Breaking @QuinnipiacPoll in #SCSEN:

Lindsey Graham (R) 48%
Jaime Harrison (D) 48%
Breaking @QuinnipiacPoll in #MESEN

Sara Gideon (D) 54%
Susan Collins (R) 42%
Breaking @QuinnipiacPoll in #KYSEN

Mitch McConnell (R) 53%
Amy McGrath (D) 41%
Let's see which one of these gets the most likes...guessing #KYSEN.

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More from @Redistrict

22 Sep
Fact: 11 of Texas's 254 counties contain Whole Foods Markets...

In 1992, these 11 counties cast 55% of TX's votes and gave Bill Clinton 48% of the two-party vote.

In 2016, they cast 59% and gave Hillary Clinton 54%. In 2018, they cast 61% and gave Beto O'Rourke 58%.

2020: ??
In case you're wondering, the 11 "Whole Foods counties" are:

Bexar
Collin
Dallas
Denton
El Paso
Fort Bend
Harris
Montgomery
Tarrant
Travis
Williamson
In case you're wondering why this is relevant...Republicans ended up losing all 12 of these congressional districts in 2018:
Read 4 tweets
19 Sep
Another (brief) thread: at the rate 2020 is going, here's how the rest of the year is probably going to play out...
1. Trump nominates a conservative woman to SCOTUS before the election and McConnell holds a vote at some point before December, w/ Pence breaking a 50-50 tie to confirm.
2. Biden comfortably wins the popular vote by 4-5 million, holds all 20 Clinton states and flips #NE02, Michigan, and Arizona (where Kelly beats McSally). But Trump narrowly carries Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Texas and Georgia.

The race hinges on Pennsylvania.
Read 8 tweets
19 Sep
I've heard some analysts argue a SCOTUS fight will help Trump by shifting "what 2020 will be about" from his mismanagement of COVID to a more straightforward partisan cage match.

That could happen, but I've always seen some big risks for Trump in a pre-election SCOTUS fight...
Namely, the potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue to tear Trump's coalition apart.

Much of his 2016 support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked his rhetoric on immigration/trade, but are *pro-choice* - especially secular, blue-collar women.
This morning, I dove into 2016 CCES data (50,000+ person national survey).

Only 15% of Clinton's voters at least leaned pro-life and 11% held mixed views (74% at least leaned pro-choice).

But 22% of Trump's voters at least leaned pro-choice and another 13% held mixed views.
Read 10 tweets
18 Sep
Rating change: #VA05 race between Cameron Webb (D) and Bob Good (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up at @CookPolitical as Republicans sound the alarm. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
If you guessed Charlottesville, VA, you win. A month ago I wouldn’t have guessed we would be moving #VA05 - a deeply polarized, Trump +11% seat - to Toss Up.
But could it be deja vu? In 2008, Tom Perriello pulled off the upset of the cycle in #VA05 against a "biblical" R who ran a stone age campaign.

In 2020, Cameron Webb - perhaps Dems' best House candidate anywhere in the country - is running against a "biblical" R & divided GOP.
Read 7 tweets
18 Sep
Today’s PA Supreme Court rulings on postmark deadline, Green Party & drop boxes have been hailed as big victories for Biden. But overall, I’m not so sure Biden got the better end of these rulings. 1/ cnbc.com/2020/09/17/202…
The court sided w/ Trump to reject so-called “naked ballots” - mail ballots that voters forgot to enclose in secrecy envelopes. In the June primary, in at least one county over 5% (!) of mail voters failed to enclose their votes in the inner envelope. sharonherald.com/news/lawrence-…
The reason? Most PA voters have little experience voting by mail.

If 50% of Dems were to vote by mail and only 10% of Reps did, and 5% of ballots were rejected, Biden could be docked 2.5% of his votes and Trump docked only 0.5%.

In PA, that could potentially be enormous.
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
So far in NC, November 2020 mail ballots cast by Black voters are being rejected at *four times* the rate of those cast by white voters.
At this point, there are two likely reasons for ballot rejection: voter error (failure to sign, etc.) and voter voluntarily canceling their ballot because they want to vote a different way. It's tough to know how much each is responsible for the discrepancy.
Either way, it's going to be a pretty big job for the parties - and let's be honest, Democrats - to follow up w/ voters who receive ballot rejection notices and help them "cure" their ballots; i.e. follow instructions properly so they count.
Read 4 tweets

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