The Brazilian left seems lost. With Bolsonaro’s popularity rising to all-time highs, left spends its days debating whether Stalin (!!) had redeeming qualities & vilifying a 26-year-old congresswoman @tabataamaralsp for deviating from dogma. No new ideas, no new faces except...
... for a governor who is literally a Communist (by party affiliation only, but still 🤦♂️). Polls going back to 80s show only 20-25% of Brazilians consistently identify as leftist, I think they’re at risk of wandering through the desert for a very long time
Somebody posted this in comments, re-sharing here
Hoje teve gente xingando de gringo, imperialista e o previsível “agente da CIA” mas NINGUÉM apontando uma ideia ou liderança nova - “Olha, tem o prefeito/legislador de xxxx, acho interessante.”
Quando o único argumento é o ad hominem, o negócio está feio mesmo
Abs e bom fds
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Latin America is now aging faster than ANY region in the world. Chile has a lower birthrate than even Japan.
What is going on?
Latin America's avg birthrate has fallen since the 1960s but a recent acceleration has surprised almost everyone.
Brazil's census turned up 8 mln people fewer than expected. Paraguay's was 20% lower. "We'll basically have to plan for a new Paraguay," a minister there said.
By 2100, if current trends hold, national populations will decline by a third in Chile and Uruguay, a quarter in Brazil, and a fifth in Argentina.
There are obvious risks (pensions) but also opportunities: Businesses are investing in accessible tourism, care homes and robotics, part of a so-called “silver economy” projected to more than double in Latin America to $650 billion by 2033.
Brazil's economy keeps surprising on the upside -- again today, with news that GDP grew 1.4% in Q2. It might grow a healthy 3% again this year. So why are so many investors still worried? A short 🧵
(Graphic via @folha )
Basically Brazil is taxing and spending at very high levels under Lula. Government spending grew a stunning 15% over inflation over last 12 months, the biggest such increase on record. The overall budget deficit (including debt payment) is 10% of GDP -- unsustainable.
Lula's government knows it needs to close the deficit, but wants to do so mainly by raising more revenue. Yet Brazil already has the highest taxes in all of Latin America, according to the OECD -- 33% of GDP, compared to 21% regional average.
For those asking my opinion about the X ban in Brazil -- OK, I think several things, some of them contradictory:
1) The balance between "free speech" and managing misinformation and threats -- and who makes those decisions, governments and/or companies -- is a global debate. No perfect solutions anywhere yet.
2) I believe it's healthy to restrict speech the least possible. I have Brazilian friends, esp on left, who think US 1st amendment is an antiquated relic -- well, I think it's part of what has given us 200+ years of democracy. A feature, not a bug.
Not a popular opinion, but US, Brazil and Colombia are all behaving as if they expect Maduro to stay.
Trying to maintain pressure on him by not recognizing his fraudulent result. But also recognizing sad reality: Maduro controls repressive apparatus & it's been effective (more)
Hopes of a massive popular Venezuelan mobilization against regime seem to have faded due largely to arrests & intimidation. González & MCM in hiding. Fall of dictatorship does not seem imminent, unfortunately.
In that environment, foreign govts with major Venezuela-related interests won't have regime change as 1st priority. US is thinking of immigration & both short-term and long-term control of oil. Brazil & Colombia have the longest borders with Venezuela & act accordingly.
It’s early but it feels like Venezuela’s opposition & its allies abroad are choosing a “Brazilian strategy” rather than an “American strategy” in reacting to Maduro’s stolen election 🧵
The (traditionally) American strategy is big sanctions, diplomatic recognition of true winner (Guaidó or in this case González), immediate focus on mass protests. During Trump years it also involved (absurd, empty) talk of US invasion or vague “all options on table”
The Brazilian strategy, deeply baked into Itamaraty, is dialogue (even when it seems utterly pointless), emphasis on non-intervention and self-determination, continuing to recognize aggressor — playing the long game in hope *conditions on the ground* change (more in a moment)
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be an AMLO puppet, if she wins in Mexico on Sunday?
Everybody has their opinion -- but the recent history of presidential "succession" in Latin America actually paints a pretty clear picture 1/x
2010, Colombia: Alvaro Uribe helps elect Juan Manuel Santos, who campaigned on continuity of Uribe's hard-line security policies -- and then went in a very different direction, seeking & eventually agreeing peace with the FARC. Uribe was enraged.
2017, Ecuador: Rafael Correa helps elect Lenin Moreno, who then overturned many of Correa's leftist policies, governing as a conservative. Correa (now in exile) was enraged.