1. Trump is desperately trying to avoid blame for the downturn in the economy since he took office. Trying to blame Biden simply isn't going to work. Here's why:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1919029836338577829

2. On the campaign trail, Trump made outlandish and absurd promises about how he would end inflation on day one. This is why so many voters who were skeptical of Trump ultimately voted for him.

We now have four new polls that show the same thing -- Donald Trump's approval rating sinking into the mid-40s. This would be one of the shortest honeymoons for a new president in recent history. The reasons for the dip are pretty clear. 1. people do not like his agenda. In the @washingtonpost poll, 43% oppose what Trump has done in his first month. Those who strongly oppose outnumber those who strongly support by 37 percent to 27 percent

Before all of the votes are counted, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on what @KamalaHarris and her team have achieved. Trump should be running away with it, but he isn’t because Harris has run a near-flawless campaign under the utmost pressure. messageboxnews.com/p/how-kamala-h… Incumbent parties around the world are getting crushed. 3/4s think the country is on the wrong track, 2/3s are pissed about the economy, and Biden's approval is in the low 40s. The fact that this is a toss-up is amazing. messageboxnews.com/p/how-kamala-h…

1. The pundits universally declared JD Vance the "winner" of the debate. Sure, he was slicker and smoother than an initially nervous Tim Walz. They are wrong and that assessment shows a real disconnect with the voters who will decide the election. messageboxnews.com/p/no-jd-vance-… 2. Folks like me would have loved to see Walx rhetorically eviscerate Vance and hold him to account for all of his shameless lies and blatant hypocrisy, but that's what the voters wanted. They view debates as opportunities to learn not gladiator combat
messageboxnews.com/p/no-jd-vance-…

Today, the @KamalaHarris campaign challenged Trump to another debate on CNN in late October. This is the right strategic move, and it shows that the Harris-Walz campaign is being appropriately aggressive in trying to close out the race. Here's why: messageboxnews.com/p/why-kamala-h… 1. Harris won the first debate handily. Her favorability rating improved, but the horserace moved only a couple of points. There is more work to do, and another high-profile encounter that will break through the noise is smart.
messageboxnews.com/p/why-kamala-h…

Trump regularly appears on podcasts, YouTube shows, and with TikTok influencers as part of his campaign to target young men. Even though these appearances get millions of views, the press largely ignores them.

That's a problem.

Here's why
messageboxnews.com/p/how-and-why-… The most recent New York Times/Siena poll of the battleground states shows that women under 30 support Kamala Harris by a margin of 39 points while men of the same age support Trump by 13 points.

messageboxnews.com/p/how-and-why-…

On very little sleep and with a pit in my stomach, I wrote up my thoughts on last night's debate, Biden's performance, and what it might all mean in the coming days and weeks.
messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-… There is no point in sugarcoating it. If you believe the polls, Trump is on a trajectory to win. President Biden missed his biggest and best opportunity to change that dynamic by assuaging voters' concerns about his age.
messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-…

1. Last night, I wrote about HOW Dems (not named Joe Biden) should talk about Trump's conviction. I didn't realize there was a debate about IF Dems should talk about it. That's nuts. Here's why Dems should aggressively frame the verdict:
messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-sho… 2. Just ask yourself, how would Republicans handle it if Joe Biden were convicted of a misdemeanor? Would they turn the other cheek and tell people to respect the verdict before pivoting to inflation or another issue?
messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-sho…

Alito flying a flag to support the insurrection while making decisions about the election is why so many Americans have lost trust in the court. It's also an opportunity to reunite the anti-MAGA coalition. Here's why Dems should run against the Court messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-sho… In 2016, focusing on the vacant Supreme Court seat helped convince just enough Republicans who didn't like Trump to vote for him. The same could be true in 2024 a.s Biden tries to rebuild the coalition that helped him win messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-sho…

1. It was bizarrely something I wrote that led Joe Kahn, the editor of the NYT, to anger many people with his defense of the NYT's coverage of Trump. He misunderstood and mischaracterized what I (and many other critics) think. Here's my actual take: messageboxnews.com/p/more-thought… 2. What annoyed me was the suggestion that I (and others) want the NYT to turn into the"Xinhua News Agency or Pravda and put out a stream of stuff that’s very, very favorable to them." No one is suggesting that. It's defensive and dismissive. messageboxnews.com/p/more-thought…

New: The media environment has changed dramatically since 2020, possibly the biggest shift in the shortest amount of time in recent history. That shift is helping Trump and making life harder for Joe Biden messageboxnews.com/p/how-the-medi… It has never been more difficult for voters to follow the news. Social media used to be a major conduit for news, but Elon Musk rendered Twitter utterly unusable. Facebook, once the most dominant media platform in the world, moved away from politics. messageboxnews.com/p/how-the-medi…

