Robert E Kelly Profile picture
Sep 17, 2020 16 tweets 3 min read Read on X
THREAD on the Bolton and Woodward books regarding Trump and North Korea. The big, completely predictable, takeaways:

1. Trump had no idea what he was doing.

Both confirm pretty much what anyone could see from the start – that Trump was winging it. Of Trump’s many governing /1
flaws, it is his shambolic maladministration of government that aggravates me the most. Dealing with NK on nukes is a big deal. A lot people are really concerned that NK may proliferate them, manage them poorly and have an accidental, or use them if there were a war. This is /2
serious stuff, yet Trump showed up grossly unprepared, didn’t read or listen to his briefers, didn’t understand the issues, knew nothing about Korea, nukes, or missiles, and would have signed just about anything were it not for all the journalists and analysts holding his feet /3
to the fire not to give away the farm for some flim-flam agreement NK would cheat on anyway. The whole thing was a farce from the start.

2. Trump didn’t care at all that Kim Jong Un is a sociopath and actually kind of admired him. Ugh

Again, if you paid attention,you already /4
could see this. Trump’s sycophancy before dictators is one of his worst, most un-American foreign policy traits. But in the books, you really get to see Trump fawning over Kim, a tin-pot dictator no one would care about if he didn’t have nukes. It’s gross and absurd. Yes, we /5
have to deal with unsavory leaders in world politics, but you don’t have to toady to them like Trump does with Kim, Xi, and Putin. Trump seems to think that Kim calling Obama an ‘a**hole’ makes Trump look better. It does not; it’s actually a complement of sorts to Obama, bc it /6
bc it means Obama knew what kind totalitarian KJU is.

3. It was all about the images.

The hawkish critique of this from the start was that it all was just photo-op diplomacy. Doves tried to defend it as the summit diplomacy long needed to break the Korean stalemate,and there /7
is indeed something to that argument. (I have a paper coming out later this year on this.) But what the doves could never quite admit – especially here in SK – was that Trump didn’t actually care. Trump was not Carter at Camp David shepherding a breakthrough possible only at /8
the leader-level. He was, instead and predictably, the TV-obsessed con-man he’s been his whole career. He just wanted the pictures and symbolism. Walking over the DMZ line was enough in his mind to win a Nobel Prize, garnering even more attention and acclaim. That he didn’t /9
broker an actual deal like Carter – that he didn’t resolve anything and that nothing has changed on the ground here in Korea - never actually occurs to him as a problem in either book. Instead, he demands that Woodward call his pictures and walk inside N Korea ‘cool,’ like /10
some high schooler on a field trip. It’s ridiculous.

4. The South Korean left both got taken for a ride and is complicit in Trump’s theatrics.

The player which comes off worst in all this – other Trump - is the dovish left in South Korea. So obsessed with getting a POTUS to /11
meet a North Korean leader is President Moon Jae In’s coalition that it aligned itself with wannabe authoritarian con-man Trump, a figure similar to the right-wing dictators the SK left fought against in the past. This is an appalling cession of moral high-ground. SK liberals /12
should have known better than to throw in their lot with Trump. Yet they manipulated him from the start,with the SK president and foreign minister talking about what a great man he was and how he deserved the Nobel Prize. It was an open secret in South Korea that all this was /13
a flattering lie. Moon’s people could see as well as anyone how grossly incompetent Trump was, how he didn’t know anything about the issues, as well as Trump’s deep personal animus toward South Korea. Yet they went along with him anyway, got nothing real out of Pyongyang, and /14
now face a hawkish future because no will believe, outside of the most ideological doves, that NK wants to deal after 3 years of Trump and Moon falling all over themselves to make concessions. Doves wanted a serious POTUS like Obama or Carter to negotiate with Kim; instead /15
they got a con-man incompetent who squandered summitry for his own ego; now they have to live with the backlash consequences. /16

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More from @Robert_E_Kelly

Apr 14
Good thread, nicely illustrating how de-linked the GOP evangelical base is from the rest of America.

