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kumar saurabh Profile picture
@suru27
Sep 18, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Had started this year annual report notes sharing with lot of pharma companies n someone asked why. In hindsight, you know :). In case one missed, my notes for #laurus #neuland #alembic #ajanta #syngene all in one place

wp.me/p4x5b8-72
factsbeyondnumbers.wordpress.com/2020/06/22/my-…
factsbeyondnumbers.wordpress.com/2020/07/05/my-…
factsbeyondnumbers.wordpress.com/2020/07/05/my-…
Please remember valuation are much different from when they were written n fundamentally, it's all about margin of safety 🙏

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More from @suru27

kumar saurabh Profile picture
Jul 4
#Ultramarine Annual Report 2025 #AR2025 and some fun facts and why we should look beyond numbers visible to all:

Screener PE: 19.7
PE is based on EPS growth derived from P&L. However, if a business has:
1. High accounting depreciation but low actual maintenance
2. Lot of capex done recently resulting in high depreciation with scope of better asset utilization in times to come
PCE (Price to Cash EPS, a term purely coined on own and not in valuation books) could be a better reference point. There are many situations where PCE either based on cash EPS of OCF based is a better representation of valuation.

When we look Ultramarine from OCF perspective, Ultramarine did Rs 90 Cr of OCF,

Earlier PE: 19.7
OCF based PE/PCE: 15.5-16.5

Below is cashflow statement from AR 2025Image
It does not stop here. When one looks at the balance sheet of the company, there is something interesting. It has a non-current investment of Rs 498 Cr

This investment is for the value of 20% stake they hold in sister company Thirumalai chemicals. Image
This is also evident when you look at Thirumalai shareholding. Thirumalai current market cap is Rs ~Rs 2900 Cr. So, this shareholding value comes to Rs 580 Cr as on today. Give 50% holdo discount and this value for Ultramarine comes to Rs 290 Cr Image
Read 15 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Feb 19
Yesterday, I shared this data point of % of companies hitting 52 week low close to ILFS Oct 2018 number.
Question is what is the significance of this data?

Let us explore
The reason to share this data is much more interesting. In current market, people would say - do not catch falling knife, let it bottom etc.

What if you invested in all those days when more than 20% companies were making 52 week low?

Can you backtest return of all such scenarios since last 10-20 years?

Got reminded of my Face2Face video done 4 years back where I presented lot of backtested outputs including how your returns would pan out

Here is this data right from 2006. The red bars are % of companies making 52W lowImage
Though some of these metric are gaining popularity now, we had done lot of exploratory analysis and backtesting around these metric 4-5 years back when I was conceptualizing Scientific Investing . You can watch the full video here:
Read 6 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Feb 9
SMALLCAP 250

For SMALLCAP 250, based on Q3FY25 results so far:
❓Best performing companies?
❓Attractively valued companies?
❓Both attractively valued and best performing?

🧵to answer all such questions to help to filter interesting ideas for research Image
Image
Image
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💡 Companies delivering >15% sales growth Image
💡 Companies delivering >15% sales growth Image
Read 12 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Feb 7
NIFTY NEXT 50

For NIFTY NEXT 50, based on Q3FY25 results so far:
❓Best performing companies?
❓Attractively valued companies?
❓Both attractively valued and best performing?

🧵to answer all such questions to help to filter interesting ideas for research Image
💡 Companies delivering double digit sales growth Image
💡 Companies delivering double digit PAT growth Image
Read 9 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Feb 6
NIFTY 50

For NIFTY 50, based on Q3FY25 results so far:
❓Best performing companies?
❓Attractively valued companies?
❓Both attractively valued and best performing?

🧵to answer all such questions to help to filter interesting ideas for research Image
💡 Companies delivering double digit sales growth Image
💡 Companies delivering double digit PAT growth Image
Read 7 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Jan 11
Aarti Pharmalabs Limited

1/15 🚀 Introducing Aarti Pharmalabs Ltd!
They make APIs, Xanthine Derivatives, and offer CDMO/CMO services for drug development and manufacturing.
Let’s break it down step by step! 🧵👇
2/15 🏢 Company Background:
● Originally part of Aarti Industries, Aarti Pharmalabs became a separate entity in 2022.
● Focus: Manufacturing key pharmaceutical ingredients, intermediates, and offering contract manufacturing for drug development.
● Their goal? To supply high-quality ingredients for medicines, energy drinks, and supplements globally.
3/15 🌿 What are APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients)?
● APIs are the active components in medicines that provide therapeutic effects.
○ Example: The ingredient in cancer, pain relief, and respiratory drugs.
● Intermediates are chemical compounds used to create APIs.
○ Think of intermediates as the building blocks of medicines
➡️ Aarti manufactures both!Image
Read 16 tweets

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