🚨 My new paper for @LowyInstitute on India-Australia security relations. 🚨 lowyinstitute.org/publications/a…
This paper has been some years in the making, and benefited considerably from 4 visits to Australia between 2016 & 2019 (thanks to @PerthUSAsia @NSC_ANU @LowyInstitute) as well as informative interactions with both Australian and Indian defence officials. A few highlights below:
Strategic relations between India & Australia were modest between 1944 and 2000, due to:

1. Cold War (and 🇦🇺 🇵🇰 ties)
2. India's nuclear programme
3. Weak social links
4. Weak economic and trade relations
Beyond overcoming these four obstacles in the 1990s and 2000s, the new drivers of cooperation included:

1. China's rise and assertiveness
2. Concern about inadequate regional institutions
3. Concerns about U.S. capabilities and presence
The first phase of this new relationship (2000-2006) saw:

2000: Defence talks, PM Howard visit
2001: Foreign ministry + strategic dialogue
2003: Australian observers at Milan
2003-06: Port calls
2004-06: Service chiefs visits
2004: Tsunami cooperation
The second phase (2006-2014) saw:

2006: MoU on Defence Cooperation
2007: Agreement on classified information
2007: Quad dialogue
2007: Malabar 07-02
2009: Strategic partnership
2011: CECA talks start
2012: Civil nuclear talks
2013: AK Antony visit
2014: Australia at Milan
The third phase (2014-onwards) had:

2014: Security cooperation agreement
2015: 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵, coast guard talks, AUSINDEX, civil nuclear deal
2016: DRDO talks, White Shipping Agreement
2017: Quad, AUSINDEX, 2+2, 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇮🇩
2019: Ministerial Quad
2020: Ministerial 2+2, MLSA, cyber, 🇦🇺🇫🇷🇮🇳
Today, 🇮🇳🇦🇺 defence ties feature:

1. Strategic dialogues, coordination, and intelligence exchanges, including 3rd countries.
2. Military exercises involving all 3 services.
3. Mil-mil exchanges and training.
4. Defence technological cooperation.

All are still in early stages.
Challenges remain, including:

1. Aligning capabilities
2. Different priorities
3. Contrasting strategic circumstances

None of these are necessarily insurmountable, although they remain drags on the relationship.
Priorities ahead could include:

1. Institutionalising and prioritising consultations.
2. Improving interoperability.
3. Defence trade and tech (e.g. protected mobility vehicles, undersea sensors, radar, simulators, aircraft/sub components, etc.)
4. Broadening relations
Thanks to many people who provided inputs, encouragement, and assistance: @AlexKOliver @SamRoggeveen @mfullilove @arzandc @nidvarma @Rory_Medcalf @lgflake & Geoffrey Flugge. It draws on important work by @DavidBrewster6 @Rory_Medcalf, @amitabhmattoo, Priya Chacko, Meg Gurry, etc.
P.S. It tells you much about the spurt of activity in this period that I overlooked some significant exercises (AustraHind, Pitch Black, Kakadu, Black Carillon) and the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dhruva Jaishankar

Dhruva Jaishankar Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @d_jaishankar

28 Aug
With NHK + Kyodo confirming that Shinzo Abe is stepping down as Japan's prime minister, a thread on at least one aspect of his legacy: Japan's military normalization. A lot of the focus will be on his tenure (almost 9 years), the longest of any Japanese prime minister.
Also, how he loosened up Japanese politics. This thread by @observingjapan is wonderful.
But the revolution Abe brought about in Japan's role as a security actor is remarkable. Consider that when he first became prime minister in 2006, Japan did not have a Defence Ministry. In 2007, the Defence Agency (Boei-cho) was upgraded to a Defence Ministry (Boei-sho).
Read 13 tweets
15 Aug
Joe Biden's message on 🇮🇳 Independence Day. As president, “I’ll continue…standing with India" to confront challenges in its regions and "its borders". Hopes to work with India on two way trade, climate change, and have an honest conversation on all issues as close friends.
Biden mentions "special bond" between countries, Kamala Harris's journey beginning India, large number of Indian-Americans in Obama-Biden administration, and difficulties caused by current administration's H-1B visa policy.
Kamala Harris discusses her mother coming to California, her grandfather explaining to her the importance of Indian independence movement, and mentions her "love of good idli."

"We share a set of values...overcoming a colonial past."
Read 12 tweets
9 Jul
Important read from Chinese scholar Yuan Peng of CICIR: "The world during and after the pandemic is like the world after WWI..But just like Britain in the post-WWI period, the [U.S.] still has enough power to prevent other countries from taking her place." readingthechinadream.com/yuan-peng-coro…
"America’s China policy will only get increasingly hyper-sensitive, unyielding, and arrogant as they double down on containment and suppression. Strategic competition between China and the US will become all the more fierce."
"The impact of China, the United States and Russia on international politics will be enhanced, and their interactions will be crucial to reshaping the future order. The strategic autonomy of Europe, Japan, and India may be somewhat strengthened in these new circumstances."
Read 11 tweets
21 Jun
A short THREAD on Indian opinions about China, based on two recent surveys I was involved in.

A lot of commentary still mentions Indian ambivalence about competition with China, but that's not necessarily reflected in recent opinion surveys.
A couple of points to begin.

One, survey data about foreign affairs in India is limited. Pew, Gallup, and several others (including embassies) do conduct polls, but due to the high cost and high rates of 'no opinion' answers, they're not as numerous as one might expect.
Two, when I post survey data on Twitter, an inevitable response is "how significant is a few hundred or few thousand person sample in a country of over a billion."

To preempt such responses, let me just say: quite significant.

Here's a good explainer: online.stat.psu.edu/stat100/lesson…
Read 14 tweets
14 Jun
A little off-brand thread this Sunday: 10 Lessons from reading all 56 Sherlock Holmes short stories.
Background: A lot of people have used their lockdowns to catch up on fiction, but I've honestly not had time between work and childcare. So every night as I put the kids to sleep, I read one Sherlock Holmes short story by Arthur Conan Doyle. In 56 days, I read all 56 of them.
Lesson 1 (Scandal in Bohemia): "It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has his data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."
Read 19 tweets
28 May
By popular demand, here is a thread of links to informative analyses about what is going on in the India-China border region.

Much of what follows should be seen as useful background or context, to be read with the caveats I outlined previously:

This interview with Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary and Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board. timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/chinese-… ImageImage
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!