Traditionally, I always watch the US President's state of the union address, while I ignore the address of the President of the European Commission. This year, I did the opposite & yesterday I was richly awarded by Ursula von der Leyen. ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Her start: "One of the most courageous minds of our times, Andrei Sakharov – a man so admired by this House
- always spoke of his unshakeable belief in the hidden strength of the human spirit.
In these last six months, Europeans have shown how strong that human spirit really is."
She focused on human values: "We are inspired by their empathy, bravery and sense of duty – and I want to start this speech by paying tribute to them all."
"This will show Europeans that our Union is there to protect all."
"We must tear down the barriers of the Single Market. We must cut red tape. We must step up implementation and enforcement. And we must restore the four freedoms – in full and as fast as possible.
The linchpin of this is a fully functioning Schengen area of free movement."
Remarkably, von der Leyen did not even mention the US, but stated: "We might not always agree with recent decisions by the White House. But we will always cherish the transatlantic alliance – based on shared values and history, and an unbreakable bond between our people."
"we will propose to extend the list of EU crimes to all forms of hate crime and hate speech – whether because of race, religion, gender or sexuality.
Hate is hate – and no one should have to put up with it."
von der Leyen stands for a new EU commitments for values: "Be it in Hong Kong, Moscow or Minsk: Europe must take a clear and swift position.
I want to say it loud and clear: the European Union is on the side of the people of Belarus."
I just hope that the EU really (finally!) acts accordingly. This was a very inspiring speech.
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Suddenly, the US stock market has soured on the Trump presidency. The most obvious explanation is that Fed is not likely to cut the interest rate as much as anticipated, since inflation just rose. But this is hardly the full explanation./1
Trump's policies are all likely to boost inflation: 1. Kicking out millions of immigrant workers when the US has full employment (4.1% unemployment) = wage inflation. 2. Tariffs raise prices (or depress other currencies). 3. Tax cuts boost the huge budget deficit now 6.6% of GDP.
On top of this, Trump nominates 4 incompetent madhatters to top government jobs, showing all that he is completely incompetent & unsuited to be president, just like the last time around.
Strangely, many take Biden's admirable normality as a given. It is not./3
The legacy of Angela Merkel is suitably dissipating. 1. The weeded out strong people, such as Friedrich Merz. 2. During 16 years she pursued no structural reforms. 3. During the euro crisis in 2010 she sat & did nothing for as long as possible, just bailing out the German banks.
4. She supported Putin's geopolitical Nord Stream 2 project, which was designed to attack Ukraine, while claiming that it was only commercial. 5. Merkel assisted Putin with the Minsk process, facilitating his full-scale attack in 2022.
6. Merkel refused to invite Ukraine to NATO in 2008 (together with Sarkozy) & set the German non-invitation policy. 7. Merkel refused to provide Ukraine with the necessary military support. 8. Merkel completely neglected Germany's defense.
Finally, Russian economic policy discussion has come alive. After Chair of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina raised the interest rate to 21% - inflation is 8.7% year over year, so the real interest rate is extremely high at 12%
Now, 3 top Russian oligarchs have come out protesting against this high interest rate. They are Oleg Deripaska (who is rather outspoken), Alexei Mordashov & Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec. They claim these rates will cause mass bankrutpcies & want to oust Nabiullina.
Sergei Chemezov is by far most important. He is the main beneficiary of the war in Ukraine & the ouster of Defense Minister Shoigu. He probably controls 80% of Russia's armaments industry because he served with Putin in the KGB in Dresden - his sole merit.
Seldom has the US seemed more hypocritical than now: 1. Ukraine has been attacked & defends itself, but the US does not give it the arms it needs & tells it not to defend itself against Russia bases. Ukraine obeys to the letter.
2. Israel kills tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians with US weapons & does everything contrary to US desires. The US delivers more arms & blocks justified international protests against Israel's behavior.
3. The US forced Ukraine to give up its plentiful nukes in 1994 to Russia and "assured" Ukraine's security, but did nothing when Russia attacked in 2014 and 2022.
When Iraq occupied Kuwait in 1990, the US sent 500,000 US soldiers & thousands of tanks because of oil...
I am no military expert, but I listen often to generals Breedlove & Hodges as well as Ian Brzezinski & Fred Kagan, which I wish the Biden administration would do as well. 1. The US compelled Ukraine to a hopeless counteroffensive in 2023...
The US demanded the offensive & told all what it was supposed to do, so the Russians built up their defenses. The US did not deliver any air support & a minimum of ATACMS. It made Ukraine bound to fail. Presumably the US sieve passed on all info to Russia.
2. The Biden administration has hold back the Ukrainians from attacking the Russian bases from which the Russians attack the whole of Ukraine, notably civilians. This is contrary to the UN Charter Article 51 on the right of self-defense. This is unacceptable.
We receive so little accurate information from the Kremlin that the most reliable method is old-style Kremlinology, checking photos, meetings & official decisions. The picture is pretty clear & damaging for Putin.
1. About a dozen generals & top defense officials have been arrested by the FSB for corruption, but corruption is no crime in Russia but a requirement. This indicates that the whole military top is out & in particular Shoigu & Gerasimov, though still in high places.
2. As a consequence, the military does as little as possible & Putin does not trust them but calls on the FSB to handle the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk oblast as "an anti-terrorist operation," not recognizing that this is a war requiring military rather than assassins.