As Putin and his proxies continue to interfere in our electoral process, Im surprised by how the seem to ignore a possible outcome in November -- a Biden victory. THREAD 1/
If Putin continues to escalate his disinformation activities over the next 2 months, and then Biden wins, do they think the new president will do nothing in response? That's not my assessment of my former WH colleague. 2/
If he wants to respond, Biden will have on his side the Intelligence Community, whose work has been ignored by Trump. They have collected tons of information on Putin and his cronies. One response would be declassification of some of these materials. 3/
Russians should look closely at the Mueller report to see the tremendous capabilities of our IC. And that was just a taste. 4/
New sanctions of course is a second way to respond. If the Putin intervention is large, President Biden would have to respond. 5/
But maybe Putin doesn't care. Im sure some of his cronies do. But maybe Putin wants more confrontation with the US & thus is willing to take even riskier actions before November. Your thoughts? 6/ END THREAD
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Many compare Trump to Putin. I have, too. But the moment right now feels more like the Yeltsin era, when Russia's oligarchs took advantage of an older & somewhat incapacitated leader to privatize the state for their own interests. I wrote about this at length in the 1990s. THREAD 1/
See for instance, McFaul, “Russia's ‘Privatized’ State as an Impediment to Democratic Consolidation,” Part I, Security Dialogue, Vol. 29, No. 2 (Spring 1998), pp. 25-33. 2/
and McFaul, “Russia's ‘Privatized’ State as an Impediment to Democratic Consolidation,” Part II, Security Dialogue, Vol. 29, No. 3 (Summer 1998), pp. 219-236. 3/
I hope future members of Trump's national security team are students of John Mearsheimer, especially when dealing with Putin. THREAD 1/
In his classic The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Professor Mearsheimer wrote (p. 164),
"appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and, therefore, is a fanciful and dangerous strategy." 2/
"It is unlikely to transform a dangerous force into a kinder, gentler opponent, much less a peace-loving state." 3/
"A second Trump presidency will usher in a new chaotic, uncertain, and violent era, both at home and abroad. Some believe that’s ok, that we need an era of disruption to radically undermine the status quo at home and abroad. I don’t." 1/ THREAD
"As an academic, I have studied revolutions for over four decades. Some generate better outcomes for societies that live through them. Most do not. Instead, they produce sharp economic downturns, civil wars, dictatorships, and interstate conflicts." 2/
"America needs peaceful reform, not violent revolution. Our economy, the envy of the world, needs some reforms, not massive disruption. Our democracy needs gradual improvements, not a chaotic breakdown." 3/
"In the upcoming U.S. presidential election, there are legitimate policy differences between Vice President Kamala Harris and Mr. Donald Trump, over which reasonable people will debate and disagree." THREAD 1/
"For instance, the two candidates have different views on taxation. I can understand why affluent voters might support Trump over Harris. That’s rational, even if I disagree with them." 2/
"I can also understand why tech entrepreneurs might think that Trump will be better for them regarding regulation, even if I think they’re wrong, because I may value competition more than they do. But that’s an honest policy disagreement." 3/
"Former President Trump ... blamed the United States for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and called Zelenskyy “the greatest salesman in history” because “every time he comes to the country, he walks away with 100 billion.” THREAD 1/
"While Trump rightly talked about the tremendous loss of life and property in Ukraine as a result of war, he never once blamed Putin for such killing and destruction." 2/
"That has been a consistent pattern for Trump for almost a decade now. He doesn’t criticize Putin and instead admires his strength and justifies his barbaric actions. " 3/
The differences between candidates regarding foreign policy in this presidential election are very clear. That is not always the case. But this time around, voters have a very clear choice. Harris and Trump have very different approaches. 1/ THREAD
Harris believes in engagement and world leadership, supports allies and multilateralism, champions economic statecraft that benefits all Americans, and aspires to advance our democratic values. 2/
Trump trumpets isolationism, pursues pugnacious unilateralism, does not value allies, embraces dictators, and ignores the promotion of democratic values. 3/