@LaurenceBettle There is a self delusion in Western logical thought that is completely disabling. To investigate and adjudicate requires the assumption that all parties are or can be compelled to investigate. This is false. China has already shown its desire to coverup the origin facts.
1/
@LaurenceBettle China failed to disclose human to human transmission, have steadfastly failed to meet treaty obligations, and so on. In such cases we must revert to a different standard of judgment acting with caution. When not allowed to see the evidence we must not assume innocence.
2/
@LaurenceBettle We can not pronounce in the Western press that these are unfounded theories, instead we must act that there is the possibility they are the truth. It is simply not prudent, where international investigations are blocked, to assume that others are innocent until proven guilty.
3/
@LaurenceBettle I am not declaring China guilty but I do subscribe to Ronald Reagan’s postulated thesis, “Trust but verify.” And it’s corollary, “If you cannot verify, do not trust.” The application of concepts of the Western jurisprudence process simply do not apply, and are dangerous.
/end

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More from @letsthinkdeeply

23 Sep
@C1aranMurray @LaurenceBettle The issues on tests; sloppy language often misconstrues their use and value. Data, all data, is good. Misuse and misunderstanding can be very bad.
First, this curve: Image
@C1aranMurray @LaurenceBettle The disease has two distinct phases with serious disease, this is well known, now. What is less understood is whether there are meaningful long term issues, we do not have objective long term data yet.
@C1aranMurray @LaurenceBettle Then this curve: Image
Read 11 tweets
19 Sep
The problem with our political debate:
- democracy is belief agnostic, it creates a check on arbitrary exercise of power.
- capitalism is agnostic, it creates a more efficient platform for economic growth.
- freedom is agnostic, it allows people to do as they choose.
1/
We conflate many other things together, but these are different choices:
- are we responsible,
- are we moral,
- are we fair and just, and
- are the excesses of each system in proper balance?
2/
These are where a society debates, protests, and considers the restrictions we will place on our systems to maintain balance. But now we have a cultural breakdown in what we consider responsible, moral, fair and just. And many no longer believe in our founding principals.
3/
Read 6 tweets
18 Sep
@gummibear737 @EthicalSkeptic @Covid19Crusher @Hold2LLC @federicolois there is a group of math, modeling, statistics and data analyst experts that are tracking this epidemic. We devote significant effort to rationalizing the discussion by politicians, press and professionals.
1/
We have widely varying medical backgrounds but always test their unhinged reactions, look at them simply, our comments fall into a number of categories:
1) calling out modeling errors,
2) calling out statistical errors,
3) finding patterns that do not agree with them, and

2/
4) offer experience based advice informed by what we see in other work.
We also, dig much deeper into mechanisms of action and the logic of their conclusions. These cause the strongest reactions. But always remember, the math is the math, and the data is the data.
3/
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep
By the way, from my friend @EthicalSkeptic

Broken Window Parable (Bastiat Fallacy) – actually a counter to the broken window parable which proposes that even in disaster, an economy profits on the repair and recovery.
1/
The Bastiat Fallacy points out the logical failure of such reasoning.  Proposed by Nineteen Century French economist Frederic Bastiat, the fallacy states that the economic benefit derived from recovering from disaster is never superior to the economic benefit......
...... which was lost as opportunity cost, as a result of sacrificing the resources sacrificed in the disaster, nor committed to repair the damage or fix the disaster. The economic benefit of war is never compared to what was lost as a result of the war.
3/
Read 8 tweets
10 Sep
We incur a lot of blowback when we get too out ahead of the “known” mechanisms. It is clear that the epidemiological curves show decay of the pandemic. There are still many “possible” causes:
1/
1) herd immunity due to: cross immunity, asymmetry in transmission pathways, significant undercounting of viral spread, and others.
2) the precise mechanism needs to be studied and definitively understood.
2/
3) if it is from social distancing and or masks, loosening will increase infections. But if the increased infections are among the young there will be very very few increased deaths.
3/
Read 7 tweets
9 Sep
@stuartbuck1 @StevePhillipsMD Stuart, this appears to be a well run study but there are concerns:
1) This deals with morbidity amongst those confirmed to have contracted the disease, not whether it prevented infection. Depending on criteria for testing in the UK this could be a very large gap.
1/
@stuartbuck1 @StevePhillipsMD It certainly does not robustly examine prevention of infection. It does examine mortality, which is important and may be correlated with infection.
2/
@stuartbuck1 @StevePhillipsMD 2) The criteria for use of HCQ was two or more prescriptions over a 6 month period but there is no data on dosage or current status of treatment at the time of symptom onset. This would not allow specific differentiation of effects of treatment being current at time of onset.
3/
Read 8 tweets

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