There's a lot of talk about the "Shy Trump" vote, especially since it's physically dangerous to express support for him many Democrat-controlled cities, but don't underestimate the Weary Biden vote - exhausted, frightened swing voters who will vote against Trump with a shrug.
People like that aren't going to have a big footprint on social media. They're more likely than the classic Shy Trump voter to be detected by pollsters, but many of them don't really want to answer polls. They might describe themselves as undecided if they do.
The Left looooves that "demoralize-destabilize-normalize" strategy because it WORKS. It's a huge advantage to be able to create conditions of chaos, despair, and destruction - helped along by a black swan event like the coronavirus - and blame it all on the incumbent.
Biden is largely getting away with hiding in his basement and taking a few (embarrasingly obviously) scripted questions from "reporters." The Weary Biden voter is thinking only about Donald Trump right now. 2020 is him vs. the ultimate Generic Democrat Candidate.
Weary Biden voters aren't going to engage on social media or get into fiery political arguments. They aren't really into Biden at all, so they don't know about his past positions, or those of Harris. They're trying very hard not to notice his senile dementia.
And really, Biden's deteriorating mental condition isn't a huge issue for these weary voters, certainly not the checkmate detail ardent Trump supporters imagine. They don't really care who the Generic Democrat Candidate is. They're thinking only about Trump.
And part of the reason for that is Trump's style, his rhetoric, his position as the center of attention in every story. Almost all of Trump's political deficits at the moment are due to things he SAID, and sketchy stories about things he didn't say but sound plausible enough.
The Weary Biden voter isn't very up-to-speed on what Trump has DONE. His campaign will have to work hard to remind them. They barely remember the good economic times lost over the event horizon of the coronavirus black hole.
Middle East peace is nice, but what does that mean to the weary swing voter's daily life? Terrorism stopped being a big story after Obama left, but they've been told not to credit Trump for that. All they're thinking about is riots, police brutality, and economic collapse.
The thing about these weary voters is that they don't want to sign up for more political warfare. They'll be told the path of least resistance is putting someone new - Biden, Harris, anonymous Democrat managers, whoever - in the Oval Office.
Tired people desire peace and normalization above all else, and they will rationalize themselves into thinking it's not surrender to thuggishness. They don't want to see themselves as submissives... so they won't. They'll just say they wanted to give someone else a chance.
The Trump campaign will have to work hard to get to those people. The Weary Biden vote might not be huge, might not even be as big as the Shy Trump vote, but it could be big enough to turn some crucial races. Trump underestimates it at his peril.
Despair is an incredibly powerful political force - it's the only reason socialism is still a thing - but it's also largely invisible in conversation. No one wants to admit their vote is driven by abject despair. They either hide it with performative anger, or they stay quiet.
Trump's style makes it easy for his adversaries to conceal despair with performative anger. Don't assume every quiet voter is itching to vote against the Abolish the Police Party. Some are resigned to that battle being over, and just want to make peace with the winners. /end
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