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Dan Pfeiffer Profile picture
@danpfeiffer
Sep 17, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
New Poll: @crookedmedia/@ChangePolls polled new and infrequent voters in the battleground states. The poll offers some good news for @JoeBiden and some very specific guidance. Here are the best messages to turn out this critical group of voters: messagebox.substack.com/p/winning-the-…
Two key priorities to win these key voters:

1. Win the economic debate: Trump still has an advantage on the issue, but is very vulnerable.

2. Inform them about Biden: This hard to reach group wants more info on Biden's plans.

More on how to do that:

messagebox.substack.com/p/winning-the-…
For more information on the latest @crookedmedia / @ChangePolls PollerCoaster poll crooked.com/articles/polle…
Please consider subscribing to the Message Box for political analysis and actionable advice for this election and beyond. A portion of every subscription is being donated to @BlackVotersMtr - one of the most important orgs in politics today.
messagebox.substack.com/subscribe?utm_…

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More from @danpfeiffer

Dan Pfeiffer Profile picture
Feb 25
1. A lot of the takes on Trump's SOTU look like this one from Politico - "Trump did what Republicans asked."

That seems like insanely credulous bullshit to me.
There is nothing in the polling data that suggests this speech was good for the GOP.
Here's why: Image
2. The thrust of the speech was that the economy was GREAT and prices were down. No one believes that. Nearly 6 in 10 think things are worse now than before Trump became POTUS, 3/4s don't like the economy, and majorities think Trump has made the econ worse. He sounded delusional
3. Trump once again defended and touted the tariffs. Voters HATE the tariffs. They symbolize how Trump broke his promise to lower prices and then raised them instead.

Trump used his biggest speech to propose raising taxes on every American.

That's horrible politics
Read 4 tweets
Dan Pfeiffer Profile picture
Feb 10
1. Everyone (except maybe Trump) knows that Trump's approval numbers are in the toilet and Republicans are headed for a brutal midterm. At the end of the day, the person most responsible for that fate is Stephen Miller. Let me explain
2. Affordability was always going to be a problem for Trump, but Miller's push to have ICE terrorize American communities and then lie about the people killed by ICE has turned immigration from Trump's greatest strength into a glaring weakness.
3. Prior to the tragedies in Minnesota, the plan was try to turn the public's focus from affordability to immigration. That is not is no longer an option, there is no safe issue terrain for Republicans
Read 4 tweets
Dan Pfeiffer Profile picture
Feb 1
1. The results from the special election in Texas are even worse for Republicans than it looks.

Every Republican on the ballot should be scared shitless
2. It's not just the 31-point swing in Democrats' direction. It's the fact that this happened in a race where the GOP invested real time and money. Trump endorsed the incumbent, urged his supporters to vote for her, and the GOP well outspent the Democrats.
3. It's also where it happened. This is Tarrant County, a power center for Texas Republicans and a big part of what has driven their gains in recent years.
Read 6 tweets
Dan Pfeiffer Profile picture
Jan 24
1. I understand the political risk and the substantive challenges, but Democrats must do everything they can to block the ICE funding bill in Congress.

You can’t call out the fascism of ICE's actions one day and then vote to fund them the next.
2. To do so would be to reinforce every negative image voters have of Democrats. They think we are weak, full of shit, and unwilling to back up our warnings about Trump with action that is commensurate with the gravity of those warnings
3. Blocking the bill won't stop ICE, but at some point, Democrats have to draw the line and say what's happening in Minnesota and across the country is unacceptable
Read 4 tweets
Dan Pfeiffer Profile picture
Aug 13, 2025
1. Many Dems worry that Trump will "cancel" the elections to avoid getting his ass kicked in 2026, but he doesn't have the power to do that. Trump has a different plan to rig elections in 2026 and beyond.

And it's already underway.
2. It begins with the mid-decade redistricting in Texas and elsewhere. Republicans hope to net enough seats to keep the House, which gives them control of the process for seating the winner of the 2028 Presidential election.
3. Trump wants a new census that excludes the undocumented. A new census would allow Trump to manipulate the numbers and shift seats and electoral votes from blue states to red ones. Courts have resisted this in the past, but it's uncertain what they will do in the future.
Read 5 tweets
Dan Pfeiffer Profile picture
Jul 3, 2025
1. The GOP just passed the most unpopular piece of legislation in history. It could not only cost them the majority, but it might be a generational political error that could blow up the Trump coalition and reshape politics for the foreseeable future.
2. Everyone thinks Trump has remade the GOP in his image, but slashing health care and food stamps to pay for tax cuts for the rich is something Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney would have done a decade ago.

But while the policy is the same political context has changed.
3. Back in Paul Ryan's day, cuts to Medicaid and SNAP primarily hurt Democratic voters. But the political coalitions have shifted dramatically since then. Now GOP voters - espcially the ones who swung to Trump in 24 - that will bear the brunt of this bill.
Read 7 tweets

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