In addition to many other points I cover, it’s important to remember that the third leg of the stool may have been cut off, but it was also immediately replaced by the World’s Most Expensive Shim...in the form of ~$5 billion/year in additional subsidies to cover the rate hikes.
It’s also important to note that states covering about ~15% of the individual market *reinstated* the penalty after it was zeroed out, so only ~85% of it was actually effectively eliminated. That makes it even less clear how effective or not it’s been.
In addition, as @bjdickmayhew notes, the advent of #SilverLoading also significantly mitigated some of the premium pricing damage which otherwise would have resulted in more people dropping coverage...by effectively increasing subsidies even more: balloon-juice.com/2020/09/18/no-…
As I noted in my piece, the great irony of the GOP zeroing out the federal mandate penalty is that in doing so, they actually made Obamacare MORE like the ORIGINAL Obamacare. Remember, Obama argued AGAINST a penalty during the 2008 primaries, though he later came around.
Also, as @clinkeyoung highlighted the other day, the mandate penalty served/serves another important function: It discourages people from enrolling in junk plans, since doing so DIDN’T get you off the hook for paying the penalty (with some exceptions): gao.gov/mobile/product…
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With early voting starting in just 65 days in a few states, David asked this very reasonable question. I'm not an expert, but my general understanding of the situation is this: 1/
There've been a number of polls claiming that Harris/etc. would perform a few points better...but that's all THEORETICAL.
We all know that the moment it became a reality the numbers could change dramatically...especially given all the other chaos which would surround it. 2/
The thinking seems to be that Harris has a higher ceiling but also a lower floor. If you're 100% certain that Biden can't win, it therefore makes sense to figure you have nothing to lose.
However, this would upset millions of Dems who voted for Biden in the primary... 3/
Thread. ~20 years ago, one of the minor controversies surrounding then-President George W. Bush was after being warned that something he wanted to do was unconstitutional, he allegedly angrily replied that the Constitution is "just a damned piece of paper!" 1/
I don't know whether this actually happened or not, but regardless of how appalling it my is, on the most basic level that's actually *correct*: The Constitution *in and of itself* *is* "just a damned peice of paper." It's not a talisman. It doesn't have any magical powers. 2/
The power of The Constitution is in the hands of whoever the American People happen to be at any particular point in time.
If those in charge *and* enough of those who aren't either actively want to ignore the Constitution or just don't care enough to defend it, guess what? 3/
🧵 I just had a lengthy conversation with someone who wanted some insight as to how I've been so successful with my Democratic fundraising project over the past few cycles.
(obviously it wasn't called that in 2020 or 2022) 1/Blue24.org
For those unaware, I've raised nearly $8 MILLION *directly* for hundreds of Democratic candidates since 2019. And I've done it *without* a mailing list or texting anyone. I've done it without a PAC or a staff.
It's all been done purely online via social media. 2/
The reason I started "formally" raising money for Democrats online (as opposed to just occasionally retweeting some candidates ActBlue link now & then) is because I kept seeing Dems griping that they didn't trust how the DCCC/DSCC was allocating funds, etc. 3/
I said it's our only *chance* of doing so. It would also require, within the next 4 years, either:
1. Both Alito & Thomas retire (hah) or pass away.
Or...
2. Congress passes legislation to either expand or otherwise modify SCOTUS.
Even THEN, the damage done by the SCOTUS majority (half of which appointed by Trump) *until* either of those things happens would still take YEARS or DECADES to repair.
And some of it can never be repaired.
...all because some of you refused to vote for Hillary in 2016.
As someone pushing HARD for folks to donate to Democrats up & down the ballot, I’d like to note something about the AIPAC money brouhaha re NY-16.
Yes, money CAN make a significant difference in a race, but only up to a point. After that there’s diminishing returns. 1/
My guess is the first few million dollars AIPAC spent on the NY-16 race probably helped Latimer by a point or two. After that, however, it probably didn’t make much difference at all & may have even hurt him a bit due to residents getting sick of the constant ads/mailers etc. 2/
As a different example, in 2020, the poster child for throwing money down the drain was Amy McGrath for Senate in KY. She raised an insane $90 million & lost by 20 points. Even more insane is she probably would have lost by about the same margin if she’d spent 1/10th as much. 3/