I think it's a combination. What I'd like to see more of is analysis of the broader dynamics that led to this agreement, as well as its short- and long-term strategic implications, as opposed to the strictly short-term US political angle that always seems to dominate.
As I've said, the Gulf Arab states have been inching towards a rapprochement with Israel for some time, led by a) the increasing marginalization of the Palestinian issue, and b) their shared antagonism with Iran.
The US Iraq invasion and the Arab Spring capped off a transformation in which the traditional Arab powers in the Middle East - the population-heavy centers of Egypt, Syria, and Iraq - have been eclipsed by the smaller oil-rich Gulf states and a resurgent Turkey.
Those traditional powers once could draw on their populations to field large conscripted militaries, on a Soviet model. Now they are dominated - and torn apart - by smaller richer states that can buy more modern high-tech militaries as well as proxy factions to sponsor.
Israel has deftly capitalized on the split between the PLO and Hamas to render the Palestinians increasingly irrelevant and isolated on the world stage. The new Arab powers quietly see the Palestinians as a strategic liability, not an asset.
That may not be a popular view on the Arab street, but unlike the old Arab powers, who relied on populism to bolster their power and legitimacy, the new Arab powers rely mainly on money, while co-opting and quieting public opinion.
Where does the US fit into this? Most players - except Iran - see the US as a useful, if sometimes unpredictable, provider of a security umbrella under which they can maneuver for greater influence in this landscape, without risking everything.
That won't stop any of them for courting China for whatever it has to offer. China used to be totally irrelevant, but now is their biggest customer, though unlike the US it still lacks the capacity to project real military power into the region - constructively or destructively.
I'm no Middle East expert, far from it, but I have spent the past few years traveling a great deal throughout the region. These are the dynamics I've witnessed, and I think they make far more interesting discussion than whether Trump deserves credit or not for a diplomatic coup.
There is a tendency in US politics - and in the Trump Admin in particular - to see all international developments as "deus ex machina" with the "deus" being the actions of the US President. Without dismissing the importance of US policy, this tends to blind us to crucial context.
For instance, much of the current China debate seems to operate on the notion that the US had, at some point in the recent past, a kind of veto power over China's economic rise. And that "allowing" China's economic development was a foolish mistake.
But in my view, the US never had such a choice. What it did have were more complex choices about how it would interact and cope with a China that would largely decide whether it prospered or not, and what that would mean, depending on its own choices.
One could argue that the "fatal" flaw of US policy in the Middle East, in recent years, wasn't that it didn't have interests worth defending, or threats it had to respond to, but that it imagined the way of doing so was to "remake" the Middle East in a way well beyond its grasp.
As a result, the US did contribute to a reshaping of the Middle East, but not in the ways it necessarily intended, and not with the uncomplicated benefits (democracy and security) it had imagined.
To appreciate how much the Middle East has changed, by the way, consider the following:

In the 1970s, the Arab world's banking center was Beirut, and its media center was Cairo.

Today, its banking center is Dubai, and its media center is Doha.
That's a significant and notable shift in center of gravity, and it would be surprising if it did not have all sort of implications for the region's balance of power, including Israeli-Arab relations.

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More from @prchovanec

19 Sep
1. What I'm about to say doesn't depend on who is President, or which party controls the Senate.
2. The President serves a 4 year term, not a 3 or 3.5 year term, and he has the power to make nominations until the day that term ends.
3. The Senate's advise and consent role, in approving or rejecting nominations, is real, and may be exercised, through either action or inaction, at its discretion.
Read 23 tweets
10 Sep
1. I bet you need a distraction today. So do I. So here's my unfolding, in progress campaign in the new PC strategy game "Crusader Kings III". I'm playing as Count Roger of Messina, who in real life founded the Norman Kingdom of Sicily. Image
2. Things start off in September 1066. Roger is one of a gaggle of Norman freebooting adventurers who have carved out domains in the former Byzantine provinces of southern Italy. Each of these territories is a "county", and the Norman-controlled areas are outlined in blue. Image
3. Roger controls three counties, outlined in white: Messina (his capital), Reggio Calabria, and Cosenza. He is calm, just, and chaste, and most importantly is an excellent military leader, with a special bent for fighting holy wars against "infidels". Image
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28 Aug
2016: Only I can fix it. It will be so easy.

2020: It's China's fault. Who could have known it would be so hard?
2016: I will hire all the best people.

2020: Don't listen to the people who used to work for me, they're all idiots, liars, and losers.
2016: These trade deals are the worst deals ever.

2020: I renamed them. Now they are the best deals ever.
Read 7 tweets
5 Aug
I have been thinking on this, and I can't see how the world can hold the Olympics in a country that is doing this.

If the US boycotts alone it will be taken merely as a swipe from a rival. What it needs to do is organize a much broader boycott to put pressure on China.
China is very sensitive about its prestige, and the risk of a broad coalition of nations embarrassing it in this way could make a difference.
By the way, the attitude of reluctance in my initial tweet is not only genuine, it's very important. China will want to say its critics are merely seeking a pretext to embarrass it. No. To the contrary, they must be seeking a reason NOT to embarrass it - but not finding one.
Read 7 tweets
2 Aug
The US had +1,123 new coronavirus deaths today, bringing the total to 157,898. Because this was higher than last Saturday, the 7-day moving average continued to rise.
The US had +58,429 new confirmed coronavirus cases today, bringing the total to 4,764,318, and pushing the 7-day moving average down below 64k/day.
Florida had >9k new cases today
California had >7k
Texas had >6k
Georgia had >3k
Arizona and Tennessee had >2k each
Eight other states (IL, AL, SC, NC, OK, MS, WI, MD) had >1k each
Read 8 tweets
30 Jul
US GDP shrank at an annualized q/q rate of -32.9% in Q2, much as expected. This equates to an actual -9.5% q/q decline from Q1 to Q2, and a -9.5% y/y decline from 2Q19.
The composition of US GDP growth in Q2 was: -32.9 = -25.1 consumption -3.6 business investment -1.8 housing -4.0 inventories +0.8 government spending +0.7 net exports
The biggest factor was a collapse in household consumption, due to shutdowns and (possibly) unemployment, which fell at an annual rate of -34.6% (down from -4.9% in Q1), and shaved -25.1 points from GDP growth.
Read 15 tweets

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