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Gavin Barwell Profile picture
@GavinBarwell
Sep 17, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
True and an important point that some ignore - but it also removed security infrastructure at the border. Its genius was getting people to accept the status quo unless and until a majority want it to change by, among other things, making the border invisible in everyday life
And this was made possible by the fact that both the UK and Ireland were members of the EU's customs union and single market. At the time, no-one envisaged that was going to change - and it hardly featured as an issue (at least in Great Britain) during the Brexit referendum
But it has dominated the Brexit debate ever since. The hard truth so many continue to avoid is Brexit has to mean a) the UK staying aligned with certain EU rules or b) some checks when goods move from GB to NI or c) some checks when goods move between NI and Ireland

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More from @GavinBarwell

Gavin Barwell Profile picture
Nov 6, 2024
Donald Trump has won - and won bigger than most of the pollsters predicted (a hat tip to my friend @jamesjohnson252 who was one of the few who got it right). A short 🧵 on why he won and what it means 1/15
Biden and his advisers will rightly be blamed for taking so long to work out he wasn't up to running again. Ditto Harris for not differentiating herself enough from him 2/15
But even if Biden had announced he was standing down early enough to allow Democrats to choose the best possible candidate in a contested primary, whoever emerged might not have beaten Trump. Incumbents are struggling pretty much everywhere because voters are worse off 3/15
Read 15 tweets
Gavin Barwell Profile picture
May 9, 2024
Interesting thread some of which I agree with (current net migration unsustainable + Johnson system does not sufficiently prioritise those who would make the highest economic contribution). But (at least) four issues with key recommendation @RobertJenrick @NeilDotObrien 1/10
@rcolvile says migration doesn't benefit GDP/head, only GDP. But both matter. Cut migration beyond current OBR projection and GDP will be lower than it would have been so debt as % of GDP will be higher. Unless Govt changes fiscal rules that means higher taxes/lower spending 2/10
You might be able to partly offset this by increasing the skill level (and therefore the likely economic contribution) of those who do come here, but it's highly unlikely you could wholly offset such a sharp reduction in net migration 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Gavin Barwell Profile picture
Feb 10, 2024
The real lesson of Labour's Green Prosperity Plan u-turn is that fiscal rules make it very difficult for governments or oppositions to make large long term cash spending pledges. A short 🧵 explaining why 1/7
Both main parties are committed to having debt as a % of GDP falling by the end of the forecast period. It is this rule that is currently limiting how much headroom the Chancellor has to loosen fiscal policy by cutting taxes (or, if he wanted to, raise spending) 2/7
According to the latest @OBR_UK forecast, Labour's pledge to spend ~£20 billion more a year on green investment would have breached this rule. They have u-turned to avoid the Conservatives and their supporters in the media being able to repeat this endlessly in the campaign 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Gavin Barwell Profile picture
Dec 31, 2023
As 2023 draws to a close, an evidence-based thread about what we have learnt about UK politics this year - and in the last four months in particular 1/19

(Warning: with one small exception, what follows is not cheery from a Conservative perspective)
Since the end of the summer recess, Number 10 has made five major interventions to try to close Labour's poll lead - Sunak's net zero speech, his Conference speech, the King's Speech, the reshuffle and the tax cuts in the Autumn Statement 2/19
As the chart below, shows *none of them have made any difference* - indeed in terms of the Conservative vote share they might have made things slightly worse 3/19 Image
Read 19 tweets
Gavin Barwell Profile picture
Jul 24, 2023
The Uxbridge by-election result has prompted an outbreak of silliness in parts of both main parties and the commentariat about net zero - ironically just when parts of Europe, China and the US are experiencing record temperatures. A short 🧵about how this will play out 1/10
First the Uxbridge result was *not* a rejection of net zero. It was driven by anger at a specific measure (to improve air quality not reduce carbon emissions, although there are parallels) - and that anger was more about the unfairness of the policy rather than the objective 2/10
What is public opinion on net zero? Last summer, @IpsosUK found 52% wanted the target brought forward, 26% were happy with 2050 and only 18% wanted it delayed or scrapped 3/10ipsos.com/en-uk/8-10-bri…
Read 10 tweets
Gavin Barwell Profile picture
May 5, 2023
A (I promise fairly short) thread on the local elections results

When you spin you could lose 1,000 seats (because you privately think it will be a bit better than that), and then you actually lose more than that, there's no getting round the fact it was a bad night 1/9
The Conservatives' problem isn't @RishiSunak - the polls show he personally is pretty competitive vs @Keir_Starmer. The problem is the damage @BorisJohnson and @trussliz have done to the party's reputation. It is paying the price for electing them as its leaders 2/9
(To be fair, Johnson initially delivered an electoral dividend before doing profound damage; Truss just did profound damage) 3/9
Read 9 tweets

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