Thread by @timbray

1/ Big news out of BP last week, but media coverage was light and mostly paywalled. If you care about the #ClimateCrisis, this is essential stuff.
Here’s their actual “Energy Outlook”: bp.com/en/global/corp…
But that’s not the best place to absorb the key message. Read on…

2/ I didn’t find the actual outlook that easy to absorb, it was a little *too* interactive and didn’t tell a story. But BP does tell the story, in two other places. First of all, here’s an overview page, not bad: bp.com/en/global/corp…
But wait, there’s more and better…

3/ The overview introduces the 3 scenarios BP uses to think about the future, which is useful. But it’s a bit of wall-of-text and I think fails to make a few key points. Fortunately…

4/ Go back to the Outlook page at bp.com/en/global/corp… and look at the top right corner, where there’s a video by Chief BP Economist Spencer Dale. Here’s where the goodies are…

5/ I’m a bit allergic to online video and this is 44 minutes worth. But if you care about this stuff, I strongly recommend scheduling a break and watching it…

6/ Dale is a really smart dude. He digs deep into the three scenarios, the commonalities between them. And introduces a fourth, which is really interesting…

7/ “What if policymakers ignore the problem for a few more years then panic and try to do a couple of decades’ worth of decarbonization in a few months?” It’s not pretty. It’s also not unlikely. But still, that’s not the key take-away…

8/ The preso makes it clear that a very high proportion of known fossil-fuel reserves are, as of now, stranded assets. They cannot and will not be used. The basic business model of the oil-&-gas biz is, to quote, “unsustainable”. I’d say “smoking crater”…

9/ In the Telegraph (paywalled), Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes “With a single stroke of the pen, BP has written the obituary of the global petroleum industry.” I don’t think he’s overstating it.

10/ Now, there are places where BP is unsubtly twisting the message to promote their own biz plans (integration, blue hydrogen, etc) but really, a tip o’ the hat to ’em for not just acknowledging but shining a bright light on the emperor's nakedness.

11/ Anyhow, if you still have any oil&gas in your investment portfolio, get out while you still can. And finally…

12/12 The investment, growth, and planet-saving opportunities in renewables and related efforts is probably bigger than even optimists think. If I were a young person with related expertise, it’s the only place I’d want to work.