Thread by @FiveThirtyEight

Ruth Bader Ginsburg reshaped jurisprudence in the U.S., particularly as an advocate for women’s rights.

She was a cultural and political icon.

Her death, and the fight to fill her seat, will undoubtedly shake an already strained 2020.

53eig.ht/33GdyHP

Now, Republicans will have to decide whether they will break from their “no election year confirmations” stance from 2016. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP

We have only ever had two Supreme Court vacancies closer to Election Day than we have now.

Both times, the incumbent president won reelection and nominated a replacement shortly after Election Day. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP

It’s not clear if a confirmation process could finish before the election. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP

The average confirmation process since the Harry Truman administration has lasted 50 days. There are just 46 days until Election Day, 2020. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP

Ginsburg’s death creates new dynamics if there is an election-related dispute before the Supreme Court.

If the court is 5-3 or 6-3 (with a Trump nominee seated), Dems would need two votes from GOP-appointed justices to win a case. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP

The future of the Supreme Court is now an even bigger electoral issue, and one of the most divisive elections in America history will now likely be even more tense and fraught. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP

If there are six GOP-appointed justices on the Supreme Court, law in America could fundamentally move to the right. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP

If Trump's able to appoint a Supreme Court justice similar in ideology to Gorsuch and Kavanagh, it seems likely that abortion and affirmative action could be severely limited, the ACA overturned and a number of other conservative rulings issued. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP