Thread by @d_jaishankar

🚨 My new paper for @LowyInstitute on India-Australia security relations. 🚨 lowyinstitute.org/publications/a…

This paper has been some years in the making, and benefited considerably from 4 visits to Australia between 2016 & 2019 (thanks to @PerthUSAsia @NSC_ANU @LowyInstitute) as well as informative interactions with both Australian and Indian defence officials. A few highlights below:

Strategic relations between India & Australia were modest between 1944 and 2000, due to:

1. Cold War (and 🇦🇺 🇵🇰 ties)
2. India's nuclear programme
3. Weak social links
4. Weak economic and trade relations

Beyond overcoming these four obstacles in the 1990s and 2000s, the new drivers of cooperation included:

1. China's rise and assertiveness
2. Concern about inadequate regional institutions
3. Concerns about U.S. capabilities and presence

The first phase of this new relationship (2000-2006) saw:

2000: Defence talks, PM Howard visit
2001: Foreign ministry + strategic dialogue
2003: Australian observers at Milan
2003-06: Port calls
2004-06: Service chiefs visits
2004: Tsunami cooperation

The second phase (2006-2014) saw:

2006: MoU on Defence Cooperation
2007: Agreement on classified information
2007: Quad dialogue
2007: Malabar 07-02
2009: Strategic partnership
2011: CECA talks start
2012: Civil nuclear talks
2013: AK Antony visit
2014: Australia at Milan

The third phase (2014-onwards) had:

2014: Security cooperation agreement
2015: 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵, coast guard talks, AUSINDEX, civil nuclear deal
2016: DRDO talks, White Shipping Agreement
2017: Quad, AUSINDEX, 2+2, 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇮🇩
2019: Ministerial Quad
2020: Ministerial 2+2, MLSA, cyber, 🇦🇺🇫🇷🇮🇳

Today, 🇮🇳🇦🇺 defence ties feature:

1. Strategic dialogues, coordination, and intelligence exchanges, including 3rd countries.
2. Military exercises involving all 3 services.
3. Mil-mil exchanges and training.
4. Defence technological cooperation.

All are still in early stages.

Challenges remain, including:

1. Aligning capabilities
2. Different priorities
3. Contrasting strategic circumstances

None of these are necessarily insurmountable, although they remain drags on the relationship.

Priorities ahead could include:

1. Institutionalising and prioritising consultations.
2. Improving interoperability.
3. Defence trade and tech (e.g. protected mobility vehicles, undersea sensors, radar, simulators, aircraft/sub components, etc.)
4. Broadening relations

Thanks to many people who provided inputs, encouragement, and assistance: @AlexKOliver @SamRoggeveen @mfullilove @arzandc @nidvarma @Rory_Medcalf @lgflake & Geoffrey Flugge. It draws on important work by @DavidBrewster6 @Rory_Medcalf, @amitabhmattoo, Priya Chacko, Meg Gurry, etc.

P.S. It tells you much about the spurt of activity in this period that I overlooked some significant exercises (AustraHind, Pitch Black, Kakadu, Black Carillon) and the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative.

https://twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1306262123316760577