Breaking @QuinnipiacPoll in #SCSEN:

Lindsey Graham (R) 48%
Jaime Harrison (D) 48%
Breaking @QuinnipiacPoll in #MESEN

Sara Gideon (D) 54%
Susan Collins (R) 42%
Breaking @QuinnipiacPoll in #KYSEN

Mitch McConnell (R) 53%
Amy McGrath (D) 41%
Let's see which one of these gets the most likes...guessing #KYSEN.

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More from @Redistrict

22 Sep
Fact: 11 of Texas's 254 counties contain Whole Foods Markets...

In 1992, these 11 counties cast 55% of TX's votes and gave Bill Clinton 48% of the two-party vote.

In 2016, they cast 59% and gave Hillary Clinton 54%. In 2018, they cast 61% and gave Beto O'Rourke 58%.

2020: ??
In case you're wondering, the 11 "Whole Foods counties" are:

El Paso
Fort Bend
In case you're wondering why this is relevant...Republicans ended up losing all 12 of these congressional districts in 2018:
Read 4 tweets
19 Sep
Another (brief) thread: at the rate 2020 is going, here's how the rest of the year is probably going to play out...
1. Trump nominates a conservative woman to SCOTUS before the election and McConnell holds a vote at some point before December, w/ Pence breaking a 50-50 tie to confirm.
2. Biden comfortably wins the popular vote by 4-5 million, holds all 20 Clinton states and flips #NE02, Michigan, and Arizona (where Kelly beats McSally). But Trump narrowly carries Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Texas and Georgia.

The race hinges on Pennsylvania.
Read 8 tweets
19 Sep
I've heard some analysts argue a SCOTUS fight will help Trump by shifting "what 2020 will be about" from his mismanagement of COVID to a more straightforward partisan cage match.

That could happen, but I've always seen some big risks for Trump in a pre-election SCOTUS fight...
Namely, the potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue to tear Trump's coalition apart.

Much of his 2016 support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked his rhetoric on immigration/trade, but are *pro-choice* - especially secular, blue-collar women.
This morning, I dove into 2016 CCES data (50,000+ person national survey).

Only 15% of Clinton's voters at least leaned pro-life and 11% held mixed views (74% at least leaned pro-choice).

But 22% of Trump's voters at least leaned pro-choice and another 13% held mixed views.
Read 10 tweets
18 Sep
Rating change: #VA05 race between Cameron Webb (D) and Bob Good (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up at @CookPolitical as Republicans sound the alarm.…
If you guessed Charlottesville, VA, you win. A month ago I wouldn’t have guessed we would be moving #VA05 - a deeply polarized, Trump +11% seat - to Toss Up.
But could it be deja vu? In 2008, Tom Perriello pulled off the upset of the cycle in #VA05 against a "biblical" R who ran a stone age campaign.

In 2020, Cameron Webb - perhaps Dems' best House candidate anywhere in the country - is running against a "biblical" R & divided GOP.
Read 7 tweets
18 Sep
Today’s PA Supreme Court rulings on postmark deadline, Green Party & drop boxes have been hailed as big victories for Biden. But overall, I’m not so sure Biden got the better end of these rulings. 1/…
The court sided w/ Trump to reject so-called “naked ballots” - mail ballots that voters forgot to enclose in secrecy envelopes. In the June primary, in at least one county over 5% (!) of mail voters failed to enclose their votes in the inner envelope.…
The reason? Most PA voters have little experience voting by mail.

If 50% of Dems were to vote by mail and only 10% of Reps did, and 5% of ballots were rejected, Biden could be docked 2.5% of his votes and Trump docked only 0.5%.

In PA, that could potentially be enormous.
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
So far in NC, November 2020 mail ballots cast by Black voters are being rejected at *four times* the rate of those cast by white voters.
At this point, there are two likely reasons for ballot rejection: voter error (failure to sign, etc.) and voter voluntarily canceling their ballot because they want to vote a different way. It's tough to know how much each is responsible for the discrepancy.
Either way, it's going to be a pretty big job for the parties - and let's be honest, Democrats - to follow up w/ voters who receive ballot rejection notices and help them "cure" their ballots; i.e. follow instructions properly so they count.
Read 4 tweets

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