They wanna go after abortion, IVF, birth control, gay marriage, and the rest. GOP leaders know this is electoral suicide, but they don’t know how to get around it. If Biden is

1
smart, he’ll make personal family & sexual freedom the center of his campaign.

Evangelicals may overwhelm the GOP internally, but the rest of the country thinks they’re weird & creepy

This is the result of social isolation: churches which provide a whole separated lifestyle,

2
a TV ‘news’ network which only tells you what you want to hear, home-schooling, a sealed media ecosystem of faith-based movies and influencers telling you that social change is the apocalypse.

Catholics once had parallel institutions like this, especially the schools. But we

3
Read 5 tweets
Mar 10
BBC Dad content

Today is the 7th anniversary of the BBC Dad blooper.

So here it is again, with some recent family pictures in the thread below.

1
These are from Marion's birthday party today, and James and I hiking this morning


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Another hiking picture, and some Christmas 2023 pictures


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Read 4 tweets
Feb 20
This thread makes a point political science emphasizes a lot - and which I tell my students constantly:

Competent democratic government is actually really boring. A lot of it is unappealing trade-offs, wonks diving deep into detail the public won’t track, maintenance instead

1
of flashy new initiatives politicians can put their name on, compromise between parties which leaves no one happy, incremental, unexciting improvements only visible over the medium-term, and so on.

This is not entertaining or engaging, & doesn’t make for exciting journalism.

2
But it is how you mostly want democracies governed. This is why you don’t elect showboats like Trump or Jesse Ventura, and you do elect competent administrators like George W. Bush or Biden.

Sometimes I think Fukuyama is right: wealthy democracies get so bored that they

3
Read 5 tweets
Jan 18
🧵No, there won't be a War with N Korea

Yes, NK's rhetoric seems more belligerent lately. Yes, this Kim seems to enjoy making scary threats more than his father did. Yes, the US is distracted by Ukraine & Gaza. But

1. N Korea is the Boy who Cried Wolf

1
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
NK constantly talks like this. I made this point back in 2013👇when Kim told foreigners to leave SK bc war was imminent (jerk). Perhaps Kim means it this time. That is possible,of course. But it's impossible to reliably infer that f/ NK rhetoric anymore

2
thediplomat.com/2013/04/north-…
2. Talk is Cheap

National elites say outlandish stuff all the time. Look at Putin. Threats are a cheap signal. What matters instead are costly signals, which in the NK case would mean something like a seventh nuclear test, a missile test flight over SK, or border skirmishes.

3
Read 11 tweets
Oct 29, 2023
Latent capacity is not capability. Khrushchev said we will bury you, and Mao thought he could fight a nuclear war bc of China’s huge population.This is not how conflict works

Sacks says stuff like this all the time. I’ve no idea why he’s taken seriously as a geopolitical thinker
1. We are highly unlikely to fight all three at the same time. Sacks is ginning up an extreme scenario to scare people

2. The U.S. would not fight alone. We have a huge alliance network, and those states are wealthy and capable too

3. Our goals against all three are limited…
We are not going to invade Russia or China

4. Nuclear weapons limit the likelihood of great power escalation. That works in our favor as the status quo power

5. US has spent trillions on defense for decades. These states have not.That’s a huge logistical advantage you don’t see
Read 5 tweets
Oct 10, 2023
In fact, Biden’s dealt with these crises pretty well.

In Ukraine, he’s helped that fledging democracy fight off increasingly overt fascist imperialism. On Israel, he’s robustly supported Israeli security while discouraging Netanyahu’s legal coup, and has encouraged Israelis

1
and Palestinians toward the negotiated solution which is the only durable way out of the cycle of violence they’re locked in.

Yeah, it’s choppy and messy, but that’s how the sausage gets made and it could easily be a lot worse.

Were Trump were POTUS, Russia would be on the

2
Dnipro and NATO would be fracturing as Eastern Europe armed to the teeth while Western Europe dithered.

In Israel, the hard right government would feel unbound in the coming offensive, and the US and Iran would probably be in a shooting war by the end of the month.

So yeah,

3
Read 4 tweets

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