What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?
Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/
And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis...
And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall...
Raoul's Easy Guide to the Business Cycle and Why it Matters:
Today:
ISM leads GDP by 3 months. ISM is around zero GDP growth currently, so GDP should be low Q4 and Q1.
This is where cyclical stocks, RTY and commodities live, and is why they are subdued.
ISM + 5 Months:
But our Lead indicator for ISM has been rising sharply. This is generally where the SPX lives (part cyclical, part growth) and explains the SPX strength vs Russell 2000 (RTY) or commodities...
ISM + 11 Months:
Using our GMI Financial Conditons Index, we can peer 11 months into the future, suggesting a strong year in 2024. This is where the growth assets of NDX and Crypto live. This is why they bottomed before everything else...