tyro Profile picture
Sep 18, 2020 6 tweets 1 min read Read on X
This thread is long but doesn’t really explain anything. The key question for me is what the default position is.

And it’s interesting that even tax experts are struggling with the answer
There are 1,000 bank account holders. It’s obvious this only applies to say 10 of them. How do you go about identifying those 10? That’s the question.
Option A - Maximum Stress

Everybody fill a form, whether or not it applies to you. If you have 2 accounts with N5k in each one and you’ve never ever left Nigeria, fill 2 paper forms and take it to your bank.
Option B - Just The Tip Stress

Banks identify who they think might be inside the net. So for example everyone who has ever bought PTA is asked to fill a form. Out of 1,000 this only stresses like 200 people
Option C - Minimal Stress

Banks know who exactly is affected by this. They know the 10 people and simply send them a message asking them to fill the form.
If I know Nigerian regulators well enough, Option A is the one they will go for. But let’s be observing

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More from @DoubleEph

Dec 14
A lot of ink on Kemi Badenoch and Nigeria this week. If I may be so presumptuous to think I have something to add to the 'debate', here goes 🧵
The first thing to say is that there are millions of Nigerians in Nigeria and outside Nigeria who HATE Nigeria. HATE in bold, uppercase, underline, red font. They have a deep and visceral dislike for the country
I know this because I have some such people in my own family. They have not set foot in Nigeria in *decades* and have no plans to ever do so. No amount of pleading has got them to change their minds. Nigeria means less than nothing to them
Read 19 tweets
Oct 13
This is fascinating indictment as it unwittingly gives an insight into what a lot of the Nigerian ‘elite’ got up to during the (ongoing) currency crisis that started after oil prices crashed in 2014 and Buhari got elected in 2015. Short 🧵
The indictment comes at it from the point of view of Onyema using the US banking system to commit fraud. And that’s all fine and true. But what was happening on the Nigerian side of the ledger was even more interesting
Once forex got scarce, rationing began because Buhari - a simpleton - decided that he would rather do this than devalue the currency. Naturally this caused a thing - the dollar - to have two prices that were increasingly diverging with a mouth watering arbitrage between both
Read 9 tweets
Jul 22
This guy is too stupid to be the richest man in Nigeria or even Africa.
Really promised myself never to comment on him or his stupid business anymore to avoid brain damage to myself. But his stupidity is just everywhere and hard to avoid
I always say - Nigeria’s demographics are an important consideration. Since the country is so young, you can safely guess that a majority of the current population were born since the return of democracy in ‘99. This guy has been the richest Nigerian in that time
Read 12 tweets
Aug 20, 2023
Another day, another one. And trust me, he’s not just ‘changing the straps’ #TheWatchesofSanwo

Image
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Yesterday the Adamawa governor, completely unprovoked, posted a video of him enjoying his holiday abroad (now deleted). I will say Nigeria is probably going through one of its toughest economic crises since the 90s right now
I won’t say I’m an expert on Asian economic development, but increasingly, the thing that stands out to me as a *stark difference* between Asian and African leaders is the amount of pressure leaders are under to deliver. It is, to put it mildly, disturbing
Read 8 tweets
May 28, 2023
Buhari was a useless president, that is not in doubt. But as someone who lives outside Nigeria, one of the worst things about his presidency has how he made Nigeria completely irrelevant outside of Nigeria. A big country no one cares about
This last election really brought it home to me. Barely any coverage, no one cared at all. Had it not been for Obi who added a dimension of interest, I shudder to think how much worse it would have been.
Consensus was something like - you guys just do your elections, as long as you don’t start fighting and create a refugee crisis, you can do whatever you like. See you again in 4 years.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 1, 2023
[
Bola Tinubu - The Optimistic Case 🕊️
]
1. He is not Buhari - Simplistic as this sounds, there is at least 1% economic growth available just because the person in Aso Rock is not Buhari - a congenitally mentally lazy fellow who put in at most 1.5yrs of actual work in his 8yrs in office
With some initial buzz here and there, he can make one or two useful things happen. Subsidy removal is the big and obvious one - painful but should give the govt some breathing room for about 5 mins. He may waste it, of course, but the opportunity will be there
Read 12 tweets

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