I have no idea which #vaccine
@realDonaldTrump was talking about today. But if we are going to have a vaccine before 2021, it will be one of these seven.

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mRNA vaccines
Inactivated virus vaccines
Adenovirus vector vaccines

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More from @methodsmanmd

5 Aug
OK let's do this.
In one place - ALL the randomized trials of #Hydroxychloroquine for #COVID.

5 peer-reviewed RCTs. 1 large RCT still in pre-print, but deserves recognition.

All negative.

I don't know what else to say at this point.

Read 10 tweets
19 May
There will be no "antibody passports" for a while. Even if an antibody test has a low (say 5%) false positive rate, if YOU get a positive test, it may only be 50/50 (or less) that you actually have antibodies. WTF? (1/n)
It comes down to the false positive rate versus the positive predictive value. The FPR is how often a test comes back positive in a group of people WITHOUT antibodies. For this example, let's say that's 5%. (2/n)
OK - but as an individual, that number doesn't mean a lot. After all, you don't know if you truly have antibodies or not. That's why you're getting the test. (3/n)
Read 13 tweets
12 Mar
We're testing the wrong people for #Covid_19, let me explain (a thread). (1/12)
OK - tests are limited. That's a given. If they were unlimited, we'd test everyone. That's not an option. We need to triage. (2/12)
But what health systems are doing is selecting those who get tested. And they are picking a very specific group to test:
They focus on those with "classic" symptoms - like fever.
Read 12 tweets
18 May 18
1/ A student just asked me why, if the p-value for a study is 0.04, we can't say the study has a 4% chance of being a false positive. First off, we definitely can't, even under idealized conditions - here's a brief thread as to why.
2/ (Apologies to the great John Ioannidis who does this better than I ever could), and to @VinayPrasadMD whose "Tweetorials" are an amazing epiphenomenon in and of themselves.
3/ Imagine a world of scientific hypotheses - all those hypotheses out there, floating in the ether. "Atorvastatin reduces nose bleeds" is out there. So is "marijuana use increases the chance of graduating college". Some of these are true hypotheses, some are not.
Read 19 tweets

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