Donald Schneider Profile picture
Sep 16, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Quick look at the 2019 census data:
Real median household income is up *61%* since 1967.
Incomes also up 14% since 2007, making this business cycle even better than the 1990s boom
Here it is by age group over the life cycle in 1979, 2000, and 2019
And by age since 1979. Even incomes for young households up 8% since 2007
Here's nominal year over year growth in median HH income vs the unemployment rate (inverted) obviously showing a strong relationship between the two
Smaller gains for men working full time but again, their best business cycle yet (up 6% in real terms since 2007 peak)

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More from @DonFSchneider

May 20, 2021
First, real hourly wages for the average worker are at an all time high.
Second, If we are actually interested in answering this question we'd look at how much output per hour a worker produces relative to what their comp. is per hour. /THREAD
Image
We want to look at real net productivity (output less depreciation per hour) relative to real compensation per hour (pay) using output prices. We are interested in whether workers are paid for what they produce - not whether they are paid for what they consume. Here's that chart Image
Given that productivity is output per hour and pay is output per hour if we strip out the denominators we can answer this same question by looking at cumulative changes in the labor share. That's been flat over time (ie no spread between avg. pay and productivity) Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 29, 2021
I appreciate @oren_cass taking time to respond to me. I find his response unpersuasive for reasons I lay out below.
First, I don't have a strong view on what is going on with investment (good/bad). I've conducted my own lit review of sorts and found the literature really conflicting, with many compelling theories & measures of investment to assess them by. No good definitive answers.
However, I do have an issue with Oren flatly asserting causality for his viewpoint without rejecting or even discussing plausible alternatives in the literature. On to the substance of his responses...
Read 10 tweets
Mar 27, 2021
There’s a lot to digest in this @oren_cass piece but I want to start with his diagnosis of the problem – that there is a concerning decline in business investment. I am not so sure about that and his analysis is missing one big factor. THREAD
This is the headline chart that we are supposed to be concerned about - the evidence that wall street is wreaking havoc on the economy by sucking investment out of the private sector. A decline in *net* investment "from 4.1% in the 1970s and 80s to 2.5% in the 2010s" Image
Net nonresidential (or business) investment is indeed the right measure to focus on. We are concerned with new investment less depreciation (the cost of servicing that investment). So let's focus on what's going on with *net* investment for a bit...
Read 22 tweets
Jan 18, 2021
THREAD/ some thoughts on why I'm skeptical of the net lending (savings & investment imbalance) / corporate savings glut / 'financializaiton" discussion as it pertains to the decline of biz investment 1/n
Whether it's Summers talking about secular stagnation, many great economists exploring a corporate savings glut or Marco Rubio arguing that we're seeing the "financialization" of the economy theres a suggestion of a big savings / investment imbalance
Basically, it posits that a declining labor share begat rising profits and saving… and without investment it begat a net lending corporate sector. Rubio has even claimed that we are in the midst of a disorder in the institutional arrangement of the American economy"
Read 15 tweets
Oct 6, 2020
THREAD/ some thoughts on Dr. Furman's column about former VP Biden's tax plan... in the order in which they arise 1/N
Furman makes the point that the corporate rate cut is only half reversed. True. But the rate is being raised on a broader base b/c of TCJA... which cut taxes on corps by ~$330bn over a decade. Biden's 3 biggest provisions will raise corp taxes by *$1.5 trillion*
On the assertion that the growth effex of the tax plan are negligible: These are both high quality models but a shortcoming is that they are mostly driven by crowding out effects - which isnt relevant right now. And b/c the plan is scored in isolation as deficit reduction...
Read 9 tweets
Sep 9, 2020
THREAD/
Good news: using a new(ish) measure of the labor share that Rognlie deems "the best measure," pay and productivity are growing together.

Bad news: there's a much bigger puzzle than supposed decline of the labor share
In an overlooked comment here ( mattrognlie.com/kn_comment_rog… ) Rognlie reviews common biases in measuring labor share and comes up with a preferred measure that addresses them: "the net labor share of domestic corporate factor income"
I take his definition and update it (using the nonfinancial corporate sector - more on that later). It has hovered between 74% and 84% since 1947 and now sits above historical average at 80%. In Rognlie's words "there is no postwar trend in the net corporate labor share"
Read 14 tweets

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