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Donald Schneider Profile picture
Donald Schneider
@DonFSchneider
Deputy Head of US Policy at Piper Sandler. Tweets on public policy and the economy. Formerly Chief Economist @waysandmeansgop. Personal views only.
May 29 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
To be clear I am the source of the chart and I will link to the thread below to explain how I arrived at it given that JCT has not released a distributional analysis of OBBB without TCJA Here is the thread, note I try to express some humility/doubts about accuracy given that we do not have final table from JCT on this. I am subtracting TCJA distributional table from the OBBB table
Dec 30, 2024 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
B/c there is a lot of confusion on debt limit mechanics & law I will have a 🧵here.
First, using deficit consistent w/ CBO baseline adjusted for disaster relief & primary dealer median SOMA expectations, we'd exhaust EM and have X date in early August. Image On Jan 2 the debt limit will be reinstated. Treasury is targeting $700 billion in cash on hand on that day as laid out in QRA documents
home.treasury.gov/system/files/1…Image
May 20, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
First, real hourly wages for the average worker are at an all time high.
Second, If we are actually interested in answering this question we'd look at how much output per hour a worker produces relative to what their comp. is per hour. /THREAD
Image We want to look at real net productivity (output less depreciation per hour) relative to real compensation per hour (pay) using output prices. We are interested in whether workers are paid for what they produce - not whether they are paid for what they consume. Here's that chart Image
Mar 29, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
I appreciate @oren_cass taking time to respond to me. I find his response unpersuasive for reasons I lay out below.
First, I don't have a strong view on what is going on with investment (good/bad). I've conducted my own lit review of sorts and found the literature really conflicting, with many compelling theories & measures of investment to assess them by. No good definitive answers.
Mar 27, 2021 • 22 tweets • 9 min read
There’s a lot to digest in this @oren_cass piece but I want to start with his diagnosis of the problem – that there is a concerning decline in business investment. I am not so sure about that and his analysis is missing one big factor. THREAD
This is the headline chart that we are supposed to be concerned about - the evidence that wall street is wreaking havoc on the economy by sucking investment out of the private sector. A decline in *net* investment "from 4.1% in the 1970s and 80s to 2.5% in the 2010s" Image
Jan 18, 2021 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
THREAD/ some thoughts on why I'm skeptical of the net lending (savings & investment imbalance) / corporate savings glut / 'financializaiton" discussion as it pertains to the decline of biz investment 1/n Whether it's Summers talking about secular stagnation, many great economists exploring a corporate savings glut or Marco Rubio arguing that we're seeing the "financialization" of the economy theres a suggestion of a big savings / investment imbalance
Oct 6, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
THREAD/ some thoughts on Dr. Furman's column about former VP Biden's tax plan... in the order in which they arise 1/N
Furman makes the point that the corporate rate cut is only half reversed. True. But the rate is being raised on a broader base b/c of TCJA... which cut taxes on corps by ~$330bn over a decade. Biden's 3 biggest provisions will raise corp taxes by *$1.5 trillion*
Sep 16, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Quick look at the 2019 census data:
Real median household income is up *61%* since 1967.
Incomes also up 14% since 2007, making this business cycle even better than the 1990s boom Here it is by age group over the life cycle in 1979, 2000, and 2019
Sep 9, 2020 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
THREAD/
Good news: using a new(ish) measure of the labor share that Rognlie deems "the best measure," pay and productivity are growing together.

Bad news: there's a much bigger puzzle than supposed decline of the labor share In an overlooked comment here ( mattrognlie.com/kn_comment_rog… ) Rognlie reviews common biases in measuring labor share and comes up with a preferred measure that addresses them: "the net labor share of domestic corporate factor income"