Today @NatRecordsScot have released their first set of detailed mortality data for Scotland for a month.

Lots to unpick in here, but here's a few things I've noticed.

Firstly, deaths from all causes have been at the higher end of normal for a few weeks.
It *could be that this is just random noise - Scotland is a smaller country than England & Wales, so we'd expect the line to 'bounce around' a bit more. But 3 weeks is a bit of a coincidence, albeit it's not a long way above normal.
Some interesting age patterns - the 'bump' in recent weeks seems to be largely among 45-74 year olds.

It's also not likely to be anything to do with the heatwave-related mortality bump we've seen in England & Wales, since it's a good few weeks later. Also, Scotland is cold.
If we look at excess deaths by cause, it's clear that the recent bump isn't being driven by COVID-19 deaths. There doesn't seem to be any obvious pattern, though deaths from 'other' causes have been consistently above 'usual' levels for a few weeks.
If we look at *where* people in Scotland are dying, we see, in common with England & Wales, that deaths at home are well above historical levels.

It *looks* as though these are mostly displaced deaths from hospitals, but we can't be at all sure of that.
Finally, the really nice thing about this Scottish data is that we can look at deaths by cause *and* location.

So many interesting stories here. Hospital excess deaths were all COVID. Care homes excess deaths mostly COVID and demential/Alzhemiers.
It *looks* as though a key part of the story is a displacement of cancer deaths from hospital to home (although we don't know if they are actually the *same* deaths). For a long while it looked the same thing was happening with circulatory deaths, but seemingly not any longer.
It's also perhaps interesting that there have been a lot fewer respiratory deaths in hospital than usual, and these seemingly haven't shown up in other settings. But this 'deficit' has shrunk to almost nothing in recent weeks.
I'm not sure what this all tells us. The data probably invites at least as many questions as it answers, although those questions are at least more targeted. It's also not clear how much we'd expect the same things to be happening in the rest of the UK.

But it's fascinating
So all credit to @NatRecordsScot for publishing it, and I can't wait until we have some similar insight for the rest of the country.
Code for these various plots is here (1st plot):…
here (deaths by age):…
and here (deaths by cause/location):…

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More from @VictimOfMaths

2 Sep
This graph illustrates the madness of the current local lockdown restrictions across the UK.

Bolton, where restrictions were lifted this morning (against the wishes of the council) has the highest rate of new cases in the past week of anywhere in the UK.
Restrictions remain in place in Calderdale (14 cases/100,000 in the last week) but were relaxed last Wednesday in Rossendale (54 cases/100,000).
New restrictions were introduced today in West Dunbartonshire (25 cases/100,000), Glasgow City (20 cases/100,000) and East Renfrewshire (22 cases/100,000) while there are no restrictions in Corby (46 cases/100,000) or Belfast (41 cases/100,000).
Read 7 tweets
21 May
Since have very kindly compiled weekly all-cause deaths data for a bunch of countries, here is a plot of excess death *rates* by age group and country.

England & Wales a big outlier along w/ Spain, but *particularly* in 15-64 year olds.
Here's a version of that plot focusing on just 15-64 year olds.
And here's them all on top of each other, highlighting England & Wales in red and Scotland in blue.

As a smaller country, you'd expect more noise in the Scottish data, so although the peak looks similar to England, it's less unprecedented (if that makes sense).
Read 6 tweets
18 May
Since we're now allowed to venture a bit further from home on our bikes, here's a list of 25 *great* cycling climbs you might not have heard of in the Peak District (or nearby) to hopefully inspire your post-lockdown ride planning.
Firstly the rules:

Must not be in one of @100Climbs (excellent) books
Must be great
I must have ridden it as part of a ride from Sheffield

Bonus points for obscurity and unreasonable difficulty.

So here goes:
1) Hinderstitch Lane
1.3km 10.9% avg. 15.8% max

There are plenty of great climbs out of the Derwent valley around Crich, but I have a particular soft spot for this one - quiet, some great views, and it's hard from the start. Great name too!…
Read 33 tweets
12 May
New weekly all-cause deaths data from @ONS shows that deaths fell more sharply in the week to 1st May, but were still well above normal levels.
Deaths have fallen for both sexes, but the total number of excess deaths is still ~50% higher for men than women.
Relatively speaking, the fall is similar across all age groups, although older ages have much further to come down in absolute terms to get back to 'normal' levels.
Read 10 tweets
5 May
The latest all-cause death figures for the week ending 24th April have just been published by @ONS…

For the first time in the pandemic, all-cause deaths have gone down, but not by much. Image
This slight drop is evident in both sexes... Image
...and all age groups... Image
Read 7 tweets
9 Dec 19
This chart from @TheEconomist is outstanding, so I thought I'd have a go at replicating it for every election in my lifetime. #ge2019data…
Not a very clear picture in 1987 vs 1983. Labour constituencies got more Laboury, but not much else.
1992 saw a big sweep towards Labour, but not enough to take power.
Read 14 tweets

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