@realmoney @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC Snowflake had Wall Street at "cloud" yesterday as the IPO's market value climbed to $81 billion.
With a loss of $350 million in its fiscal year ending January 2020 and another $170+ million of losses through the first six months of its
current fiscal year and a PE ratio of 220x , the company even boasts a catchy stock symbol, SNOW. At current prices, SNOW is the 69th largest market cap in the S&P despite having less trailing revenues ($440 million) of any company in the S&P Index. (Coincidentally, Amazon went
public in 1997 and traded at a market cap of $442 million (the same sales rate of SNOW today!). But it took another 14 years for Amazon's market cap to hit $80 billion (which at the time had already reached $40 billion in sales))
Unfortunately, those with a sense of market
history recognize SNOW, like SPACs, EVs and other "shiny objects" join the pantheon and list of thin reed indicators of speculation that often mark a market top. @FerroTV @saraeisen @carlquintanilla @michaelsantoli @lizclaman @riskreversal @terranovajoe @guyadami

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More from @DougKass

21 Sep
Sep 21, 2020 | 02:45 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Whither Gold?
I originally purchased (GLD) in April 2019 at around $120/share.
The last sale is about $179 -- down by about $4.20 today.
I have traded gold well over the last two years -- probably engaging five times, possibly
I don't have a position on but I want to have a portion of my portfolio in gold, but I have been laboring with what level I should be buying.
Here is what is keeping me from adding in today's schmeissing:
* The reasons to own gold seem too obvious -- the debasement of fiat
currency through expansive monetary policy and wanton fiscal policy.

* Sentiment is already bullish. My impression is that too many are optimistic about the outlook for precious metal prices.
* Everyone who wants to own gold might already own some.
* The peak Covid-19
Read 5 tweets
21 Sep
Back to sleep Princess - full disclosure on @realmoney:
Sep 18, 2020 | 11:02 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Bought SPY and QQQ Puts
* Just in case!
* Watch out for the "gamma trap door" at slightly lower levels!
I am going out to lunch with some friends at noon.
But before I do I want to
emphasize that I continue to look for lower highs that could be followed by a pattern of lower lows in the averages.
I continue to see, as mentioned in my opener today, more risk in the Nasdaq relative to the S&P Index.
I have suggested that I would reshort on strength, giving
the market a wider berth. And I continue to plan to do so.
But, given my overall negative view for the balance of the year, in the event that equities move lower over the short term, I have just purchased some defined risk out of the money (SPY) and (QQQ) puts (maturities 20-30
Read 8 tweets
21 Sep
Here is the sequence:
Sep 15, 2020 | 05:13 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Out of Nikola
I have sold out my Nikola (NKLA) trading long rental for a small profit.
The accumulating news flow (both DOJ and SEC investigations) have put even more "hair" on this trade.
I made +$9 in one day abut a week ago - it is time to rest on those laurels.
Position: None.
Sep 14, 2020 | 01:06 PM EDT DOUG KASS
NKLA Update
I pressed my Nikola long.
Position: Long NKLA
Sep 14, 2020 | 08:05 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Taking a Speculative Trading Long in Nikola in the
* NKLA's shares are again lower (-$3) in premarket trading at $29
* The company has issued a rebuttal to Hindenberg Research
I recently sold my Nikola (NKLA) long rental for a large and quick (less than one day) profit of $9/share (at $53.75):
Read 9 tweets
19 Sep
The pandemic rocks Ron Perelman's empire.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
Back in 1992 I wrote a critical cover story on his Marvel Entertainment for Barrons.
Here it is!
Perelman sued me for $50 million (and barely had a dollar in my pocket at that time) claiming that my article was inflammatory and caused him to lose several
hundred million dollars as the stock plummeted. Shortly after I won the suit (and he paid my legal expenses) Alan Abelson followed up with five more interviews with me about the dire prospects for Marvel. Marvel ultimately declared bankruptcy (it declared it again a few years
Read 5 tweets
18 Sep
Coming up on @realmoney
Has The Nasdaq Topped... And Is The Index In The Process of Breaking Down?
* While the correction is only in its second week, the evidence suggests the growing possibility of a Nasdaq top and a break down in the Nasdaq
Fueled by a revolutionary but
evolving change in market structure - in which ETFs/quant strategies and products garnered large market share gains and dominance (while traders drove up call activity, pressuring a "Gamma Squeeze") - a select group of Nasdaq leaders have been responsible for an unsustainable
advance in the Nasdaq which came to an abrupt halt recently in what we might call a "Gamma Peak."
The Nasdaq's price action over the last two years and the ascent during the dot.com era in 1999-2000 are eerily similar ... @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
The Berkshire Hathaway thesis I just heard on @cnbc @WilfredFrost @saraeisen @jimcramer makes very little sense based upon the empirical evidence.
As such, it is a silly narrative and an ill advised reason for suggesting a valuation reset.
Snowflake is a minimal investment
for Berkshire relative to its asset base. The promoter of the thesis suggests Warren's $AAPL investment is further evidence that the company is no longer investing in traditional, non technology investments.
Memo to Berkshire Bull: the Apple investment was made three years ago -
when some envisioned Apple as a value play (at less than 15x PE). As to why he is not likely selling Apple now - though it is a large portion of the company's investment portfolio - probably has more to do with not wanting to pay taxes on $60 billion of unrealized gains than
Read 6 tweets

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