Robert E Kelly Profile picture
Sep 17, 2020 16 tweets 3 min read Read on X
THREAD on the Bolton and Woodward books regarding Trump and North Korea. The big, completely predictable, takeaways:

1. Trump had no idea what he was doing.

Both confirm pretty much what anyone could see from the start – that Trump was winging it. Of Trump’s many governing /1
flaws, it is his shambolic maladministration of government that aggravates me the most. Dealing with NK on nukes is a big deal. A lot people are really concerned that NK may proliferate them, manage them poorly and have an accidental, or use them if there were a war. This is /2
serious stuff, yet Trump showed up grossly unprepared, didn’t read or listen to his briefers, didn’t understand the issues, knew nothing about Korea, nukes, or missiles, and would have signed just about anything were it not for all the journalists and analysts holding his feet /3
to the fire not to give away the farm for some flim-flam agreement NK would cheat on anyway. The whole thing was a farce from the start.

2. Trump didn’t care at all that Kim Jong Un is a sociopath and actually kind of admired him. Ugh

Again, if you paid attention,you already /4
could see this. Trump’s sycophancy before dictators is one of his worst, most un-American foreign policy traits. But in the books, you really get to see Trump fawning over Kim, a tin-pot dictator no one would care about if he didn’t have nukes. It’s gross and absurd. Yes, we /5
have to deal with unsavory leaders in world politics, but you don’t have to toady to them like Trump does with Kim, Xi, and Putin. Trump seems to think that Kim calling Obama an ‘a**hole’ makes Trump look better. It does not; it’s actually a complement of sorts to Obama, bc it /6
bc it means Obama knew what kind totalitarian KJU is.

3. It was all about the images.

The hawkish critique of this from the start was that it all was just photo-op diplomacy. Doves tried to defend it as the summit diplomacy long needed to break the Korean stalemate,and there /7
is indeed something to that argument. (I have a paper coming out later this year on this.) But what the doves could never quite admit – especially here in SK – was that Trump didn’t actually care. Trump was not Carter at Camp David shepherding a breakthrough possible only at /8
the leader-level. He was, instead and predictably, the TV-obsessed con-man he’s been his whole career. He just wanted the pictures and symbolism. Walking over the DMZ line was enough in his mind to win a Nobel Prize, garnering even more attention and acclaim. That he didn’t /9
broker an actual deal like Carter – that he didn’t resolve anything and that nothing has changed on the ground here in Korea - never actually occurs to him as a problem in either book. Instead, he demands that Woodward call his pictures and walk inside N Korea ‘cool,’ like /10
some high schooler on a field trip. It’s ridiculous.

4. The South Korean left both got taken for a ride and is complicit in Trump’s theatrics.

The player which comes off worst in all this – other Trump - is the dovish left in South Korea. So obsessed with getting a POTUS to /11
meet a North Korean leader is President Moon Jae In’s coalition that it aligned itself with wannabe authoritarian con-man Trump, a figure similar to the right-wing dictators the SK left fought against in the past. This is an appalling cession of moral high-ground. SK liberals /12
should have known better than to throw in their lot with Trump. Yet they manipulated him from the start,with the SK president and foreign minister talking about what a great man he was and how he deserved the Nobel Prize. It was an open secret in South Korea that all this was /13
a flattering lie. Moon’s people could see as well as anyone how grossly incompetent Trump was, how he didn’t know anything about the issues, as well as Trump’s deep personal animus toward South Korea. Yet they went along with him anyway, got nothing real out of Pyongyang, and /14
now face a hawkish future because no will believe, outside of the most ideological doves, that NK wants to deal after 3 years of Trump and Moon falling all over themselves to make concessions. Doves wanted a serious POTUS like Obama or Carter to negotiate with Kim; instead /15
they got a con-man incompetent who squandered summitry for his own ego; now they have to live with the backlash consequences. /16

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More from @Robert_E_Kelly

Apr 14
The Trump administration is not acting on the policy suggestions these books make, so I guess they can’t be that important after all.

Both Huntington & Allison recommend America ally with like-minded states against jihadism and China respectively.

