John Hayward Profile picture
16 Sep, 14 tweets, 3 min read
There's a lot of talk about the "Shy Trump" vote, especially since it's physically dangerous to express support for him many Democrat-controlled cities, but don't underestimate the Weary Biden vote - exhausted, frightened swing voters who will vote against Trump with a shrug.
People like that aren't going to have a big footprint on social media. They're more likely than the classic Shy Trump voter to be detected by pollsters, but many of them don't really want to answer polls. They might describe themselves as undecided if they do.
The Left looooves that "demoralize-destabilize-normalize" strategy because it WORKS. It's a huge advantage to be able to create conditions of chaos, despair, and destruction - helped along by a black swan event like the coronavirus - and blame it all on the incumbent.
Biden is largely getting away with hiding in his basement and taking a few (embarrasingly obviously) scripted questions from "reporters." The Weary Biden voter is thinking only about Donald Trump right now. 2020 is him vs. the ultimate Generic Democrat Candidate.
Weary Biden voters aren't going to engage on social media or get into fiery political arguments. They aren't really into Biden at all, so they don't know about his past positions, or those of Harris. They're trying very hard not to notice his senile dementia.
And really, Biden's deteriorating mental condition isn't a huge issue for these weary voters, certainly not the checkmate detail ardent Trump supporters imagine. They don't really care who the Generic Democrat Candidate is. They're thinking only about Trump.
And part of the reason for that is Trump's style, his rhetoric, his position as the center of attention in every story. Almost all of Trump's political deficits at the moment are due to things he SAID, and sketchy stories about things he didn't say but sound plausible enough.
The Weary Biden voter isn't very up-to-speed on what Trump has DONE. His campaign will have to work hard to remind them. They barely remember the good economic times lost over the event horizon of the coronavirus black hole.
Middle East peace is nice, but what does that mean to the weary swing voter's daily life? Terrorism stopped being a big story after Obama left, but they've been told not to credit Trump for that. All they're thinking about is riots, police brutality, and economic collapse.
The thing about these weary voters is that they don't want to sign up for more political warfare. They'll be told the path of least resistance is putting someone new - Biden, Harris, anonymous Democrat managers, whoever - in the Oval Office.
Tired people desire peace and normalization above all else, and they will rationalize themselves into thinking it's not surrender to thuggishness. They don't want to see themselves as submissives... so they won't. They'll just say they wanted to give someone else a chance.
The Trump campaign will have to work hard to get to those people. The Weary Biden vote might not be huge, might not even be as big as the Shy Trump vote, but it could be big enough to turn some crucial races. Trump underestimates it at his peril.
Despair is an incredibly powerful political force - it's the only reason socialism is still a thing - but it's also largely invisible in conversation. No one wants to admit their vote is driven by abject despair. They either hide it with performative anger, or they stay quiet.
Trump's style makes it easy for his adversaries to conceal despair with performative anger. Don't assume every quiet voter is itching to vote against the Abolish the Police Party. Some are resigned to that battle being over, and just want to make peace with the winners. /end

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More from @Doc_0

29 Sep
The coronavirus is clearly the issue that walloped Trump and made this a tight election. Remarkably, Joe Biden is still completely unable to articulate anything significant he would have done differently, or would do differently going forward.
That's not necessarily going to nullify the issue as a problem for Trump, although it might blunt the impact. Criticizing the other side only gets you so far, if you can't finish the thought by saying "... and here's what I would have done differently if I was in charge."
But the coronavirus is such a huge issue, with so many secondary crises spawning from it, that Trump would inevitably suffer just because he was in charge when it happened. The "Trump lied, people died" onslaught did real damage to him.
Read 17 tweets
28 Sep
Once the 48-hour media freakout subsides, the number of people genuinely outraged, or even surprised, by Trump's tax returns will be smaller than the number of people outraged that confidential tax information was stolen and leaked to the media.
The public would be wise to be more angry about the leaking of confidential information. If nothing in Trump's taxes is illegal, there's no real story there. The media will try to keep it alive by manufacturing secondary stories about reactions to the original story.
They'll lavishly quote performative outrage from Democrats or whip up "THE INTERNET IS ON FIRE ABOUT TRUMP'S TAXES!" stories that quote five tweets, but working Americans just won't see anything relevant to their lives or the big issues in the election.
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25 Sep
One reason we're suffering through so much turmoil right now is that for the Left, everything has to be a huge moralistic crusade exploited for maximum political gain. The System is always broken from coast to coast. The American people are always the root problem.
A given problem can never be a matter of individual judgment, especially if those individuals are Democrat politicians. The more Dems involved in the legislative and administrative process around the crisis, the more likely the Left will finger all Americans as the real culprits.
It can never be a matter of the rules being followed but leading to a bad outcome in a particular case. It can never, EVER be that a member of a preferred left-wing grievance group exercised bad judgement and created a bloody disaster.
Read 9 tweets
25 Sep
Imagine Democrats win in November. Fast forward to 2021. President Harris is pushing huge tax hikes, a welfare spending spree, a reparations bill. Think you'll be able to drive safely through a city while that's playing out?
When I warn that you'll get more terror tactics if the Dems pay no price at the ballot box for using them, I don't just mean "expect more street violence during the next close election." They'll use these tactics to subdue middle-class resistance for every major issue.
They need working Americans to feel helpless and terrified, afraid to organize or push back. That's how a minority of extremists uses political violence to force its agenda through. The middle class will be taught that submission is the price of peace.
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24 Sep
The "peaceful transfer of power" ship sailed with the Obama administration in 2016, kicking up a rooster tail as it roared out of the dock, but Republicans are still required to ritually proclaim that they will be good losers.
We're coming off a couple of months where the Democrat Party threatened America with violent riots if they lose, loudly announced it will not accept the results of the vote if Trump wins, and floated several plans to change election rules so they can never lose again.
But that's OK, because Democrats have absolutely no equivalent requirement to promise they will be good losers. The conversation is, in fact, rigged so that voters understand it's DANGEROUS for Democrats to lose. They will pay a price for defying the Party at the ballot box.
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23 Sep
Hi, this is the police, texting you one hour in advance under our new rules of engagement to let you know we'll be swinging by for a raid. If you feel like shooting at us, would you kindly ask unarmed residents of your home to clear your line of fire? Thanks in advance!
Hi, this is your 15-minute update on the upcoming raid. Quick reminder - we'll be knocking, ringing your doorbell, slipping a note under the door, and floating balloon animals outside your window to let you know we've arrived. Check the back of that note for a fun pizza coupon!
After your police raid is complete, we'll be sending you a brief survey so you can let us know how you enjoyed the experience. Be sure to indicate how many shots you fired, what caliber of bullet you used, and your preferred media narrative for how it was all our fault.
Read 5 tweets

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