1. A lot of the takes on Trump's SOTU look like this one from Politico - "Trump did what Republicans asked."

That seems like insanely credulous bullshit to me.
There is nothing in the polling data that suggests this speech was good for the GOP.
Here's why: 2. The thrust of the speech was that the economy was GREAT and prices were down. No one believes that. Nearly 6 in 10 think things are worse now than before Trump became POTUS, 3/4s don't like the economy, and majorities think Trump has made the econ worse. He sounded delusional

1. Everyone (except maybe Trump) knows that Trump's approval numbers are in the toilet and Republicans are headed for a brutal midterm. At the end of the day, the person most responsible for that fate is Stephen Miller. Let me explain 2. Affordability was always going to be a problem for Trump, but Miller's push to have ICE terrorize American communities and then lie about the people killed by ICE has turned immigration from Trump's greatest strength into a glaring weakness.

1. The results from the special election in Texas are even worse for Republicans than it looks.

Every Republican on the ballot should be scared shitless 2. It's not just the 31-point swing in Democrats' direction. It's the fact that this happened in a race where the GOP invested real time and money. Trump endorsed the incumbent, urged his supporters to vote for her, and the GOP well outspent the Democrats.

1. I understand the political risk and the substantive challenges, but Democrats must do everything they can to block the ICE funding bill in Congress.

You can’t call out the fascism of ICE's actions one day and then vote to fund them the next. 2. To do so would be to reinforce every negative image voters have of Democrats. They think we are weak, full of shit, and unwilling to back up our warnings about Trump with action that is commensurate with the gravity of those warnings

1. Many Dems worry that Trump will "cancel" the elections to avoid getting his ass kicked in 2026, but he doesn't have the power to do that. Trump has a different plan to rig elections in 2026 and beyond.

And it's already underway. 2. It begins with the mid-decade redistricting in Texas and elsewhere. Republicans hope to net enough seats to keep the House, which gives them control of the process for seating the winner of the 2028 Presidential election.

1. The GOP just passed the most unpopular piece of legislation in history. It could not only cost them the majority, but it might be a generational political error that could blow up the Trump coalition and reshape politics for the foreseeable future. 2. Everyone thinks Trump has remade the GOP in his image, but slashing health care and food stamps to pay for tax cuts for the rich is something Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney would have done a decade ago.

But while the policy is the same political context has changed.

1. Trump is desperately trying to avoid blame for the downturn in the economy since he took office. Trying to blame Biden simply isn't going to work. Here's why:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1919029836338577829

2. On the campaign trail, Trump made outlandish and absurd promises about how he would end inflation on day one. This is why so many voters who were skeptical of Trump ultimately voted for him.

We now have four new polls that show the same thing -- Donald Trump's approval rating sinking into the mid-40s. This would be one of the shortest honeymoons for a new president in recent history. The reasons for the dip are pretty clear. 1. people do not like his agenda. In the @washingtonpost poll, 43% oppose what Trump has done in his first month. Those who strongly oppose outnumber those who strongly support by 37 percent to 27 percent

Before all of the votes are counted, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on what @KamalaHarris and her team have achieved. Trump should be running away with it, but he isn’t because Harris has run a near-flawless campaign under the utmost pressure. messageboxnews.com/p/how-kamala-h… Incumbent parties around the world are getting crushed. 3/4s think the country is on the wrong track, 2/3s are pissed about the economy, and Biden's approval is in the low 40s. The fact that this is a toss-up is amazing. messageboxnews.com/p/how-kamala-h…

1. The pundits universally declared JD Vance the "winner" of the debate. Sure, he was slicker and smoother than an initially nervous Tim Walz. They are wrong and that assessment shows a real disconnect with the voters who will decide the election. messageboxnews.com/p/no-jd-vance-… 2. Folks like me would have loved to see Walx rhetorically eviscerate Vance and hold him to account for all of his shameless lies and blatant hypocrisy, but that's what the voters wanted. They view debates as opportunities to learn not gladiator combat
messageboxnews.com/p/no-jd-vance-…

Today, the @KamalaHarris campaign challenged Trump to another debate on CNN in late October. This is the right strategic move, and it shows that the Harris-Walz campaign is being appropriately aggressive in trying to close out the race. Here's why: messageboxnews.com/p/why-kamala-h… 1. Harris won the first debate handily. Her favorability rating improved, but the horserace moved only a couple of points. There is more work to do, and another high-profile encounter that will break through the noise is smart.
messageboxnews.com/p/why-kamala-h…

Trump regularly appears on podcasts, YouTube shows, and with TikTok influencers as part of his campaign to target young men. Even though these appearances get millions of views, the press largely ignores them.

