Co-founder NorthStar advising business on UK and geo-politics Former No 10 Chief of Staff, Housing Minister & Croydon MP #lfc fan, Tolkien nerd & Nandos addict
4 subscribers
Nov 6 • 15 tweets • 2 min read
Donald Trump has won - and won bigger than most of the pollsters predicted (a hat tip to my friend @jamesjohnson252 who was one of the few who got it right). A short 🧵 on why he won and what it means 1/15
Biden and his advisers will rightly be blamed for taking so long to work out he wasn't up to running again. Ditto Harris for not differentiating herself enough from him 2/15
May 9 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting thread some of which I agree with (current net migration unsustainable + Johnson system does not sufficiently prioritise those who would make the highest economic contribution). But (at least) four issues with key recommendation @RobertJenrick @NeilDotObrien 1/10
@rcolvile says migration doesn't benefit GDP/head, only GDP. But both matter. Cut migration beyond current OBR projection and GDP will be lower than it would have been so debt as % of GDP will be higher. Unless Govt changes fiscal rules that means higher taxes/lower spending 2/10
Feb 10 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The real lesson of Labour's Green Prosperity Plan u-turn is that fiscal rules make it very difficult for governments or oppositions to make large long term cash spending pledges. A short 🧵 explaining why 1/7
Both main parties are committed to having debt as a % of GDP falling by the end of the forecast period. It is this rule that is currently limiting how much headroom the Chancellor has to loosen fiscal policy by cutting taxes (or, if he wanted to, raise spending) 2/7
Dec 31, 2023 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
As 2023 draws to a close, an evidence-based thread about what we have learnt about UK politics this year - and in the last four months in particular 1/19
(Warning: with one small exception, what follows is not cheery from a Conservative perspective)
Since the end of the summer recess, Number 10 has made five major interventions to try to close Labour's poll lead - Sunak's net zero speech, his Conference speech, the King's Speech, the reshuffle and the tax cuts in the Autumn Statement 2/19
Jul 24, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
The Uxbridge by-election result has prompted an outbreak of silliness in parts of both main parties and the commentariat about net zero - ironically just when parts of Europe, China and the US are experiencing record temperatures. A short 🧵about how this will play out 1/10
First the Uxbridge result was *not* a rejection of net zero. It was driven by anger at a specific measure (to improve air quality not reduce carbon emissions, although there are parallels) - and that anger was more about the unfairness of the policy rather than the objective 2/10
May 5, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
A (I promise fairly short) thread on the local elections results
When you spin you could lose 1,000 seats (because you privately think it will be a bit better than that), and then you actually lose more than that, there's no getting round the fact it was a bad night 1/9
The Conservatives' problem isn't @RishiSunak - the polls show he personally is pretty competitive vs @Keir_Starmer. The problem is the damage @BorisJohnson and @trussliz have done to the party's reputation. It is paying the price for electing them as its leaders 2/9
Feb 22, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Since some people found the thread replying to Simon Clarke yesterday interesting, here's a short thread on the DUP's position 1/7
Ultimately what the DUP wants is for Northern Ireland to be treated the same as the rest of the UK. That is understandable given their politics - indeed I have a lot of sympathy with it. The problem is they have never faced up to the simple choice that this means 2/7
Feb 21, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1. A reminder that Simon was one of those who agreed something that kept Northern Ireland subject to EU law. He told his voters at the last election what a good deal it was. And it's not as if he and others weren't warned - by me and others - what the consequences would be
2. The Protocol Bill is not a "clean solution". It lacks consent in Northern Ireland. It involves the UK unilaterally overriding a treaty it freely entered into. It will lead to a trade dispute with the EU, further damaging our economy 2/8
Dec 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The latest estimate suggests our economy is 5.5% smaller as a result of Brexit. My former colleagues don't want to talk about this (nor do Labour), but it explains something else they don't like: the high tax burden - tax revenues would be £40 billion higher 🧵 1/6
It's important to acknowledge this is only an estimate - we're trying to compare what's happened with what might have happened had we remained. We can't know the latter for sure, but that doesn't mean we can't produce good estimates 2/6
Oct 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It shouldn't need saying, but one of the lessons of the last few weeks is that being Prime Minister, particularly in difficult times, is *incredibly hard*. Commenting from the sidelines - as I now do, and some make a living from - is easy. Doing the job is not 1/5
It requires experience, resilience, good judgement, outstanding communication skills and above all seriousness - there are no simple solutions. It tests even the most skilful politicians to their limits 2/5
