David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Sep 16, 2020 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I wonder if anyone in the UK government has realised that Brexit and its impact is an existential issue for the Republic of Ireland? Not a pretend one, to be tossed around for a short term political win, but a crisis largely uniting the country in the need for action.
For four years the successive UK governments have suggested the EU and US should prioritise the UK over Ireland. For four years the Irish government has worked at full tilt to stop that happening, and has succeeded. And still the UK try, and still they fail.
The UK government has also managed during this time to alienate in different ways Northern Ireland communities to the extent that any claim to be motivated by the Good Friday Agreement rather than selfish London interests rings entirely hollow.
This tops it all for the UK attitude to Ireland. A Foreign Secretary looking forward to explaining why the EU and by extension Ireland is wrong over Brexit. They're not always big fans of the EU in DC, but that doesn't apply to Ireland. Unbelievable.
We get the domestic optics, the need to stand up to the EU. But there are ways to do that without damaging your international reputation. Because unless we come to sustainable terms with Ireland those EU and US trade deals don't happen. The CPTPP doesn't make up for that.
Playing the border games again, those insinuations that Ireland should be forced to put up infrastructure, does the government have any idea how destabilising this is across the whole of Ireland, and if they do, how come they don't care?
I preferred the all-UK backstop to the Northern Ireland protocol because it seemed to me the latter carried more risk to the Good Friday Agreement. But I'm quite sure it can be made to work if handled sensitively. Which is precisely what we haven't been doing.
I know there are folk inside the UK and Ireland governments, parliaments, EU and the Northern Ireland assembly and government, who get all of the sensitivities. It is time they were the voices heard, not those who use the language of conflict. We can but hope. /end

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More from @DavidHenigUK

Jan 31
I see we're predicted to be back in the realms today of hurrying through Parliament another Brexit change without debate just to show we haven't really learnt anything, but from the tail end of yesterday's thread here's some of what I'm expecting on Northern Ireland, plus...
There are briefings that either / both - new EU law will no longer automatically be applied in Northern Ireland (it never was) / the UK will agree not to diverge from relevant EU law to avoid UK divergence (wouldn't necessarily remove SPS checks but will keep UK alignment).
As with the Windsor Framework and before, expect an enormous amount of spin that will mostly be reported without challenge, and a handful of us unfortunate enough to read it all (@Usherwood and @JP_Biz are usually good bets in that department).
Read 21 tweets
Jan 30
And the morning news is a deal over Northern Ireland and Brexit. But... this statement isn't true under the Windsor Framework. Even if the UK government decide to align food and drink regulations with the EU. So is this really all settled? theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
Image
Now under the Windsor Framework entry checks to Northern Ireland were reduced. But these are not eliminated by UK alignment. Possibly the DUP has finally decided to agree that these are not so different to those of pre-2016. But equally, be wary of false promises unravelling.
Obviously good news for Northern Ireland if Stormont returns. As long as that can be sustained. That's going to quite possibly mean a lot more days like yesterday, because the issues around Brexit aren't going away given Northern Ireland is the entry point to the single market.
Read 22 tweets
Jan 25
UK trade news! Canada have proved persistently tough negotiating partners for the UK, and this comes as little surprise. The existing replica of the EU agreement is presumed to hold for now, but must also raise a question on CPTPP ratification.
Worth noting that UK refusal to change food standards has been an issue for Canada, while UK access to dairy is an inevitable issue the other way. But still a blow to the government's trade story.
At this stage we have no update on Canada's approach to making tea...
Read 7 tweets
Jan 19
Good piece on Northern Ireland. Clearly the DUP take some blame for refusing to return to Stormont. But their position is pretty predictable, and the UK government has consistently failed in efforts to change that, digging the hole deeper as they go. politico.eu/article/no-gov…
Doesn't seem like the government ever had a Plan B for the entirely predictable (and widely predicted) situation in which the DUP rejected the Windsor Framework. They were so confident that they had negotiated brilliantly (heard someone involved bragging exactly this).
Can't help thinking I've heard this before (and yesterday's version was there wouldn't be any agreement for a long time), but let's see if the DUP are prepared to suddenly fold on their stated reasons for not being in Stormont...
Read 5 tweets
Jan 19
To be clear because I've read this twice already today, a UK-EU SPS agreement would almost certainly NOT remove all barriers to trade in food and drink products.

It could ease some of them. But that difference between the single market and lesser arrangements will remain.
Thing is, loose talk in the UK on EU deals has consequences, because when the Commission read that the UK is going to remove all food and drink barriers while staying out of the single market they think "unacceptable cherry picking / they haven't learnt anything".
There's a realistic UK-EU SPS deal to be had based on substantive but not dynamic regulatory alignment in which trade barriers are lowered but not removed but even this will be a tough negotiation requiring a lot of mutual understanding and could easily fail.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 1
Two major challenges for Europe including the UK in 2024, and two huge distractions. The issues that should but probably won't be discussed in elections...
First challenge, geopolitics, where does Europe stand, who are our friends? What do we think of countries that bomb their neighbours, of others that support or facilitate that, what any more are our values? Very hard right now to see any coherent vision.
Second challenge, sustainable growth. Particularly given ageing populations there seem few obvious solutions to return to pre-2008 levels still less 1950 to 1970 style. But we need strong economies to pay for our expectations, and prevent populist solutions we know are damaging.
Read 6 tweets

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