That's a problem.

Here's why
messageboxnews.com/p/how-and-why-… The most recent New York Times/Siena poll of the battleground states shows that women under 30 support Kamala Harris by a margin of 39 points while men of the same age support Trump by 13 points.

messageboxnews.com/p/how-and-why-…

On very little sleep and with a pit in my stomach, I wrote up my thoughts on last night's debate, Biden's performance, and what it might all mean in the coming days and weeks.
messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-… There is no point in sugarcoating it. If you believe the polls, Trump is on a trajectory to win. President Biden missed his biggest and best opportunity to change that dynamic by assuaging voters' concerns about his age.
messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-…

1. Last night, I wrote about HOW Dems (not named Joe Biden) should talk about Trump's conviction. I didn't realize there was a debate about IF Dems should talk about it. That's nuts. Here's why Dems should aggressively frame the verdict:
messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-sho… 2. Just ask yourself, how would Republicans handle it if Joe Biden were convicted of a misdemeanor? Would they turn the other cheek and tell people to respect the verdict before pivoting to inflation or another issue?
messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-sho…

Alito flying a flag to support the insurrection while making decisions about the election is why so many Americans have lost trust in the court. It's also an opportunity to reunite the anti-MAGA coalition. Here's why Dems should run against the Court messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-sho… In 2016, focusing on the vacant Supreme Court seat helped convince just enough Republicans who didn't like Trump to vote for him. The same could be true in 2024 a.s Biden tries to rebuild the coalition that helped him win messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-sho…

1. It was bizarrely something I wrote that led Joe Kahn, the editor of the NYT, to anger many people with his defense of the NYT's coverage of Trump. He misunderstood and mischaracterized what I (and many other critics) think. Here's my actual take: messageboxnews.com/p/more-thought… 2. What annoyed me was the suggestion that I (and others) want the NYT to turn into the"Xinhua News Agency or Pravda and put out a stream of stuff that’s very, very favorable to them." No one is suggesting that. It's defensive and dismissive. messageboxnews.com/p/more-thought…

New: The media environment has changed dramatically since 2020, possibly the biggest shift in the shortest amount of time in recent history. That shift is helping Trump and making life harder for Joe Biden messageboxnews.com/p/how-the-medi… It has never been more difficult for voters to follow the news. Social media used to be a major conduit for news, but Elon Musk rendered Twitter utterly unusable. Facebook, once the most dominant media platform in the world, moved away from politics. messageboxnews.com/p/how-the-medi…

1. NEW: Even though jury selection has just begun, defeatism is already infecting the coverage of Trump’s trial. No matter the verdict, Trump will suffer no meaningful political damage. I could not disagree more. Trump’s trial is a huge political problem for him. messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-t… 2. The general tone of 2024 political coverage is that everything is bad news for Biden and nothing hurts Trump. This is asinine. Trump needs to hold his 2020 voters and persuade some new ones to win. A criminal conviction does not help matters.
messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-t…

Last week,Trump went on a national radio to accusee Joe Biden of delivering the State of the Union while high on cocaine. Most of the media ignored this deranged accusation. The reasons why help explain how the press inadvertently normalizes the dangerously abnormal Trump. messageboxnews.com/p/why-the-pres… The coverage of the interview was emblematic of the press’s attitude towards Trump. He does a rally or interview filled with insane, incoherent ramblings and then the news clips the most coherent 30-45 seconds to air as part of the package.
messageboxnews.com/p/why-the-pres…

Ever since the State of the Union, there have been a bunch of national polls that show Biden inching ahead of Trump. Here's what I think is happening and why Biden has gained momentum in recent weeks: messageboxnews.com/p/are-bidens-p… 1. It's clear that Biden's State of the Union helped ease concerns about his age and increased enthusiasm, especially among his 2020 coalition. Bringing them home is the first - and most important - step to winning the race
messageboxnews.com/p/are-bidens-p…

The Special Counsel's report is a partisan hit job. Its characterizations of Biden don't match those relayed by everyone who talks to him, including GOPers. However, it speaks to Biden's biggest vulnerability. Therefore, it must be dealt with. Here's how: messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-… One thing that should not get lost is that Biden was exonerated. The report details the differences between Biden's cooperation with and Trump's obstruction of the probes into their handling of classified information. messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-…