Thread by @SimonWDC

As someone who has a bit of experience working in the Hispanic vote space, I've been intrigued by the stories about Biden struggling a bit with Hispanics.

To be honest I was skeptical given Trump's record, but let's take a look. (Short thread).

First, the heavily Mexican-American parts of the US have seen a huge swing towards Dems since Trump took over the GOP. In '18 Ds had big Congressional wins in SW, West. CO, NM no longer targeted states, NV holding, AZ leaning D, TX in play. Big change.

ndn.org/blog/2019/02/n…

Next, Dems had one of their best showings with Hispanics in the modern era in 2018, winning by 40 points in the House races, 69-29. HRC won them by 38 points in 2016, 66-28.

Dems also had their best showing with young people in the modern era in 2018. ndn.org/blog/2018/11/a…

Where things didn't go so well was in Florida. Dem candidates dramatically underperformed in Florida with Hispanics in 2018, while improving everywhere else.

The Florida Hispanic electorate is unique, and shouldn't be lumped in w/other states. ndn.org/blog/2018/11/a…

Polling Hispanics is very hard, and many national polls have small subsamples, or don't use bi-lingual phoners. So I think the best way to gauge what's happening here is to look at the 3 Presidential states with large Hispanic populations - AZ, FL and NV.

Let's start with AZ. Clinton won Hispanics in 2016 61-31 (30 pts). In a new @EquisResearch poll Biden leads Trump 62-29 (33 pts), and a new Monmouth poll out today has him up 63-33 with Hispanics.

So, Biden is about where Clinton was in 2016.

https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1305677650434961408

Florida. Clinton won Hispanics 62-35 (27 pts) in 2016, and the Dem nominee for gov won them 54-44 in 2018 (ugh).

The new Monmouth poll has Biden leading 58-32 with Hispanics, a margin similar to Clinton's in 2016.

monmouth.edu/polling-instit…

Not a lot of NV data right now, but the 1 poll we have from NYT/Siena suggests Biden could be underperforming there. His non-white share is lower than Clinton 2016, and he's only up there statewide 46-42.

Campaign was wise to start advertising there.
nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/…

So, this doesn't feel like Biden has a "big problem" with Hispanics. He's tracking Clinton in AZ, FL and leading in both states; TX is in play; CO, NM aren't. It's possible he has work to do in NV, but the campaign seems to be addressing it now.

A few final points. Should Biden be doing better given how much COVID has ravaged the Hispanic community, Trump's racism? Perhaps, but the general election campaign has just begun. Let's see what they can do - their new Spanish FL ads this week look smart.
cnn.com/2020/09/16/pol…

I also think it's possible that many younger Americans, and there will be a lot of them in this election, are still not yet checked in, still remain undecided abt whom they will vote for, whether to vote. There just may be a lot of young Hispanics who still need to be talked to.

This is an issue which hasn't gotten enough attention this year. We had a very high turnout midterm, and turnout among younger Americans went way up. This means there are more irregular and first time voters in the electorate than usual, many more who may be late deciders.

In the last Quinnipiac poll, 6% of the electorate was not supporting one of the two candidates. It broke down as
65+ 4% not w/Biden or Trump
50-64 3%
35-49 5%
18-34 10%

poll.qu.edu/national/relea…

Would be interested in what others think about this, including pollster friends.

To me it suggests that the Biden campaign should be spending hard now on younger Americans, and given that they support him by 20-30 pts, there could still be a lot of Biden vote out there.

I just think there are a lot of new voters, and potential new voters, in the electorate this time, including many many young Hispanics. If Biden can win them over in the coming days he may be able to pick up another 1-3 pts and put the race away. But it has to be a priority.

Don't think there's been nearly enough attention on what's happening with under 45 year old voters in America. They've broken sharply towards the Dems in the Trump era, and there a lot of them. Here's some of our thinking about what's happening: medium.com/@Simon_Rosenbe…

OK, it wasn't a short thread. Sorry.

Yes, @RubenGallego is correct. It's true that even if Biden just gets Clinton's numbers w/Hispanics he'll gain votes as in most states the Hispanic population is growing rapidly. To prevent that from happening Trump has TO IMPROVE fr his '16 performance.

https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/status/1306668114847969281

If you are looking to dive deeper into the importance of the Hispanic vote here's a great new resource from @davidplouffe and @AmandiOnAir.

https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/1306651750762295296

New polling from NYT/Siena shows Biden/Dems in process of finally turning AZ into a lean blue state.

https://twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/1306927667997011972