There are 1,000 bank account holders. It’s obvious this only applies to say 10 of them. How do you go about identifying those 10? That’s the question.
Option A - Maximum Stress
Everybody fill a form, whether or not it applies to you. If you have 2 accounts with N5k in each one and you’ve never ever left Nigeria, fill 2 paper forms and take it to your bank.
Option B - Just The Tip Stress
Banks identify who they think might be inside the net. So for example everyone who has ever bought PTA is asked to fill a form. Out of 1,000 this only stresses like 200 people
Option C - Minimal Stress
Banks know who exactly is affected by this. They know the 10 people and simply send them a message asking them to fill the form.
If I know Nigerian regulators well enough, Option A is the one they will go for. But let’s be observing
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This is fascinating indictment as it unwittingly gives an insight into what a lot of the Nigerian ‘elite’ got up to during the (ongoing) currency crisis that started after oil prices crashed in 2014 and Buhari got elected in 2015. Short 🧵
The indictment comes at it from the point of view of Onyema using the US banking system to commit fraud. And that’s all fine and true. But what was happening on the Nigerian side of the ledger was even more interesting
Once forex got scarce, rationing began because Buhari - a simpleton - decided that he would rather do this than devalue the currency. Naturally this caused a thing - the dollar - to have two prices that were increasingly diverging with a mouth watering arbitrage between both
Really promised myself never to comment on him or his stupid business anymore to avoid brain damage to myself. But his stupidity is just everywhere and hard to avoid
I always say - Nigeria’s demographics are an important consideration. Since the country is so young, you can safely guess that a majority of the current population were born since the return of democracy in ‘99. This guy has been the richest Nigerian in that time
Yesterday the Adamawa governor, completely unprovoked, posted a video of him enjoying his holiday abroad (now deleted). I will say Nigeria is probably going through one of its toughest economic crises since the 90s right now
I won’t say I’m an expert on Asian economic development, but increasingly, the thing that stands out to me as a *stark difference* between Asian and African leaders is the amount of pressure leaders are under to deliver. It is, to put it mildly, disturbing
Buhari was a useless president, that is not in doubt. But as someone who lives outside Nigeria, one of the worst things about his presidency has how he made Nigeria completely irrelevant outside of Nigeria. A big country no one cares about
This last election really brought it home to me. Barely any coverage, no one cared at all. Had it not been for Obi who added a dimension of interest, I shudder to think how much worse it would have been.
Consensus was something like - you guys just do your elections, as long as you don’t start fighting and create a refugee crisis, you can do whatever you like. See you again in 4 years.
1. He is not Buhari - Simplistic as this sounds, there is at least 1% economic growth available just because the person in Aso Rock is not Buhari - a congenitally mentally lazy fellow who put in at most 1.5yrs of actual work in his 8yrs in office
With some initial buzz here and there, he can make one or two useful things happen. Subsidy removal is the big and obvious one - painful but should give the govt some breathing room for about 5 mins. He may waste it, of course, but the opportunity will be there
1. Obviously his age and health. He is in reality around 80 and visibly mentally diminished. This body, ravaged by time and self inflicted wounds, is now about to collide with the pressures of the Nigerian presidency. His body will not win.
I expect him to land in hospital for an extended period within 6 - 12 months. This is not wishing him ill. He has essentially been in retirement for 15 years. Now he gets a full time job. We can use travelling as a practical example