Mearsheimer too recommends

1
allies, given how hyper-competitive he sees world politics - especially territorially proximate allies given the stopping power of water.

Yet Trump is wrecking US partnerships for a belligerent unilateralism even neocons wouldn’t advocate.

Next, all three 3 understand that

2
national power is based on economic foundations. None advocates Smoot-Hawley-style tariffs, especially against allies.

Yet that is what Trump is doing.

All argue that world politics is a jungle, but lots of realists argue that. That’s noting new.

If you really want to see

3
Read 4 tweets
Apr 2
I would qualify this👇: MAGA is an ideology of US decline

- It is explicitly backward-looking for its model (America was great in the past but is not now).

- That past greatness was rooted in a fading economic sector - blue-collar factory work - which no amount of tarriffs

1
will revivify.

- MAGA aches for older social relations - most obviously in its intense dislike of economically independent women - even if it costs the economy.

- It similarly dislikes immigration, despite the obvious economic benefits, particularly entrepeneurialism.

2
- It rejects imports despite the obvious benefits of better quality & lower price from competition.

- It exults small-town and rural America, even though the engine of American GDP growth is cities and regional clusters

- It resents higher education even though that leads to

3
Read 8 tweets
Mar 2
Trump is NOT a realist. Realism uses national power to serve nat’l interests, without ideological blinders, right?

But Trump:

- pointlessly antagonizes the 2 countries with which we have a land border

- aggressively pursues the factional, ideological interests of Christian

1
fundamentalists in the M East rather than US general interest

- undermines NATO which has kept the peace for 80 years in a core area of US FoPo interest

- believes autocracies like Russia or N Korea are credible counterparties

- rejects alliances which supplement US power

2
& enable US global power projection

- thinks trade wars with allies enhance US power

- is guided in foreign policy by his own ego quirks - loathing for Zelensky & female leaders, admiration for dictators - rather than US national interests

If Trump were a realist, he would

3
Read 8 tweets
Feb 21
🧵
Most of this is wrong. Let’s go thru it:

1. There is no evidence to substantiate the claim that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine were Trump president

MAGA keeps saying this as if it is self-evident, but given the size & scale of the Russian invasion,plus Putin's long-

1
running, deep-seated hatred for UKR independence, it is hard to believe this whole thing actually turned on a far-away event 16 months earlier: the 2020 US election. Indeed, the belief that the whole world turns on US decisions is a particular American hubris, probably derived

2
from our long-running superpowerdom. But it is not true. Other countries have agency independent of us, especially great powers like RU.

2. Vance and MAGA did not know that UKR had no pathway to victory for the last 3 years

This is lazy retrodiction – using contemporary info

3
Read 13 tweets
Dec 4, 2024
🧵on the S Korean semi-coup

1. This sure looks like a soft or semi-coup, like a SK version of January 6 in the US.

Declaring martial law in response to the gridlock of divided government is just a ridiculous rationale.

And declaring late at night, when half the country is

1
asleep is hugely suspicious.

2. It was remarkably inept. In fact, it looks impulsive, as if Yoon decided this the same day

The declaration targeted the media, opposition, & public political expression. That would require a sweeping move across the country to enforce.Instead

2
the military and police at the legislature gave away to opposition MPs almost immediately.

Yoon seemed to have no plan to deal with the predictable explosion of public protest. SK has a vibrant street protest culture, including militant labor unions. Did he really think the

3
Read 11 tweets
Nov 8, 2024
🧵Foreign Policy Implications of Trump’s Victory

1. Do not read a huge foreign policy public opinion shift into T’s victory.
Voters do not choose based on FoPo. This is really well-established in pol sci, & polling. I am seeing a lot of FoPo analysts

1
saying the election means the US public has turned against the liberal int'l order, Ukraine, Israel or whatever. No, it does not. All the data so far suggest that T won bc of the economy (inflation) &, less so, culture (wokeism)

2. Despite the public's

2
disinterest, T will have a big impact on US FoPo.
T does not share long-standing US liberal & democratic values. He will be a friend to autocrats and complain ceaselessly about US allies. This is a big shift; the US has never had an aspiring authoritarian in the presidency bf.

3
Read 14 tweets

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