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Michael McFaul Profile picture
@McFaul
Sep 18, 2020 • 6 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
As Putin and his proxies continue to interfere in our electoral process, Im surprised by how the seem to ignore a possible outcome in November -- a Biden victory. THREAD 1/
If Putin continues to escalate his disinformation activities over the next 2 months, and then Biden wins, do they think the new president will do nothing in response? That's not my assessment of my former WH colleague. 2/
If he wants to respond, Biden will have on his side the Intelligence Community, whose work has been ignored by Trump. They have collected tons of information on Putin and his cronies. One response would be declassification of some of these materials. 3/
Russians should look closely at the Mueller report to see the tremendous capabilities of our IC. And that was just a taste. 4/
New sanctions of course is a second way to respond. If the Putin intervention is large, President Biden would have to respond. 5/
But maybe Putin doesn't care. Im sure some of his cronies do. But maybe Putin wants more confrontation with the US & thus is willing to take even riskier actions before November. Your thoughts? 6/ END THREAD

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More from @McFaul

Michael McFaul Profile picture
Dec 19, 2024
I remain skeptical that conditions are ripe for a deal. If Trump threatens to cut aid to Ukraine, Putin will be emboldened to keep fighting, not stop his invasion. But dont believe me. Read
John Mearsheimer. 1/ THREAD
Mearsheimer wrote in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,

"appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and, therefore, is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous force into a kinder, gentler opponent, much less a peace-loving state. Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet, not shrink, an aggressor’s appetite for conquest. … " 2/
"Because great powers are programmed for offense, an appeased state is likely to interpret a power concession by another state as a sign of weakness…The appeased stats are then likely to continue pushing for more concessions… In short, appeasement is likely to make a dangerous rival more, not less, dangerous. "(p. 164) 3/
Read 5 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Dec 17, 2024
"Skeptics argue that Putin will never accept Ukraine’s joining NATO. But Ukraine and NATO members do not need to ask for Putin’s permission. Putin has no place in negotiations between Ukraine and the alliance. Allowing him to disrupt or put off these deliberations would be a sign of American weakness not only to Moscow but also to Beijing." 1/ THREAD
"These skeptics also grossly overestimate Putin’s concern about Ukraine’s joining NATO. Putin did not invade Ukraine in 2022 to stop NATO’s expansion. In the run-up to 2022, NATO membership for Ukraine was a distant dream, and everyone in Brussels, Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington knew it." 2/
"Putin’s invasion had other objectives: to unite Ukrainians and Russians into one Slavic nation, overthrow Ukraine’s democratic and Western-oriented government, and demilitarize the country. Putin barely raised an eyebrow when Finland and Sweden joined NATO in 2023 and 2024, even though Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia. " 3/
Read 7 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
"Given his past skepticism about aid to Ukraine and NATO more generally, it will not be easy to persuade him to take this path. Such a deal, however, supports several of Trump’s objectives." THREAD 1/
By bringing Ukraine into NATO, Trump could achieve a significant victory for one of his foreign policy priorities: burden-sharing. After joining NATO, Ukraine’s armed forces would overnight become the best and most experienced European army in the alliance. Ukrainian soldiers could be deployed to other frontline states, allowing Washington to reduce its own troop commitments." 2/"
"Ukraine could also supply other NATO allies, especially those that share a border with Russia, with the air, sea, and land drones that the Ukrainian military has mastered in its defense of the country. Trump could explain to the American people that Ukraine’s membership in NATO would allow the United States to spend less on European defense and free up resources to contain China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Such a move should win the support of the many China hawks in Trump’s new administration." 3/
Read 7 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
Before he leaves office, "President Biden must transfer all assets of the Russian Central Bank currently held in American banks to the government of Ukraine or an international foundation committed to Ukrainian reconstruction." 1/ THREAD
"These funds amount to some $300 billion, of which the most significant share has been seized by the Europeans. These funds should be transferred as soon as possible to help finance the Ukrainian government and reconstruction." 2/
"Considering that Russia’s unprovoked war has inflicted hundreds of billions of dollars of damage on the Ukrainian economy, it’s only just that the international community should impose some of these costs on the Russian state itself. How could any president or prime minister ever give these funds back to Putin?" 3/
Read 6 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024
Let's all stop repeating Putin's bs line about the "threat of Ukraine joining NATO" as the reason he was compelled to invade. Its complete hogwash. There is no data to support this hypothesis. THREAD 1/
I was in the Obama administration for the first 5 years. We had NO plans to expand NATO to Ukraine. Maybe we should have had a plan. But we did not. That is a fact. In 2010, Yanukovich was elected president & had no interest in pursuing a NATO invite. That is a fact too. 2/
Then Trump was in power from 2017-2021. Trump had NO plans to give an invite. He didnt even like NATO! He did not do a single thing to expand NATO to Ukraine. Absolutely nothing. That is a fact. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Dec 8, 2024
I'm watching with elation the fall of Assad and his barbaric regime.

But also remembering in sorrow the many Syrians who needlessly lost their lives over the last decade because Putin, Iran, and Hezbollah propped up these killers, and we failed to stop them. 1/ THREAD
In my last book, From Cold War to Hot Peace, the longest chapter is called "Chasing Russians, Failing Syrians." In that chapter, I documented how we in the West tried but failed to get Putin to work with us to bring an end to the Syrian civil war. /2
We tried. On numerous occasions Obama tried to convince Putin to work us on a deal. (Most memorable was their meeting in Los Cabos in 2012 which was mostly about Syria.) Clinton & Kerry did the same with Lavrov. Others did too. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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