1. NEW: Even though jury selection has just begun, defeatism is already infecting the coverage of Trump’s trial. No matter the verdict, Trump will suffer no meaningful political damage. I could not disagree more. Trump’s trial is a huge political problem for him. messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-t… 2. The general tone of 2024 political coverage is that everything is bad news for Biden and nothing hurts Trump. This is asinine. Trump needs to hold his 2020 voters and persuade some new ones to win. A criminal conviction does not help matters.
messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-t…

Last week,Trump went on a national radio to accusee Joe Biden of delivering the State of the Union while high on cocaine. Most of the media ignored this deranged accusation. The reasons why help explain how the press inadvertently normalizes the dangerously abnormal Trump. messageboxnews.com/p/why-the-pres… The coverage of the interview was emblematic of the press’s attitude towards Trump. He does a rally or interview filled with insane, incoherent ramblings and then the news clips the most coherent 30-45 seconds to air as part of the package.
messageboxnews.com/p/why-the-pres…

Ever since the State of the Union, there have been a bunch of national polls that show Biden inching ahead of Trump. Here's what I think is happening and why Biden has gained momentum in recent weeks: messageboxnews.com/p/are-bidens-p… 1. It's clear that Biden's State of the Union helped ease concerns about his age and increased enthusiasm, especially among his 2020 coalition. Bringing them home is the first - and most important - step to winning the race
messageboxnews.com/p/are-bidens-p…

The Special Counsel's report is a partisan hit job. Its characterizations of Biden don't match those relayed by everyone who talks to him, including GOPers. However, it speaks to Biden's biggest vulnerability. Therefore, it must be dealt with. Here's how: messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-… One thing that should not get lost is that Biden was exonerated. The report details the differences between Biden's cooperation with and Trump's obstruction of the probes into their handling of classified information. messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-…

1. Trump's win in Iowa may be the "largest ever," but it's actually pretty unimpressive when you consider that Trump is the defacto incumbent running against some subpar candidates. Here's why the Iowa results are actually evidence of Trump's weakness: messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-i… 2. Trump won Iowa by 10 points in 2016 and 2020. Demographically, it's one of the more MAGA-friendly states, yet only half of the state's most committed Republicans backed the former President. That seems more like weakness than strength to me. messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-i…

1. Democrats have a moral and political obligation to make Trump's plans to be a dictator on "day one" a centerpiece of the 2024 campaign, but how we talk about matters A LOT:

messageboxnews.com/p/how-to-talk-… 2. Bill Clinton once said, "When people feel uncertain, they'd rather have someone strong and wrong than weak and right." That statement is a perfect encapsulation of Trump's political appeal to a critical share of the electorate: messageboxnews.com/p/how-to-talk-…

Wanna beat Trump in 2024? Start by reminding voters that he is an unhinged, delusional clown with a fleeting gasp on reality. The polls show too many voters have forgotten. Here's how to do it:
messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-mus… In 2020, Biden had a 19-point advantage on temperament in the @nytimes polling. In 2023, it’s only four points. It's not like Trump has become more coherent, he's clearly gotten crazier. So the question is why: messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-mus…

Sen. Menendez has a right to due process, but he doesn't have a right to the full support of his party while he fights another corruption charge. Dems need to show voters that we are not the same as the GOP by calling on Menendez to resign ASAP messageboxnews.com/p/democrats-mu… Menendez is on the ballot next year. His presence in the Senate puts that seat at risk, makes life harder for other Dems running, and blurs our 2024 message about the GOP standing by Trump after 91 felony indictments. This is politically untenable messageboxnews.com/p/democrats-mu…

The press coverage of the 2024 race is starting to look a lot like 2016. Poll-driven coverage, focused on the horserace, is once again creating a dangerous false equivalence between Biden's age and Trump's crimes. messageboxnews.com/p/the-press-is… The media wants to be "balanced" but it's impossible to be “balanced' in a race between a man charged with 91 felonies and a decent, ethical man with a record of success. So, we get a lot of coverage that treats Biden's age as equal to Trump's crimes. messageboxnews.com/p/the-press-is…

On paper, the fact that Trump's lead in the primary goes up with every indictment seems absolutely deranged, but when you dig into the polls about what GOP voters really think and how they get their info, it makes complete sense: Here's why: messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-domin… 1. Trump is one of the biggest and clumsiest liars in history, but according to a recent @CBSNews poll, Trump voters trust Trump more than their family, religious leaders, or conservative media personalities. They believe Trump over the evidence. messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-domin…