweets misreading public opinion completely. Yes, some people (26%), mostly Republicans, are saying the "worst is over." But just 10% say relax social distancing, making that a fringe position (and by the way, that 10% ≠ "storm your state capitol" either).
Apr 17, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read
Day 19 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: Trump's overall approval rating is back at pre-crisis levels. He's at 44% approve/54% disapprove in latest tracker which is a low in the the three weeks we've been doing this and where he was in January/February. The nation's Governors are maintaining soaring approval ratings for their handling of the crisis (70% across all Governors) while Trump moves under water on his coronavirus approval rating.
Apr 4, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read
Day 10 of @NavigatorSurvey tracking poll: At least one aspect of Trump's bubble has been punctured. 40% of Trump voters say he didn't take coronavirus seriously enough in the early days -- a figure that has been rising in recent days. 62% of Americans, including majorities across racial lines and even a majority of white non-college voters, say his downplaying of the threat early on raises "serious concerns" about his handling of the crisis.
Mar 30, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
To whom it may concern:
If you would like to see an actual polling bump for handling a crisis well, see this morning’s @SienaResearch poll of NY voters: Cuomo favorable bump:
Overall: 44% favorable in February->71% favorable now (+27)
Among Republicans: 20%->42% (+22)
Among Independents: 35%->68% (+33)
Among Democrats: 59%->87% (+28)
Mar 24, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read
1/? There has been a stark change is the public’s feelings about the economy. Just 30% now say it is in “excellent/good” shape — a big decline in just 2 weeks. 77% say we are in a recession or headed towards one. 2/ We looked at America’s top worries around this crisis. Americans thinking of their friends and loved ones, reporting their health as their greatest concern.
Jul 19, 2019 8 tweets 3 min read
You know how Trump’s approval on the economy runs ahead of his overall approval? At @NavigatorSurvey we took a six polls worth of data to look at the small group of voters who make up that difference. The results should concern the Trump campaign... 1/? navigatorresearch.org/conflicted-abo… First, this group wasn’t really with Trump to begin with — only 32% voted for him in 2016. Clinton won them by 7 and Democrats won them by 20 in 2018.
Jun 26, 2019 15 tweets 6 min read
1) A thread on some new polling I just presented in Miami for @USImmHUB on how Democrats can engage with voters on the issue immigration. Warning: long thread ahead but wanted to put this out there for folks to see. 2) Will start by saying I believe Democrats must engage on immigration in 2020. It is all Trump talks about. He cannot be the only voice and be allowed to define us. We also must talk about critical issues like health care and wages but we can’t let his nonsense go unanswered.
May 21, 2019 5 tweets 3 min read
1/ The GOP wants to make the debate about capitalism vs. socialism. But in doing so, they are exposing their biggest weakness: their support for an economic system that benefits a few, and fails regular people. New @NavigatorSurvey -- voters don't want capitalism without rules: @NavigatorSurvey 2/ Here's the clear way to beat the GOP's "the economy is great/everything is fine" argument. Note even 40% of people who think the economy is going well agree with the progressive side of the argument here: