Traditionally, I always watch the US President's state of the union address, while I ignore the address of the President of the European Commission. This year, I did the opposite & yesterday I was richly awarded by Ursula von der Leyen. ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Her start: "One of the most courageous minds of our times, Andrei Sakharov – a man so admired by this House
- always spoke of his unshakeable belief in the hidden strength of the human spirit.
In these last six months, Europeans have shown how strong that human spirit really is."
She focused on human values: "We are inspired by their empathy, bravery and sense of duty – and I want to start this speech by paying tribute to them all."
"This will show Europeans that our Union is there to protect all."
"We must tear down the barriers of the Single Market. We must cut red tape. We must step up implementation and enforcement. And we must restore the four freedoms – in full and as fast as possible.
The linchpin of this is a fully functioning Schengen area of free movement."
Remarkably, von der Leyen did not even mention the US, but stated: "We might not always agree with recent decisions by the White House. But we will always cherish the transatlantic alliance – based on shared values and history, and an unbreakable bond between our people."
"we will propose to extend the list of EU crimes to all forms of hate crime and hate speech – whether because of race, religion, gender or sexuality.
Hate is hate – and no one should have to put up with it."
von der Leyen stands for a new EU commitments for values: "Be it in Hong Kong, Moscow or Minsk: Europe must take a clear and swift position.
I want to say it loud and clear: the European Union is on the side of the people of Belarus."
I just hope that the EU really (finally!) acts accordingly. This was a very inspiring speech.
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Gideon Rachman: "Trump risks turning the US into a rogue state"
"The forcible or coerced takeover of a country by a larger neighbour is the biggest alarm bell in world politics. It is a signal that a rogue state is on the march." ft.com/content/392260…
Gideon Rachman: "Attacks on small countries triggered the first and second world wars."
Trump's "claims that many Canadians would love to join the US are also delusional. The idea was rejected by 82 per cent of Canadians in a recent poll."
What a world!
We are all waiting for the disaster Donald Trump to be inaugurated on January 20.
What catastrophe will he cause first? 1. Trying to imperialistically seize Canada, Greenland & the Panama Canal? 2. Impose skyhigh tariffs on friendly countries?
3. Deport 11.7 million unregistered immigrants who support US food production, Hospitality & construction? 4. Damage US hi-tech industry by restricting H1-B visas for skilled engineers further?
5. Cut taxes further on billionaires and large corporations to enrich billionaires, such as himself and his cabinet, even more? 6. Slash Social Security and Medicare (only benefiting the American people) to finance the billionaire tax cuts?
Trump economic policy appears nothing but folly:
Overheating leading to high inflation, high interest rate, labor shortage, larger budget deficit and bigger public debt.
Initially, economic growth may stay strong, but it is not sustainable.
A mass expulsion of workers in agriculture, hospitality & construction will inevitably lead to higher food and restaurant prices, which will drive inflation.
Trump has promised massive tax cuts, especially for billionaires and corporates. If he really managed to get that through Congress in 2025, the already huge US federal budget deficit of 6.6% of GDP will become truly disastrous, because the Musk budget cuts are unrealistic.
Suddenly, the US stock market has soured on the Trump presidency. The most obvious explanation is that Fed is not likely to cut the interest rate as much as anticipated, since inflation just rose. But this is hardly the full explanation./1
Trump's policies are all likely to boost inflation: 1. Kicking out millions of immigrant workers when the US has full employment (4.1% unemployment) = wage inflation. 2. Tariffs raise prices (or depress other currencies). 3. Tax cuts boost the huge budget deficit now 6.6% of GDP.
On top of this, Trump nominates 4 incompetent madhatters to top government jobs, showing all that he is completely incompetent & unsuited to be president, just like the last time around.
Strangely, many take Biden's admirable normality as a given. It is not./3
The legacy of Angela Merkel is suitably dissipating. 1. The weeded out strong people, such as Friedrich Merz. 2. During 16 years she pursued no structural reforms. 3. During the euro crisis in 2010 she sat & did nothing for as long as possible, just bailing out the German banks.
4. She supported Putin's geopolitical Nord Stream 2 project, which was designed to attack Ukraine, while claiming that it was only commercial. 5. Merkel assisted Putin with the Minsk process, facilitating his full-scale attack in 2022.
6. Merkel refused to invite Ukraine to NATO in 2008 (together with Sarkozy) & set the German non-invitation policy. 7. Merkel refused to provide Ukraine with the necessary military support. 8. Merkel completely neglected Germany's defense.
Finally, Russian economic policy discussion has come alive. After Chair of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina raised the interest rate to 21% - inflation is 8.7% year over year, so the real interest rate is extremely high at 12%
Now, 3 top Russian oligarchs have come out protesting against this high interest rate. They are Oleg Deripaska (who is rather outspoken), Alexei Mordashov & Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec. They claim these rates will cause mass bankrutpcies & want to oust Nabiullina.
Sergei Chemezov is by far most important. He is the main beneficiary of the war in Ukraine & the ouster of Defense Minister Shoigu. He probably controls 80% of Russia's armaments industry because he served with Putin in the KGB in Dresden - his sole merit.