Our work on superspreading has just been published nature.com/articles/s4159…, the preprint was posted a few months ago.
Key finding - between 23 January and 28 April 2020 in Hong Kong, we analysed contact tracing data and estimated that 19% of cases seeded 80% of all local transmission. For those interested in the dispersion parameter k it was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.14–0.98). nature.com/articles/s4159…
Placing close contacts of cases in mandatory government quarantine was very effective at terminating chains of transmission. nature.com/articles/s4159…
The same work was also earlier described in an article in New York Times with @DillonCAdam nytimes.com/2020/06/02/opi…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Ben Cowling

Ben Cowling Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @bencowling88

6 Aug
Here is an update on the #COVID19 situation in Hong Kong, following from my thread last week covid19.sph.hku.hk (1/18)
(2/18) We have seen daily case numbers decline in the past few days, and hopefully we have now passed the peak in our "third wave" (which is really a second wave here, because what is being referred to as the "first wave" in Hong Kong was not a wave ...). hk.appledaily.com/local/20200730…
(3/18) However, the local reproductive number has not dipped very far below 1. A reproductive number of exactly 1 would mean on average one case is infecting one further person, and daily numbers of cases would stay the same from week to week. The lower R is below 1, the better.
Read 18 tweets
30 Jul
(1/9) Good news about COVID-19 suppression in Hong Kong, today we estimate that the daily reproductive number Rt dropped below 1 on 22 July, around a week ago covid19.sph.hku.hk
(2/9) There is a delay in estimates of Rt due to a 10-day lag between infections and laboratory confirmations, including an average of 5 days incubation period (time from infection to illness onset) and another 5 days on average between illness onset and laboratory confirmation.
(3/9) Since Rt fell below 1 on 22 July, we would expect the epidemic curve of cases by illness onset to reach a peak approximately 5 days after that (27 July), and the daily number of laboratory-confirmed cases to reach a peak within 7-14 days after 22 July.
Read 9 tweets
10 Jul
(1/7) Worrying indications that the second wave of COVID-19 has now begun in Hong Kong, with more than 50 local infections being identified in the past few days and a large number expected to be reported later today.
(2/7) Our estimate of the effective reproductive number "Rt" for local infections is close to 3, which is concerning covid19.sph.hku.hk It will take a lot of effort to bring down such a high reproductive number.
(3/7) Clusters have been identified in an elderly home, a public housing estate, and linked with some restaurants. Test+trace has not prevented this. Mask-wearing in public is still universal, and has not prevented this. scmp.com/news/hong-kong…
Read 7 tweets
29 Jun
Happy to read this op-ed in HKFP. People in Hong Kong have been wearing masks since early February, we always knew they would help even when public health authorities were advising against it hongkongfp.com/2020/06/29/i-w…
However I take exception to one of the assertions in the article
Trump _should_ set a good example by wearing a mask. BUT since he and his team are being tested daily, and anyone who meets him needs to do a COVID-19 test, I doubt that his failure to wear a mask is posing much risk to himself or the people around him? cnbc.com/2020/05/07/cor…
Read 10 tweets
10 Jun
(1/10) Just posted our new preprint on the successful suppression of first wave of #COVID19 in Hong Kong with @gmleunghku researchsquare.com/article/rs-340…
(2/10) As of 7 May, there were 1,045 COVID-19 cases, mainly in March and April, the majority of these cases were actually infected outside Hong Kong (“imported cases”).
(3/10) Travel-related measures were critical to reduce importation of infections and then local spread. 14 day quarantine of arriving persons from affected areas since early February reduced onwards transmission by 95%.
Read 10 tweets
9 Jun
@mvankerkhove @WHO (1/17) A few thoughts to add to the discussion about asymptomatic cases and asymptomatic transmission…
@mvankerkhove @WHO (2/17) Some people will get infected with SARS-CoV-2, and clear the infection after a period of time, and not experience any symptoms throughout the infection. These are called asymptomatic infections.
@mvankerkhove @WHO (3/17) Based on data I have seen on systematic PCR testing of persons exposed to infection, and in quarantine, I believe asymptomatic infections occur in a minority of infections, perhaps around 20%.
Read 17 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!