1. NEW: Even though jury selection has just begun, defeatism is already infecting the coverage of Trump’s trial. No matter the verdict, Trump will suffer no meaningful political damage. I could not disagree more. Trump’s trial is a huge political problem for him. messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-t… 2. The general tone of 2024 political coverage is that everything is bad news for Biden and nothing hurts Trump. This is asinine. Trump needs to hold his 2020 voters and persuade some new ones to win. A criminal conviction does not help matters.
messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-t…

Last week,Trump went on a national radio to accusee Joe Biden of delivering the State of the Union while high on cocaine. Most of the media ignored this deranged accusation. The reasons why help explain how the press inadvertently normalizes the dangerously abnormal Trump. messageboxnews.com/p/why-the-pres… The coverage of the interview was emblematic of the press’s attitude towards Trump. He does a rally or interview filled with insane, incoherent ramblings and then the news clips the most coherent 30-45 seconds to air as part of the package.
messageboxnews.com/p/why-the-pres…

Ever since the State of the Union, there have been a bunch of national polls that show Biden inching ahead of Trump. Here's what I think is happening and why Biden has gained momentum in recent weeks: messageboxnews.com/p/are-bidens-p… 1. It's clear that Biden's State of the Union helped ease concerns about his age and increased enthusiasm, especially among his 2020 coalition. Bringing them home is the first - and most important - step to winning the race
messageboxnews.com/p/are-bidens-p…

The Special Counsel's report is a partisan hit job. Its characterizations of Biden don't match those relayed by everyone who talks to him, including GOPers. However, it speaks to Biden's biggest vulnerability. Therefore, it must be dealt with. Here's how: messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-… One thing that should not get lost is that Biden was exonerated. The report details the differences between Biden's cooperation with and Trump's obstruction of the probes into their handling of classified information. messageboxnews.com/p/thoughts-on-…

1. Trump's win in Iowa may be the "largest ever," but it's actually pretty unimpressive when you consider that Trump is the defacto incumbent running against some subpar candidates. Here's why the Iowa results are actually evidence of Trump's weakness: messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-i… 2. Trump won Iowa by 10 points in 2016 and 2020. Demographically, it's one of the more MAGA-friendly states, yet only half of the state's most committed Republicans backed the former President. That seems more like weakness than strength to me. messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps-i…

1. Democrats have a moral and political obligation to make Trump's plans to be a dictator on "day one" a centerpiece of the 2024 campaign, but how we talk about matters A LOT:

messageboxnews.com/p/how-to-talk-… 2. Bill Clinton once said, "When people feel uncertain, they'd rather have someone strong and wrong than weak and right." That statement is a perfect encapsulation of Trump's political appeal to a critical share of the electorate: messageboxnews.com/p/how-to-talk-…

Wanna beat Trump in 2024? Start by reminding voters that he is an unhinged, delusional clown with a fleeting gasp on reality. The polls show too many voters have forgotten. Here's how to do it:
messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-mus… In 2020, Biden had a 19-point advantage on temperament in the @nytimes polling. In 2023, it’s only four points. It's not like Trump has become more coherent, he's clearly gotten crazier. So the question is why: messageboxnews.com/p/why-dems-mus…

Sen. Menendez has a right to due process, but he doesn't have a right to the full support of his party while he fights another corruption charge. Dems need to show voters that we are not the same as the GOP by calling on Menendez to resign ASAP messageboxnews.com/p/democrats-mu… Menendez is on the ballot next year. His presence in the Senate puts that seat at risk, makes life harder for other Dems running, and blurs our 2024 message about the GOP standing by Trump after 91 felony indictments. This is politically untenable messageboxnews.com/p/democrats-mu…

The press coverage of the 2024 race is starting to look a lot like 2016. Poll-driven coverage, focused on the horserace, is once again creating a dangerous false equivalence between Biden's age and Trump's crimes. messageboxnews.com/p/the-press-is… The media wants to be "balanced" but it's impossible to be “balanced' in a race between a man charged with 91 felonies and a decent, ethical man with a record of success. So, we get a lot of coverage that treats Biden's age as equal to Trump's crimes. messageboxnews.com/p/the-press-is…

On paper, the fact that Trump's lead in the primary goes up with every indictment seems absolutely deranged, but when you dig into the polls about what GOP voters really think and how they get their info, it makes complete sense: Here's why: messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-domin… 1. Trump is one of the biggest and clumsiest liars in history, but according to a recent @CBSNews poll, Trump voters trust Trump more than their family, religious leaders, or conservative media personalities. They believe Trump over the evidence. messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-domin…

