The CDC has updated their weekly excess mortality report, which now indicates that all-cause mortality returned to the normal or expected level at the end of August: Image
In total, there have been 232K more deaths than expected this year, while the CDC currently reports 182K Covid deaths. This 50K person gap can be explained by reporting lags, undercounts, or lockdown-induced deaths. Image
For those over 45, the all-cause mortality curve mirrors Covid mortality - implying that most of this excess mortality will be attributed to Covid (or Covid panic): Image
For those under 25, there has been no excess mortality yet this year, at all - which also matches the complete lack of reported Covid deaths in this cohort. The young seem completely immune to bad outcomes from this disease. Image
For young adults, something odd is happening. Excess mortality rose in the Spring and remained elevated for six months before declining at the end of Summer. Image
Only 1/4 of the excess mortality seen among young adults has been attributed directly to Covid. The remaining 13K unexplained deaths must be due to panic. Image
For the very old, 90% of excess mortality this year is attribute to Covid, for the middle-aged it is 75% covid-related. For young adults, three-quarters of excess mortality is due to panic [for children, there is no excess mortality]. Image

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More from @Humble_Analysis

3 Sep
Euro Momo has also been updated for Week 35. Europe has been post-Covid for 16 weeks; despite a two month rise in "cases", there has been no measurable impact on mortality:
One thing to remember about "excess" mortality is that there are reported "excess" deaths every Winter. For comparison, 2018 had 122K excess deaths while 2020 has had 207K (and falling).
In other words, the true excess deaths in Europe this year, compared to 2018, is only 85K - which means there are 2 extra deaths this year for every 10,000 people in Europe.
Read 5 tweets
7 Aug
All-Cause mortality in the USA had been trending back to normal since March but then began to rise again for a few weeks before resuming a rapid decline. This was not due to a "2nd Wave" but rather a 1st wave landing somewhere new:
Health & Human Services designates 10 regions within the US. Looking at all-cause mortality by region provides some interesting insights.
New England shows an obvious uptick in deaths from Covid, with peak week fatalities 65% higher than even a bad flu year. Deaths, however, quickly returned to normal and now appear to be at record lows: evidence that Covid deaths are primarily pull-foward?
Read 16 tweets
16 Jul has been updated for this week. There has been no reported excess mortality across Europe for six weeks, now. I think we can close the book on Covid in Europe, at least for this season.
Across Europe, for those under 45 (more than 100m people) there were about 1000 more deaths this year than usual, during the Covid period. What % were caused by hysteria?
The CDC has also updated the provisional Covid mortality by day of death. Unlike last week (orange) where mostly they filled in old deaths from April, this week they primarily added deaths from late June:
Read 6 tweets
13 Jul
There are 12 US states, plus DC, which have an all-cause mortality z-score in excess of the threshold value of 5 thus far in 2020. Those states exhibit the common pattern of two mild flu seasons followed by a covid spike:
Looking at the 52 week moving average conforms to the expected pattern of "missing" deaths followed by a covid catch-up:
Collectively, these states have reported 592 deaths per million, which is above the burn out threshold predicted by @MLevitt_NP2013 and they have now seen all-cause mortality falling below normal levels.
Read 14 tweets
10 Jul
Last night I looked at the Covid mortality curve for each state and grouped them into four categories: Image
23 states are following a Gompertz function, with deaths peaking early and now declining to near zero. These are mostly located in the northeast and midwest. These states are likely past their Covid season.
16 states never had any significant deaths. These are mostly rural states in the West (plus Hawaii). Given density, these states are unlikely to ever face an outbreak.
Read 6 tweets
9 Jul
The Max Planck Institute has updated their Human Mortality Database with one more week's worth of data, so I decided to re-look at my theory that prior flu season severity might impact Covid deaths.
Looking at the USA, I noticed that both 2019 and 2020 had very low excess mortality relative to prior years:
To normalize seasonality, I created a trailing 52 week moving average, which clearly shows the "missing" fatalities and the Covid "catch-up" effect. For the USA, Covid has mainly acted to return mortality to trend:
Read 23 tweets

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