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modest proposal Profile picture
@modestproposal1
Sep 16, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
This story of Will Danoff getting a muffin is fantastic Image
Amazing Image
“I was like, Herb, the great Warren Buffett says he got — he lost a lot of money in U.S. Air. How can you make money in the airline industry? And he said, Warren bet at the wrong airline” Image
“What do I know from Tinder and match.com? But if I can ask the young analysts what phones they’re using, what apps they’re using, tell me about this technology, again,” Image
This was great ritholtz.com/2020/09/transc…

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More from @modestproposal1

modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 28, 2023
Something that was noticeable, on each of MSFT peer review slides for Apple, Amazon and Google, they highlighted progress on proprietary chips



And then the Azure and Windows slides both have develop custom silicon chips as long term drivers. We knew that this was the case, but just interesting to see them highlight other co's successes and set goals for it.

"base of our stack, our custom silicon efforts will help us remain competitive.. Our efforts will be a mix of internal and partnership... ultimately, we will need to become a first-class provider of chipset designs, especially the most critical chips given our scale in the cloud"
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 28, 2023
the TL,DR on the MSFT Board deck

Snowflake? Point player.
Twilio? Here we come.

(also interesting to note the play for open source devs and cloud natives)
Read 6 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
FTC request for comments on hyperscalers interesting. Can tell a lot by each participants responses.

ORCL/NET: whining about egress fees
GOOG: whining about MSFT/ORCL leveraging on prem biz to win cloud
MSFT: "very competitive market, even IBM"
AWS: history and tutorial on cloud
this is arguably more descriptive from AWS then anything they've said to investors about AI

Google complaining about MSFT and ORCL and then pitching Workspaces right in the doc. ABC guys, ABC.

Read 6 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 3, 2023
New collection of Messi vs Ronaldo charts. It’s pretty amazing how statistically similar they are. Ronaldo slightly more goals, but because of penalties. Messi more run of play goals. Messi far more assists, mostly after Ronaldo worried about injuries and stopped moving as much. ImageImage
Great chart contextualizing Messi and Ronaldo’s goal scoring Image
I would not have guessed Haaland is merely tracking Mbappe so far, given how prolific he seems. And Ronaldo was absolutely scorching early on. Shame he liked to eat. Image
Read 6 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 2, 2023
Look forward to someone doing the math but re AMZN wireless, are they gonna subsidize phones? Looking at Prime subs spend vs Non-prime, churn, and offering $0-10 lines, phone subsidy dramatically impacts net economics. If no subsidy, effective cost to consumers is much higher.
Other calcs

- likely at risk to churn Prime HHs have lower spend than avg Prime HHs

- need to model ratio of at risk Prime HHs retained vs not at risk choosing wireless/reducing NPV

- as acq tool for non Prime HHs, almost certainly have lower spend/LTVs than existing Prime HHs
Assuming monthly cost to carrier is around what cable co's seem to be paying VZ (even tho that was sweetheart deal), depending on ratio of at risk retained to non at risk who take wireless, can see the math working. But phone subsidies would really impact that calc.
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
May 16, 2023
After a convo with smart friend, I wanted to test hypothesis that shift from Cable Nets to DTC meant more capital employed, smaller profit pool, and lower returns.

Very rough cut, but I took the media biz (Cable Nets/Studios, no Parks or O&Os except NBCU).

Results seem clear. ImageImage
To start, I disaggregated 2016 media co's into Cable Nets and Studio to the extent possible. What you can see is that the Cable Nets earned extraordinary returns on tangible assets. These were amazing biz. Studios ex DIS were not nearly as good. On the right are the consolidated. Image
When you compare 2016 to 2026, you can see Tangible Assets employed by the media co's will have nearly doubled. But EBIAT is actually down by 30%. Yes, some of that is intangible amortization, but the point holds, a huge increase in assets employed yielded no incremental profits. Image
Read 6 tweets

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