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Sean T at RCP Profile picture
@SeanTrende
Sep 19, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Since people are already discussing the impact of this on 2020: The smart Trump play happens to be the one with the best outcome for the country: not to nominate anyone. He doesn’t care about Republicans, conservatism, or least of all the court. 1/
Constitutional cons will complain but they are few in number and what are they going to do? Vote Biden? It puts the screws to wavering center-right folk. If he loses, he spends the next four years on his OANN show railing against the Lincoln Project for giving away her seat. 2/
He can even name the person he will nominate. But the alternatives are ramming through a nominee and having the left go apoplectic with 100% turnout, while conservatives can vote on character, or worse, losing the confirmation battle. 3/
And that is the last I am saying about this until there is a funeral. RIP Justice. 4/4

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More from @SeanTrende

Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Oct 23
And FWIW, my meta-take on the election is this: I thought Harris would walk away with it when she got the nomination, because the calendar was so favorable. Nominee -> Veep pick -> Convention -> Debate -> Early Voting starts. 1/
What I missed was that, by not going through a primary process, she never really had a chance to define herself. I have no idea what her elevator pitch is, except Not Trump. Which is not a terrible pitch, but I'm not sure it's a winning one either. 2/
In fact, I thought the debate was a kind of missed opportunity; sure she dragged Donald Trump across the stage by the combover for the final 80 minutes, but you didn't really come away with a great sense of who she is. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Jan 2
On supposed conservative hypocrisy re Gay (setting aside whether plagiarism really =s "canceling") there's a deep split among conservatives going back to the (highly consequential, in hindsight) @DavidAFrench vs. @SohrabAhmari fight. Rufo, Linsday and Gov. DeSantis 1/
are clearly in the Ahmari camp. That camp basically boils down to "if they want a war, we'll give them a war good and hard." There's no hypocrisy there. They're clear that they're coming for lefties, even if it means losing some conservatives in the process. 2/
The conservatives in the French camp have been, from what I can see, ambivalent about the Gay affair. Some are willing to be gracious, some think the plagiarism can be separated from the motivation of those who bring it, some are genuinely undecided. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Dec 14, 2023
The biggest re-alignment of the last 100 yrs -- the sudden movement of Black voters from Republicans to Democrats -- caught both parties utterly flat-footed in 1936. In some ways it made no sense: Democrats still had segregationists throught their party. 1/
But for most, the economic issues trumped the social issues (interestingly, wealthier Blacks stayed Republican until the 1960s). Rs didn't fully appreciate those voters weren't coming back until the 60s. Italians flipped R in 1940 because of a speech FDR gave. 2/
In 2000, everyone, and I mean like @CharlieCookDC and @StuPolitics (both of whom I followed religiously at the time) were skeptical about WV going R. Even at the time, I doubt if anyone appreciated where it would be in 20 years.NH did a similar move in reverse from '88 - '96. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Dec 13, 2023
I've been saying this over and over again, but: This is why inflation is so destructive to presidencies. With unemployment, overwhelming # of people are still employed, lots of unemployed expect to get hired back, etc. When you get your job, it's largely done. 1/
Inflation is different. People at all income levels notice it, whether it's the $10 happy meal or the $150 Outback delivery or [whatever good someone really rich buys and notices, I don't know]. 2/
You notice it when you think about moving, and realize the interest rate on the loan you could get is like 3x what you're paying. If you have credit card debt or floating debt, your interest on that explodes. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Dec 11, 2023
So I finally had the time to sit down and look at the questions below the headline in that WSJ poll and, um . . . wow.

s.wsj.net/public/resourc…
Trump has double digit leads on being able to best handle the economy, inflation, crime, securing the border, the Ukraine War, and the Israeli conflict. Biden has a double digit lead on abortion rights. Everything else is single digits which sounds good except . . . 1/
things like healthcare policy and social security are *supposed* to be double digit Democratic leads. But what really catches my eye are the personal attribute questions. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Aug 9, 2023
Today is my son Judson's 16th Birthday. Sixteen years ago, I thought about how on today we'd drive together to the DMV, get his driver's license, and how proud I'd be of him for passing, and frankly myself for teaching him how to drive, the way my Dad taught me and his him. 1/
That's not how today is going. Judd was diagnosed with autism at age 2.5. At the time, his doctor said he just had a "touch" of autism. I viewed it as a roadbump. To the extent I'm smart, it isn't in a traditional way, it's in a "think way outside the box" way. 2/
(today I recognize that ability to make weird connections no one else does as my own form of autism-ish behavior, which I've been able to redirect in a positive way, but anyway). I knew I could fix this, the way I'd been able to fix almost every other problem I'd encountered. 3/
Read 14 tweets

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