Impeaching Biden is likely to be a political disaster for the House Republicans. Here's why: messageboxnews.com/p/mccarthys-id… 1. Using impeachment as an explicit bargaining chip to buy off MAGA Republican votes is truly one of the dumbest ideas any Republican has come up -- and that is saying a lot.
messageboxnews.com/p/mccarthys-id…

If you ignore the buffoonery and squint hard enough at what Trump is doing, you can see — wait for it — an actual strategy to beat Ron DeSantis. And it’s not the worst strategy, either. messagebox.substack.com/p/trump-has-a-… Trump's recent education platform and his attacks on DeSantis's COVID record are an attempt to nullify the Fl Gov's culture war advantage. messagebox.substack.com/p/trump-has-a-…

Dating back to Richard Nixon, the Right Wing has tried to rig the bestseller lists to promote its message, drive the political conversation, and create the illusion of widespread support for discredited ideas. Here's how and why they do it: messagebox.substack.com/p/how-the-righ… I am obsessed with this dynamic because my own book comes out in a week and I am competing with the likes of Bill O'Reilly and Kellyanne Conway. Progressive authors have to work harder than our counterparts on the right strandbooks.com/campaign/campa…

The Build Back Better Bill is our best - and perhaps last - chance to take bold climate action. Blow this chance and we may not get another one before it is too late. It's time for the centrists to step and do the right thing messagebox.substack.com/p/memo-to-cent… Obamacare only passed bc a group of members in tough districts were willing to step up and do the right thing. That level of patriotism is sorely lacking among Manchin, Gottheimer, Sinema et al. It could cost us dearly messagebox.substack.com/p/memo-to-cent…

Political punditry is falling back into some bad habits by presuming that every problem is the result of some strategic miscalculation by the President. Folks from the Obama era remember this as the Green Lantern Theory. Here's why it's dumb and dangerous. messagebox.substack.com/p/the-return-o… The myth of the all-powerful president can lead to disappointment and demobilization. Failure on anything becomes a reason to disengage from politics, as opposed to doubling down to punish the obstructionists and make progress more likely. messagebox.substack.com/p/the-return-o…

John Boehner's bad faith revisionist history book tour continues to give hope to a group of media members and moderate Democratic Senators that a less Trump GOP is right around the corner. It's time to give up the naive dream and come to terms with reality
messagebox.substack.com/p/memo-to-the-… Hoping against hope that the GOP is more Mitt Romney than Marjorie Taylor Greene allows Dems to defer tough decisions on voting rights and the filibuster and normalizes dangerous behavior. messagebox.substack.com/p/memo-to-the-…

Joe Biden ran on a message of unity. Less than 72 hours into his presidency, the unity message is being weaponized against him with bad faith arguments from Republicans and others. Here's whats happening and what we need to push back on. messagebox.substack.com/p/unity-is-alr… To be clear,
- Biden pursuing his agenda is not divisive.
- Biden undoing Trump's policies is not divisive
- Biden rooting out Trump hacks burrowed into the govt is not divisive

No one that makes these arguments should be taken seriously messagebox.substack.com/p/unity-is-alr…

The insurrection was caused by more than the post-election lies of Trump et al. It is the result of a growing political cancer. We need a comprehensive response to ensure this never happens again. Here are some ideas on what that looks like:
messagebox.substack.com/p/a-proportion… 1. Trump must be impeached and removed. It's an open and shut case. Any member that votes against is putting their narrow partisan interest over their oath of office. messagebox.substack.com/p/a-proportion…

On its face, the Hawley/Cruz challenge to the election results makes no sense. It makes the whole party look ridiculous and probably hurts in Georgia, but it needs to be viewed as pretext for a huge push for more voter suppression laws in the next 2 years messagebox.substack.com/p/whats-really… To be clear, this effort is no less ridiculous than a bunch of Senators demanding an audit of the moon landing or the roundness of the Earth. messagebox.substack.com/p/whats-really…

The COVID Relief deal was woefully insufficient, absolutely necessary, and an indictment of divided government. messagebox.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-… The success Democrats had in bringing Republicans to the table by hammering them as callous corporatists on the campaign trail is a sign that economic populist arguments against the GOP could have more impact with Trump fading into the background messagebox.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-…

Today's Message Box looks at the state of the Democratic Party brand in 2020 and beyond, whether Dems have a brand problem, and what we can do about it.

messagebox.substack.com/p/the-democrat… Democratic policies are more popular than Republican policies. The Democratic Party is more popular than the Republican Party, but that hasn't translated into a success down ballot. Here's why and some thoughts on what we can do about it messagebox.substack.com/p/the-democrat…