Minneapolis city councilors (the same management that wants to disband the police) is telling the city police chief that citizens are terrorized (by other citizens) as the police is absence & wants help & wants to increase funding for the police.🙄
Did you know that South Korea exports more to the US now than it does to China?
Actually, it isn't alone. A lot of Asian countries, due to supply chain reshuffling and also geopolitics and industrial policies, are exporting now more to US than China.
Why is South Korea doing more trade with a country far away than a country next door?
First, growth of exports to the US is faster than exports to China. In fact, China hasn't been importing much more and it is Korea that has been importing more from China for goods such as intermediate goods etc.
This has raised a big concern in Korea that China is a competitor & it's hard for SK to compete with its industrial policy and subsidies.
And so South Korea has 1 lever it can pull that is better than China - GEOPOLITICS. South Korea is an ally to the US. And as a country w/ a US FTA, it is being favored.
Whether it's the Chips Act or the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the whole point is to exclude China.
Indonesia elects a new president in a week. The leading candidate is riding high on Jokonomics, or the continuation of his policy & popularity, as Jokowi's eldest son is VP.
Prabowo promises 8% average GDP growth or Jokonomics. How realistic & what is Jokonomics anyway?
While people believe that Prabowo is the best bet of doing more of what popular Jokowi has done for Indonesia in the past decade & he promises the highest growth, Jokowi 10-year only produced 4.2% GDP growth on average. Stripping out 2020 (Covid), it's 4.9%. No where near 8% 👈
Indonesia elects a new president next week to replace Jokowi. The leading candidate - Prabowo - is riding the president's coat tail as many hope that he is the best hope for continuation. But what is Jokonomics exactly? From 2014 to 2023, Indonesia grew on average 4.2% per yr👈.
If we strip out 2020, which economy contracted, then under Jokowi, the economy grew 4.9% on average (4.2% if we don't strip it out).
So that's sub 5%. In fact, GDP barely deviates from 5% level. So why do people think that Prabowo is the key to escape the middle income trap?
Pres Jokowi's biggest accomplishments come from the fiscal side. Indonesia got investment grade in 2017. By weaning Indonesia slowly off expensive energy subsides, the expenditure side was contained. And with the commodity boom, Indonesia fiscal positions were leaner than most.
As we bid adieu to 2023, which was an abysmal economic year for EM Asia (India an exception), hope springs eternal as we look to 2024 with key drags dissipating.
The great expectations of China lifting the region via imports and tourism disappointed as demand faded, weighed down by property market woes & weak investment.
From Korea to Vietnam, exports to China crashed, dragging down overall shipment, hurting big traders the most.
The goods deflation felt globally, especially in ICT, hit big traders hard. Commodity exporters such as Indonesia too didn't like the downward price trend.
Despite stronger US growth, China downward import growth dragged Asian exports.
Investors are disappointed by the lack of stimulus to revive the animal spirit.
That is because Chinese data is still good according to the Chinese government. In fact, I imagine they are thinking, "Despite our tightening of real estate, cutting off services, GDP still grows👈"
Demand is deflated but supply is ever more growing, as per Caixin services and manufacturing. And let's not forget, GDP in Q3 surprised on the upside. So the economy is doing fine! Too fine for a big stimulus. Of course that is bad news for the financial sector & investors.👈
Now, the way to read this is to think, at some point, and by that I mean now, Chinese producers will have to sell all the goods that they produce with LIMITED DEMAND ONSHORE.
OFFSHORE selling is all the buzz. Must export deflation. Must do it ASAP.