Oct 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A (very short I promise) thread dealing with the most common replies to this because there are too many to reply to individually 1/4
"What reputation?"/"The decline started much longer than three weeks ago" Twitter you need to distinguish between your personal view of the Conservative Party and the aggregate view. Look at this chart: something dramatic and unprecedented has happened in the last three weeks 2/4
Sep 6, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
Later today, @trussliz will begin appointing her Cabinet. If the pre-briefing is right, she risks repeating @BorisJohnson's mistake of favouring allies and it will be one of the least experienced in modern times - think Kwarteng/Cleverly/Braverman vs Howe/Carrington/Whitelaw 1/n
If the rumours are true, there will be no roles for @RishiSunak or @DominicRaab, and - after briefings from the Truss camp that he would be sacked - @michaelgove has ruled himself out 2/n
Sep 5, 2022 • 23 tweets • 7 min read
Later today, we will find out who is going to be our next prime minister. They will face one of the most difficult inheritances of any prime minister in my lifetime. A thread explaining why and looking at the policy and political challenges they face 1/n
I spent two years working for @theresa_may. She inherited the huge Gordian knot of Brexit, but the rest of the policy environment was (relatively) benign. The new prime minister faces challenges on virtually every front 2/n
Aug 27, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
I don't have the time to correct all the errors in her article @KeithKeith80, so here is a short thread that unpicks one example of how you are being misled 1/x
Camilla says "Consider the parts of [Mrs May's] Brexit disaster that Mr Johnson couldn't fix...we've ended up with a Northern Ireland Protocol which needs to be reformed" But the Protocol isn't something Boris couldn't fix - IT IS THE ONLY BIT OF HER BREXIT DEAL HE DID CHANGE 2/x
Jun 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts on how to interpret tonight's result (declaration of interest: as those who follow me will know, I think Boris needs to go but I have tried to be put that to one side) 1/n
The starting point is that however many people vote against him tonight the fact we are having a vote of confidence at all is a very bad sign for the prime minister's political longevity 2/n
May 31, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
A thread on the strengths and weaknesses of the prime minister's position from someone who knows what it's like to sit there in Number 10 comscious that at some point the threshold for a vote of no confidence is likely to be reached 1/14
Let's start with the good news for the PM. First, it's not easy to evict him. Nearly half the Parliamentary party are on the payroll and whilst a few may vote against him in a secret ballot many will feel a loyalty towards him 2/14
May 3, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I see the usual expectations management BS is in full swing ahead of the local elections. Last time most of these seats were fought, the Conservatives got 37% and Labour 36% ie both did quite well. I would expect Labour to do a bit better and the Conservatives a bit worse... 1/5
...so Labour should gain *some* seats and councils, but it is unreasonable to expect them to make *huge* gains because they're starting from a reasonably high base. In any case, if you want to assess how well the parties have done, you're much better looking at vote share... 2/5
Apr 28, 2022 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
A thread on a remarkable speech by @DavidGHFrost in which he admits he blinked in the negotiations & that the PM misled people about the deal, seems oblivious to the damage it has done and has the nerve to portray himself as a Unionist despite risking it to get Brexit done 1/n
He starts by noting that "much recent debate about Brexit is really about the pros and cons of the Protocol..that reflects the relative lack of other things to talk about" 2/n
Feb 15, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
A thread on this article by @SteveBakerHW and what it tells us about the world view of part of the Conservative Party 1/n thetimes.co.uk/article/time-t…
On the face of it, the article is about enabling a trade deal with the US by accepting their regulatory standards ("it's not for us to dictate how others regulate provided our overall goals are the same") 2/n
Feb 7, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This is quite extraordinary. When asked if Johnson's deal is "pretty much May's deal just dressed in lies" ERG researcher @CJCHowarth replies "That's pretty much it". It's not true (see below) but if he believes it why did the ERG bitterly oppose the first and support the second?
It's not true for two reasons. First, the NI Protocol is completely different. In Theresa's deal it was a backstop that would only have come into effect if the trade deal hadn't been negotiated before the end of the transition period. In Boris's deal it is a 'frontstop'...
Jan 25, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
A thread on the news that @metpoliceuk have launched an investigation into parties at Number 10 - and that the publication of Sue Gray's report will therefore be delayed - and what it means for Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party and the government 1/n
It goes without saying that being under police investigation is not good news for any Number 10. The PM's supporters will be particularly worried by Cressida Dick saying the investigation was launched as a "result of information provided by the Cabinet Office inquiry team" 2/n
